Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[stotm]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM and GFS at complete loggerheads again, this isn't good for us lot knowing whats going on.  I wonder where MOGREPs stands - cold by next weekend, or with the ECM.  

It’s because they don’t have clue on how to deal with what’s going on so it’s more or less random output. The both say cold weather coming then one says it’s not then it is. Sadly we have to wait as 5 days plus forecast is not going to be correct at all. 

[nick sussex]

Well after an upturn on the other outputs the ECM is a shocker .

The differences re the PV are unbelievable between it and the other outputs.

We’re fast running out of time and if the ECM is correct then it’s going to be a long haul to cold and we’re left chasing exceptional synoptics to be able to deliver anything meaningful into early March.

 

[Stuie]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Well after an upturn on the other outputs the ECM is a shocker .

The differences re the PV are unbelievable between it and the other outputs.

We’re fast running out of time and if the ECM is correct then it’s going to be a long haul to cold and we’re left chasing exceptional synoptics to be able to deliver anything meaningful into early March.

 

What I noticed though Nick is that the ECM actually does spill some of the Canadian Vortex out whereas it hadn`t before. You can`t argue that there isn`t some progress on that front.

[blizzard81]

Personally I was very happy when the gfs 06z op went the same way as the ecm. I find the gfs 06z op absolute cannon fodder. I would have been more worried if it had shown winter wonderland. Luckily it didn't and its much more reliable 12z brother did. That's enough for me to doubt the ecm for now. 

Edited February 11, 2018 by blizzard81

[nick sussex]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

What an absolute merry go round Nick. It doesn't get any easier does it lol. 

If the ECM verifies it will be like the Titanic , only the hardened coldies in the SSW band still playing the cold tune as the rest of us fight for the life boats!

The big problem with the ECM is that it’s so different that it’s not a case of the odd tweet to get it to meet the others.

 

[Frosty.]

Time to wheel the Gem out..it looks good but then anything would compared to the last 3 or 4 Ecm runs!

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well after an upturn on the other outputs the ECM is a shocker .

The differences re the PV are unbelievable between it and the other outputs.

We’re fast running out of time and if the ECM is correct then it’s going to be a long haul to cold and we’re left chasing exceptional synoptics to be able to deliver anything meaningful into early March.

 

To illustrate the differences in the pv. Wouldn't you say that looking at the ecm the pv is intact as such the ssw has had little effect? Or that the ecm is yet to really model the ssw? I get that output differs as you go further out but not to this level. One being more progressive etc but this?

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

What I noticed though Nick is that the ECM actually does spill some of the Canadian Vortex out whereas it hadn`t before. You can`t argue that there isn`t some progress on that front.

I admire your attempts to polish the ECM txrd! 

Its awful, I wish someone could just shut down the servers at ECM central . It’s beginning to grate on me.

I’d rather we could just stay in our hope bubble for the timebeing !

[tight isobar]

Ecm 'clearly' not yet factoring in the responces!!..

And has mjo- forcing..as well as atomspheric-ssw- level responces....miss managed!!!!

It looks to have tracktion and movement...like not knowing your ar#e from ya elbow!!!...

Strange how the amp-mod ...doesnt want to ...AMP!!!!

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Look at the AO profile here.

I get the fact we may see the tropospheric vortex wind up as the warming hits above but Shirley by this point and time we would expect to see a much more pronounced negative AO setting in. Wouldn’t we??

That run ends +3 ! Implausibly high based on the 00z eps but not so far away from the 75% spread. Meanwhile the gfs is around -2/-2.5 at that point. That’s a bit on the low side wrt the gefs

the AO/NAO numbers from the eps are so at odds with the gefs that one has to assume the modelling beyond what we consider reliable (day 5/6) is very uncertain. 

 

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I admire your attempts to polish the ECM txrd! 

Its awful, I wish someone could just shut down the servers at ECM central . It’s beginning to grate on me.

I’d rather we could just stay in our hope bubble for the timebeing !

Nick, if a turd changes shape then it has to be mentioned! 

I know, bloody rubbish but nice to see the main area in question regarding the SSW has had an effect, or to the point, a visual effect lol

[snowfish1]

As has been said countless times fluctuations and variations on a theme will be shown by models across the board. tomorrow, as I understand it, will be the earliest we can expect to see anything likely to manifest in the medium to long term. Particularly with reference to the ssw. It comes as no surprise therefore, that they all differ in their outputs 

Edited February 11, 2018 by snowfish1

[Duane S.]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That run ends +3 ! Implausibly high based on the 00z eps but not so far away from the 75% spread. Meanwhile the gfs is around -2/-2.5 at that point. That’s a bit on the low side wrt the gefs

the AO/NAO numbers from the eps are so at odds with the gefs that one has to assume the modelling beyond what we consider reliable (day 5/6) is very uncertain. 

