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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Stark changes by day 6!!!

Yes blue. 

 

Awesome change to be fair. 

 

By 150 were off. (see previous edited post)

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Stark changes by day 6!!!

Certainly are, out to 168

12z iconnh-0-168.png?12-12 0z iconnh-0-171.png?12-00

Mind you this is only the Icon, but it's nice to see and maybe setting the trend for this afternoon??/ (probably not!)

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The ensemble suites over the last couple of runs have trended markedly towards colder solutions with Northern blocking. The ICON is kicking off this afternoons runs by trending the same way, heights reaching towards the pole, Easterly winds beginning to develop.

ICON.thumb.png.3d495284d7c6954178e3705f26c2039a.png

Ensembles leading the way, Det runs a little behind but we should start to see big changes to the outputs between day 6-10.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Is that what one would call a cross polar flow....:shok:

iconnh-0-168.png?12-12

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I am pleased to see the change of output from the ICON. Hopefully the ECM will follow later.

I am also pleased that people here have started to consider this model. A few months ago I was getting laughed at for posting about the ICON charts.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Certainly are, out to 168

12z iconnh-0-168.png?12-12 0z iconnh-0-171.png?12-00

Mind you this is only the Icon, but it's nice to see and maybe setting the trend for this afternoon??/ (probably not!)

Aren't they both 12z?

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
6 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Aren't they both 12z?

No, click on this images, the run is noted top right.

Edit - apologies, you're correct

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Just now, Johnp said:

Aren't they both 12z?

Yes, this is the correc comparison

12z

iconnh-0-168_mqn6.png

00z

iconnh-0-180_led2.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Remember that gfs op is likely to be a bit strong on the northern arm. May take it a few runs to find the European models view. The gem will be of interest if it sides with the euros against the gfs 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

GFS out to 126 and if anything it's slightly more amplified than the Icon

GFS gfsnh-0-126.png?12 Icon iconnh-0-126.png?12-12

The UKMO looking very good at 144 as well.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

I think we can say, game on!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Day 6

UKMO/GFS

UW144-21.GIF   gfs-0-144.png?12

Well both look fairly settled at this point with high pressure building across the UK, it looks like we will be able to support this with lower heights to our south with a decent opportunity to build the high further north further down the line. The UKMO does look better for advecting cold air though with the ridge pushing further north east whilst the high of the GFS is more rounded in shape. It still develops that easterly and begins to turn much colder from the east at day 8. Though I suspect the easterly is going to be transient with the high looking like a holding pattern before retrogression occurs.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Huge upgrades by T+192 on GFS Op. Solid E'ly with added kinks in the flow, albeit without exceptionally cold uppers just yet. Probably quite dry but a country mile's worth of improvements on the 06Z. Seems to follow the general theme...

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

So the GFS has us in an easterly by next Tuesday.  Cold air almost in reach

gfsnh-0-198.png?12 gfsnh-1-198.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

image.thumb.png.5246b702f5e5bf9331330a6d58405729.png

It definitely looks as though the GFS is picking a colder solution this time. Very interesting to see.... the key is to pump that mild air exiting NE Canada to the west of Greenland.

That would inflate the Greenland high like a baloon and finally turn the see saw from a strong positive winter NAO to strong negative winter NAO.

If that happens expect some impressive northern blocking...

EDIT: Maybe a bit of patience needed but the 12z is heading in the right direction

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

yeah, you're going to need it to keep warm....

You stole my thunder bobbydog ? . And yes he'll definitely need it to keep warm -10 850s incoming ?

IMG_1421.PNG

IMG_1422.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

back by popular demand...

appearing on a screen near you...

Winter!

gfsnh-0-210.thumb.png.c89fcf014bd316facbe4a772c11646d1.png

starring - blocking!

tonights episode... the beast from the east!

gfsnh-1-216.thumb.png.1c2671270d290f93adda6f3657f8a57a.png

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