Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw, individual gefs members post day 8 running low res in a reverse flow environment - not to be trusted - use the mean as a guide 

Sure - day 15 not too shabby though!

 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw, individual gefs members post day 8 running low res in a reverse flow environment - not to be trusted - use the mean as a guide 

Yep - and the mean has us in -6c uppers next Wed/Thurs.  We even have a -14c upper run (P20) ,I can't post the picture but has anyone seen a better looking chart than 384 on P20, EXCEPTIONAL.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Ali1977

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

As always the GFS is in the extended 'guess-work' range. It'll be just another wasted hike up the garden path.

[comet]

The gfs still manages to muck it up with a highly unlikely FI but at day 13 plus I suppose it can  be forgiven for losing the plot. Of course a very encouraging run in the earlier stages with quite a potent and snowy easterly. What we want to see now is model inter run consistency with all three converging on the same synoptics.

Just one day out but it looks as if today is the day when the models start to show some consistent downwelling effects from the strat into the troposphere ( don't let us down EC). Ens should  be make for some great viewing tonight I would of thought.

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not after day 6 nick

lets see what ecm op makes of that T168 ridge in the 12z output .......

It might not deliver the bells and whistles of the GFS but as long as it’s moving in the right direction I’d be happy with that.

There does look to be a strong signal to push the high further ne in the earlier timeframe.

[Ice Day]

Here are the short ensembles and they're looking very good.  Interestingly the Control and Op are on the milder side for days 7 and 8 

Edit - and the Op is a gigantic outlier at the end of FI

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by Ice Day

[Captain Shortwave]

I must admit to liking these GIFS, now this is a classic cold spell if things pan out like this.

High pressure moving west and remaining north of the UK throughout, easterly winds veering more north easterly as the high moves towards Iceland and eventually Greenland. Still lots of uncertainty but the general direction looks very good ideed.

[Man With Beard]

Perhaps unfair to compare 00Z and 12Z but as it stands, a totally unreconcilable pair of mean charts.

[bluearmy]

OMEGA ALERT !!!!

 

[Singularity]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sure - day 15 not too shabby though!

 

Best I've ever seen at that range for HLB in a position very good for turning the UK exceptionally cold for the time of year.

Also a great illustration of what the Scandinavian blocking should get up to in response to the warming events taking place over the E. Canada-Greenland region; a gradual retrogression toward Iceland and then Greenland, not the 'eek, an Iberian low, I'd better skedaddle' solution of the GFS 12z.

[chris55]

I think some on here need to factor in the the near record breaking SSW that's playing out way above as we speak, Fantasy Island (FI) is to be taken in a different contex vs your standard long range charts. 

This SSW will have significant effects lower down whithin the next 1-4 weeks, that doesn't mean cold snowmageddon is nailed on,  just that all normal senisible assumptions can be thrown out the window, be that mild blocked or a fridgid easterly  

[TEITS]

28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

add IKON to the list-

 

Expecting ECM To come kicking & screaming tonight...

Just catching up.

Fully agree with you on the ECM. After being a right misery yesterday I am amazed at the change on the output. Just look at the amazing GEFS mean!

 

[mulzy]

GEM singing from the NW Coldies hymnbook!

Edited February 12, 2018 by mulzy

[danm]

Question for some of the more experienced members - how well are the effects of SSW’s handled in the models generally, both in the reliable/semi-reliable timeframe and FI?

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just catching up.

Fully agree with you on the ECM. After being a right misery yesterday I am amazed at the change on the output. Just look at the amazing GEFS mean!

 

The GFS mean ( & the GIF mean avove )

show a classic reversed zonal flow out of europe - typical of a strong negative zonal flow - In terms of the last 40 years you could probably count less that 10 sub -20M/S zonal means ...  & probably 5 or less -30M/S zonal means..

Yes 5.... in 40 years.

Frame it -37M/S...

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Cloud 10]

12z GEM looks to be in order at day 7.

 

[SMU]

Just now, danm said:

Question for some of the more experienced members - how well are the effects of SSW’s handled in the models generally, both in the reliable/semi-reliable timeframe and FI?

poorly but a sharp transition once in view ~180 --

[Ali1977]

Come on ECM - if this follows the latest GFS I expect this will be the happiest this forum has been since 2013!!! Pages after Pages of posts etc...

[carinthian]

for a bit of extra interest, this latest fax chart for this Friday could produce a surprise for parts of the south. The developing low looks to be close to the channel and any heavier precipitation may turn wintry as the air to the north will be quite cold with a mixture of low level surface air  from the near continent mixing  the colder uppers over main land England. Note the 528 dam still in place to the north of the low. Just an outside chance but one that may produce a surprise in the nearer term.

C

[Daniel*]

Great support for OP fab mean chart just how UKMO looks to progress too. Do we have some consistency? Over to ECM if this latches on things will ramp up in here..

[Mike Poole]

The GEFS mean at T+336

I don't think I can recall seeing the 1040 contour on a mean chart beyond T+300.  This is a VERY strong signal.

Edited February 12, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Snowy L]

18 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just catching up.

Fully agree with you on the ECM. After being a right misery yesterday I am amazed at the change on the output. Just look at the amazing GEFS mean!

 

As with 2013, the change in output from models once the actual reversal has occured is like a light switch.

[karlos1983]

Out to +96 and ECM is almost identical to UKMO to me eye 

120 looks bit iffy though

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by karlos1983

[bryan629]

Sorry Guys, could not help this from the CFS .. its just so disgustingly , jaw droppingly good.... Easterly winds from Europe ploughing their way into the Labrador sea.. model porn at its finest 

[mulzy]

ECM is still flat-ish.

Dear oh dear, the drama!

 

Edited February 12, 2018 by mulzy