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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

EDM1-144.GIF?12-0   EDM1-192.GIF?12-0   EDM1-240.GIF?12-0

Slowly getting there, we have a mean continental flow across the UK now by day ten. The GEM ensembles also point towards the winds swinging easterly during week 2.

gens-21-1-240.png   gens-21-1-300.png

So a good broad agreement on the direction of travel towards a blocked set up with drier conditions prevailing. The depth of cold and snow risk will be near impossible to pin point at this juncture but to be honest the model output is putting us in with a good chance during the latter stages of the month. The GEM ens do suggest that the ridge could edge westwards in time as well.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
28 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes in terms of keeping the cold.

Think of it as a boxing match. The SSW has weakened the PV and put it on the canvas but it might get up again before the count.

The second warming might finish it off completely. We hope!

PS interesting ECM ensemble spreads. :)

Cheers I get it, that is exactly the sort of layman's explanation I need :) . 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A very pleasing Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight, especially by T+240!:D:cold:

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So lets Entertain the ECM evolution tonight ( inc JMA ) & put it into some context- because of overwhelming warming & reversal of winds we have

GFS / Overall Mean / IKON / UKMO Versus the ECM / JMA

I would day including background signals 80/20 in favour of the GFS blend - maybe slightly watered down initially.

Remember my initial forecast from Weds last week was peak blocking 20-24, I think for me with the strat showing a double dip the window runs from 20-28 now with retrograde certainly at least a 50/50 horse ( 2.00 if you like decimal )

Lets get the first transitional high buttoned down first though....

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Over all its been a good day from a coldies perspective. Models essentially coming together to move high pressure over or close to the UK as it makes its way to form a high latitude block and hopefully advect some very cold air westwards out, of Scandinavia or Russia.

One would think that as the ssw really starts bite that the charts could even upgrade further.  Looking back through my records I notice that one of the heaviest snowfalls I have recorded was on 5th March 2009 with 5 inches falling in five hours. Which stayed on the ground for four days.

 

 

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I refrained from commenting on the models over the weekend, as I sensed they would struggle, and show off the kilter output. Alas this evening a flip has occurred especially by the ECM when you see such a flip there is a strong signal that something major is happening; and as we know it is the SSW. 

In the reliable, the trigger to a possible much colder blocked outlook is showing its hand, in the ridging of the azores high nosediving NE through the UK heading straight for scandi - history shows some of our coldest and most protracted cold periods have some from such a development. 

Every chance heights will quickly retrogress to the NW, but I'm getting ahead of myself now.

Late Feb is certainly not too late for bitter cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

Very happy to see such a good flip in outputs in a coldies favour, all this from as little as 24 hours of data from the actual reversal, its very possible that with another couple of days of data things could get even better timewise, i still think initialisation 18th but just maybe it might not want to hang around so long before heading to our North. 

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GEFS Ensembles Chart

I'm struggling to see people's optimism on here tonight with a massive spread in solutions from next weekend onwards. From deep freeze to balmy... but probably somewhere in the middle. Rather like it is right now. 

 

 

Edited by nytram43
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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

It may sound like a ramp, im just really excited. But with a major ssw forecast, one that has never been forecast so strong in modern winters and i imagine never been modelled and verified. You would have to think we will see some absolutly bizares model out put, especially when it seems the models are now getting a handle on the reversal. Of course im not saying anything is set in stone either. 

 

Whats more so very interesting is that these model outputs have never handled an ssw on this level, so could be some extremely cold runs what have never been seen!

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
19 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

It may sound like a ramp, im just really excited. But with a major ssw forecast, one that has never been forecast so strong in modern winters and i imagine never been modelled and verified. You would have to think we will see some absolutly bizares model out put, especially when it seems the models are now getting a handle on the reversal. Of course im not saying anything is set in stone either. 

 

Whats more so very interesting is that these model outputs have never handled an ssw on this level, so could be some extremely cold runs what have never been seen!

An SSW may be more statistically likely to bring cold but there's no guarantee it will do; just because we are see good synoptics at this juncture for a cold trend does not mean they will remain in such a manner. There's absolutely no guarantee that the sudden stratospheric warming will provide us with a cold spell, although it will no doubt through us some interesting pub runs with cold a la 2009 and if we're lucky they will verify. As you've mentioned with the intensity this is completely uncharted territory for weather models and for modern weather. The allusions of some (I cba to check if it was you) that we are heading for little ice age of the 16th-18th centuries style weather for the end of February into March seems premature at best and fantastical at worst. Yes these models are exciting at present but there's a good chance they could be the models overplaying the SSW signalling cold element rather than demonstrating it. As nice as these charts are to look at as long as they remain charts they still could be the proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow; especially with some models still backing a warm continuation for most of the UK. 

Edited by Deep Snow please
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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

An SSW may be more statistically likely to bring cold but there's no guarantee it will do; just because we are see good synoptics at this juncture for a cold trend does not mean they will remain in such a manner. There's absolutely no guarantee that the sudden stratospheric warming will provide us with a cold spell, although it will no doubt through us some interesting pub runs with cold a la 2009 and if we're lucky they will verify. As you've mentioned with the intensity this is completely uncharted territory for weather models and for modern weather. The allusions of some (I cba to check if it was you) that we are heading for little ice age of the 16th-18th centuries style weather for the end of February into March seems premature at best and fantastical at worst. Yes these models are exciting at present but there's a good chance they could be the models overplaying the SSW signalling cold element rather than demonstrating it. As nice as these charts are to look at as long as they remain charts they still could be the proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow; especially with some models still backing a warm continuation for most of the UK. 

what models are showing this DSP ... can you eloborate for me please 

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
6 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

what models are showing this DSP ... can you eloborate for me please 

Well the GFS has us at giddy heights of 7-9C as does the ECM in places in the next few weeks.

Edited by Deep Snow please
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 168 ushers in continental air to England..

72469C2C-4D3C-47F3-92E2-3A9E1F1C3AFB.thumb.png.5a5fc36b4c81ff809388146a1a939775.png

A slack usher then Steve:D

giphy.gif:rofl:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Just now, Weathizard said:

Much more energy in the troughing to our north at 120, not a good sign!:nonono:

Chart please, on the go tonight, so no chance to look them up, am on the phone! Cheers!

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