 

Cheers BA. Yep, I thought it looked very positive indeed (and not ‘positive’ in the good way).

That’s quite a range between ops. Shannon in effect and will be for a little while I think.

[Banbury]

Wouldn’t it be funny if there was no blocking whatsoever and the MJO thingy and SSW you know what gave us nothing 

 

Well not funny but a lesson I guess 

[bluearmy]

Just glancing through the ec strat charts from that run and the differences remain clear. The Canadian vortex continues to influence the Atlantic sector. However, there are some changes from the previous run and the model could be sniffing a rather different solution in the 7/10 day period come tomorrow.  We will see if the eps are hungrier for am0lifiation in the mid term shortly  

[sebastiaan1973]

A chart made by Paul123 (NL, https://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=Forum&articleid=138&reference=ref261795&threadpage=7)

Day 30 is SSW taking place. Black line is AO blue line temperature De Bilt. On average we see a drop in AO. I find it hard to understand the EC 10 day NH chart.

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

It’s great that our sense of humour remains intact ! Indeed that’s one of the best things about this thread .

 

Agreed on that point.

If the ECM continues on it`s merry way after tomorrow, i.e. It must start to have data from the SSW (hoping this weekends output was just chaotic) then there is a problem. What I am hoping for more is that the GFS continues and firms up more on it`s trend. Really really interesting weeks output coming up. 

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

just  watched  country  file  nouthing evciting on there  by the end of the week+10  no mention  of any ssw  coming  our way!!

There was never anything on the cards by Friday anyway (bar possibilities for some snow for some on Tuesday) and the SSW itself is not actually coming our way...

[Summer Sun]

Some precipitation in the north from UKMO at t168 but around South Yorkshire southwards some very usable weather on offer get any sunshine and it would quite pleasant

[Frosty.]

Even though the Ecm 12z is very poor again, the Gfs certainly isnt, indeed it's magnificent for most of low res and the Gem is pretty nice too..there's still reasons to be positive about week 2 onwards!

[tight isobar]

18 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

I think that those who say your posts are a little tricky to understand are just not ingest on signif reqd shrooms and needs wait on filter. Later into mind then.....see blizzard formlate on trop downspike. Await!

Indeed...

I type as i feel...would be good if some other moaning -pessimistic-/ post liking- lamb followers tryed the same ..aye!??

And factored in cross data...without seeing what they assume-...without any decent analysis- and/or facts!!!

 

[Purga]

The SSW does look to be of historic magnitude and we should expect to see some pretty extreme output from the models methinks. Of interest is the broader 45-75N zonal index. It shows the historic reversal of winds. As this is an unknown situation for the models, it'll be fascinating to see how they handle it in the coming weeks! The ride is just beginnig!

[nick sussex]

The UKMO at T168hrs hrs not quite as good as the GFS but the transition from day 6 to day 7 and the upstream pattern will push the ridge further ne later. 

Compared to the ECM the UKMO is like filet steak compared to the ECM which is like eating tough shoe leather !

Edited February 11, 2018 by nick sussex

[tight isobar]

Just now, Purga said:

The SSW does look to be of historic magnitude and we should expect to see some pretty extreme output from the models methinks. Of interest is the broader 45-75N zonal index. It shows the historic reversal of winds. As this is an unknown situation for the models, it'll be fascinating to see how they handle it in the coming weeks! The ride is just beginnig!

Good to the point post.

Refreshing!

[lorenzo]

Thank you to @Daniel Smith for re-supplying the link, laptop death > new laptop bookmarks out of date ! Life Hack - Export and save bookmarks once a week!

ECM Ens from this morning at the 168 time highlighted in the strat post, this time frame is the yardstick for where we move forward on modelling, both from a what models are showing right now to that point strat wise given Siberian vortex travel. Simultaneously, from that point in time - where the models go, given proper hit on Canadian vortice. Will be interesting to watch the ENS react. 

Loved plugging this into gogle translate, Scandi ens group...

 

 

Edit - Speaking of bookmarks - if anyone has a good AO/NAO Ens plot link that is not CPC Sprd one please send a sticky note! Same goes for AAM TIA

Edited February 11, 2018 by lorenzo