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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

I wonder if we will see that upper ridging on the ecm op at day 7 become the focal point of an accelerated attempt by the nwp  to build something that could withstand the northern arm prior to the T300 + period where we currently see the means responding

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wonder if we will see that upper ridging on the ecm op at day 7 become the focal point of an accelerated attempt by the nwp  to build something that could withstand the northern arm prior to the T300 + period where we see the means respond. 

I agree, if it doesn't then the means will look very different in a couple of days or so. Running through the gefs etc you can see that a number build from that point hence the means are as they are. Maybe gem showing the way?

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wonder if we will see that upper ridging on the ecm op at day 7 become the focal point of an accelerated attempt by the nwp  to build something that could withstand the northern arm prior to the T300 + period where we currently see the means responding

I wondered exactly the same. Going from +144 to +168 it was trying hard but further progress always looked like it would be (just?) overridden by the jet going over the top. It wouldn’t take much of a tweak to go off on a more favourable path from there.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just a note that the eps not wanting to drop the AO sig negative until post 20th is now looking like a better call then the gefs.  Whether the more recent runs, (the last one failed to go neg at all ! ) are too miserable will be revealed over the next 24 hours.  The 00z  gefs and geps are showing the AO/NAO (moreso) dropping markedly beyond 23rd. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Pretty good agreement between GFS and ECM all the way out to la la land.

Only trouble is they are both dire for cold.

If it weren't for the SSW I think it would be very quiet in here. 

I'm hoping for the Azores high to displace West quicker than currently modelled, between 20th and 23rd, which could give us a cold end to Feb.

Barring that it is hoping for the SSW to do its thing and bring a very cold first half of March.

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Something is afoot, I've been posting stunning GEFS charts in the extended range for days now,  I believe our (coldies) patience will ultimately be richly rewarded!:):cold:

Hi Frosty. 

I really hope something is afoot in the extended range. It's been the same all winter though.... I can remember the end of November that there were signs of a cold spell showing for mid december, then that moved to show the Christmas period then it was put back to the period just after the start of the new year then again moved to the middle of Jan then again it moved to early Feb..... Then again moved to mid Feb and now we're looking at hopefully end of feb or sometime in March.... yes we've had some brief cold shots but mainly from North westlies which have produced snow to some regions dare I say it North of the M4 lol..... I HATE that road but all the occasions the models have been predicting bitter Northerly  or Easterlies have never come off. Maybe a brief Northerly but nothing that's lasted more than a day or 2.  I'm not giving up hope but it's so hard for us to get into a proper cold spell these days and for the models to get it Wright when its not a straight atlantic weather pattern with the usual low pressures coming in from the West. 

 

Keep up the great posts frosty, always love reading them and the way you post images as well to show what is being forcast...☺?

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Interestly thie latter stages of this mornings ecm look similar to what the Gfs was showing on its quick route to cold runs a few days back. Namely the azores high ridging across the uk towards scandinavia. Could it be that the ECM is simply homing in on a similar ultimate outcome to the cold gfs runs but just at a more sedate pace.  Just a thought.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Ah well ,to add insult to injury perhaps an early taste of spring from both ecm and gfs out at day ten:rofl:

h850t850eu-3.png

ecmt850.240-2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon

Jesus. Even I need a shot of Kraken with the models this morning. Dismal viewing. Lucky I have blind hope that things will change for the better the next few days, this is more tense than some choice episodes of Breaking Bad.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Incredible model watching recently we have gem which along side the jma is best for cold solutions.

Something got to give,

but I'm really disappointed to see consistent runs from the ECM and GFS which are similar.

But then I expect with such massive changes in the stratosphere then perhaps it's just background signals.

I was pretty confident last week but now I'm 50/50 maybe to little to late.

And perhaps an early spring could well be the outlook.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

At last we’re seeing some convergence in the models. Unfortunately they’re converging on a bit of a waiting game with the high not able to get far enough north at this point.

As BA has noted you can tell by the ECM spreads that we’re seeing some solutions dropping some colder air south to the east which then gets advected west by day ten.

Overall there’s now a bigger cluster of east ne flows showing past the 20th February in the ECM ensembles.

That’s good news then.

Hopefully we will see a white warning from you fairly soon then :yahoo::pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
13 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Ah well ,to add insult to injury perhaps an early taste of spring from both ecm and gfs out at day ten:rofl:

h850t850eu-3.png

ecmt850.240-2.png

If we cant have cold & Snow , i would settle for early spring:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That’s good news then.

Hopefully we will see a white warning from you fairly soon then :yahoo::pardon:

I think I’m going to ditch the code system! It’s gathering dust! :D

Its quite a climb down from the ECM op , looks like the once superstar has made another couple of films which bombed at the box office! 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Looking at the ECM ensembles, the key timeframe seems to be 24/25th February for a majority to go blocked to the north/east. Far from a consensus though and not clear if it would be a cold block for the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

No UKMO extended this morning I'm afraid it hasn't updated for whatever reason

t144 shows high pressure starting to move over the UK settling things down

UKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.6e9cf3867a0970e6e666db3b27c43432.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

At last we’re seeing some convergence in the models. Unfortunately they’re converging on a bit of a waiting game with the high not able to get far enough north at this point.

As BA has noted you can tell by the ECM spreads that we’re seeing some solutions dropping some colder air south to the east which then gets advected west by day ten.

Overall there’s now a bigger cluster of east ne flows showing past the 20th February in the ECM ensembles.

Day 10 onwards though Nick, its always at that timeframe! And as it comes into a reliable timeframe they pick up complications such as shortwave/trough disruption/phasing ect, it's a rinse repeat UK cycle... 

 

Not to be overly negative I just struggle to keep being positive about long term when something always pops up and ruins it as it gets towards the more reliable timeframe

 

 

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking at the ECM ensembles, the key timeframe seems to be 24/25th February for a majority to go blocked to the north/east. Far from a consensus though and not clear if it would be a cold block for the UK.

Looks potentially colder than it did for the past few runs as the e euro uppers go neg with the blocking gaining strength and traction (and some members drifting towards Iceland) 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think I’m going to ditch the code system! It’s gathering dust! :D

Its quite a climb down from the ECM op , looks like the once superstar has made another couple of films which bombed at the box office! 

At least we coldies have a sense of humour, essential in a British winter:D..still extremely encouraging longer term signals..we just need to ride this out and then let the good times roll!!:):cold:

Ps..thanks for your kind comments TheBeastFromTheEast:cold::)

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

No quick road to cold I'm like the gfs with a  southerly then south easterly high pressure moving north/east  baby steps I'm keeping my towel in hand. Over  the years I have seen us a southerly then south easterly then cold easterly we might have to wait a bit longer for that easterly...:D

IMG_0518.PNG

IMG_0519.PNG

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