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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

Wait what... Are we getting excited again, I thought it was the 18th now it's the 21st or even 24th for the cold blast? :D

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
21 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

GFS is back with the garden path showing Easterlies again by t216! ?

I’ve been up the garden path that many times now Ive started naming the slabs ?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

That's a proper easterly flow.:cold::yahoo: but will it disappear on the next run.:rofl:

IMG_0522.PNG

If it does disappear, like a boomerang it will come back..again and again:shok::cold:

After yesterday's misery on here, things are looking up i think:D

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Wait what... Are we getting excited again, I thought it was the 18th now it's the 21st or even 24th for the cold blast? :D

of march or april:p

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
9 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Bonkers gfs run. From this to this in 3 days ;) ?

20180212_170624.jpg

20180212_170655.jpg

Yes, an ice day on the 24th, but then in the upper teens by the 28th!

A sobering reminder of what can happen if an eastern block doesn't allign itself in a way that shuts the Mediterranean air out.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Don't worry about the extreme warmth at the end of the Op run, lets get the cold in first - which if supported by the ENS could still be in around a week.  The Op will be a crazy warm outlier for deep FI warmth, lets hope not for the medium range deep freeze!!!  As Steve Murr has said, I now expect the ECM to flip cold.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

144. 18th February. That's where the blocking begins to develop, 18th is where we start the transition.

5a81cd268fb49_Control144.thumb.png.646e06ad4390d12239aaef4276434950.png

Control run following the OP, heights building North-Eastwards over the UK, low pressure dropping Southwards around the Eastern side of the block and heights lowering over the med. 

Keep an eye on the 18th as each run comes in.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

The end of the run isnt implausible of course. We have a reverse flow pulling those lows into the Atlantic from Russia re-orientating the northern blocking and stopping retrogression to Greenland. Sometimes an extreme reverse flow can work against and let's be honest this an extreme SSW

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

I'm liking the consistency between the Op and Control out to 180.

Op gfsnh-0-180.png?12 Control gensnh-0-1-180.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

GEFS much more amplified at T+162 (12z vs 6z).

gens-21-1-162.png

gens-21-1-168.png

Something starting to firm up with regards SSW fallout - I really think by next Tue/Wed we'll start seeing snow showers coming in from the East.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Just now, Ice Day said:

I'm liking the consistency between the Op and Control out to 180.

Op gfsnh-0-180.png?12 Control gensnh-0-1-180.png

 

I would not be surprised if the cold was brought in a lot earlier in the next few runs!!!seems that way this evening!!the mean looks lovely at 168 hours which means theyre should be some better runs than the op and control!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Something is afoot

Something is even more afoot now after that Gfs 12z!:shok::cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Control at 264, even better than the Op?

gensnh-0-1-264.png gensnh-0-0-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

This is an absolutely incredible T-264 mean

MEAN.thumb.png.64a3ab116bedc84ccf728529534b65a3.png

Control follows OP to boomtown

COntrol.thumb.png.2246f9f8a888547b48ee3bc5b46c2768.png
 

Can I just check with the "following every model as gospel" group that winter is back on again? 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Oh the joys of a trigger shortwave ! :D

Thats what the GFS has and so if this is the correct evolution then strap yourselves in!

For those of a nervous disposition look away, beta blockers at the ready!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wow!

Some big upgrades on the GFS and UKMO.

We can safely say that the models aren't to be trusted before an SSW, its no coincidence that we've seen these changes post the SSW.

I'd expect the ECM to follow these given its already made an embarrassing climbdown and its later output of previous days was destined for the cat litter tray.

Not after day 6 nick

lets see what ecm op makes of that T168 ridge in the 12z output .......

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Control at 264, even better than the Op?

gensnh-0-1-264.png gensnh-0-0-264.png

All it needs to do is avoid the daft realignments of the 12z by keeping the LPs pinned south as they should be giving the SSW forcing.

Had the operational consolidated the blocking to the NW going forward from the below... need I say more?

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Pick of the GFS ensembles 

gens-0-1-264.thumb.png.a218febc76a72afb8409ed0ec54a9f77.pnggens-3-1-264.thumb.png.bc95937b0f25a726cb957ade5a98ce49.pnggens-4-1-264.thumb.png.5a4871af47cd940b361e36e6e5024754.png

gens-7-1-264.thumb.png.bb34b9ea1d5692a3e9bd5fde90d5f1af.pnggens-15-1-264.thumb.png.5155b124d42f46b7d79886d8c9264b1e.pnggens-19-1-264.thumb.png.c801b1ccf49e698045ba620858b526ad.png

I'm fully expecting the ECM to go the same route this evening. 20 minutes until lift off

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z op gives us a brief freeze followed by balmy southerlies and an early BBQ..amazing run...would like a prolonged freeze of course!!:D

12_360_mslp850.png

12_384_uk2mtmp.png

12_384_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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