Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[sundog]

The ssw is the equivalent of the models having their drink spiked. They don't know what's going on. Wait till  a few days till they sober up and come round.

[MattStoke]

So the chance of cold weather more than a week away is gone because the models, which are useless more than a week ahead at the best of times, don't show cold for that time period. Forgetting the highly complex situation of a SSW that is only just getting underway.

Watching people fret about this is ridiculous. 

[winterof79]

24 minutes ago, terrier said:

Looking like the ecm might just have the handle on the ssw that is taking place. It’s been pretty steadfast for last 3 runs now. Seems like the gfs is slowly moving towards the ecm solution as well. Just because we have a ssw doesn’t guarantee cold to our shores. And it seems we are going to be on wrong side of any blocking if the ecm is on the money. 

What blocking? If you believe the current output there is no effect on the Vortex from the SSW

I am not convinced of any out put at present.

[Johnp]

14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This is just painful ?. GFS is now gone titts up . 

Im taking few days off . See what the models say by Tuesday . 

You'll be back on by tea time and you know it.

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

Looking very good for the start of half term next weekend on the GFS 6z, dry with some sunshine and not too cold so if correct there'd be no worries about snow/ice for those going on holidays especially in southern UK. The second half of the week could turn more unsettled though with Atlantic lows moving through bringing wind & rain 

[Ruzzi]

8 minutes ago, Bobby93 said:

All the models look pants for cold however reliable/unreliable they are. 

This SSW might give us a cold march, but for February I'm losing hope.

Don't lose hope, there's 17 days of February still to come, for some perspective, T384 on the GFS is only the 27th of February, there is plenty of time left. 

A very sudden flip or turnaround on the models at T144 is certainly not out of the question post reversal.

its a wait and see situation but not quite panic stations for a wee while yet. 

[blizzard81]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Astonished that so many think the modelling won’t have a decent handle on the initial response.

anyway, gfs headed for the middle ground - will ecm revert there too or will gfs have further to go ??

That's a very diplomatic response. A more direct comment would be to say there's quite a lot of denial on this forum this morning lol. 

[Ice Day]

Well not the best start to the day across the models.  The GFS early amplification appears to have gone for now, although this could return on later runs.  However, the points made last night by Catacol (and others) still stand, we are potentially looking at a record breaking wind reversal along with many other significant background signals so if there's one certainty, the models are going to be uncertain, providing anything between wintry nirvana and mild westerly dross. 

Which way will it go in the end, who knows but I'm sure the models will look different again tonight, for better or worse.  Time to shut the laptop and enjoy the day before heading back here full of hope for the 12z's.

 

[Troubleatmill]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They know - they are modelling it in the first place !!

They could struggle a bit with the fact that it’s so strong but they know it’s coming and how big it is 

 

Looking at the O6z could it be they dont have a handle on the talked about QTR ( ie will it happen) rather than the SSW as very little is showing on the O6z Op

[TEITS]

I have already thought of some alternatives to what SSW means.

[Johnp]

If this is the outcome, I don't think I'll bother monitoring the stratosphere next winter.

[Rollo]

The comparison between yesterday's GFS 0600z charts and today's is so vast that to me it proves at this moment in time anything can and might still occur.

It is fair to say that some preceding charts over the last few days have given high hopes which may well be dashed but as far As I am concerned we are in uncharted territory and despite my own impatience we will have to wait  for several more charts to unfold.             

[Johnp]

Just now, TEITS said:

I have already thought of some alternatives to what SSW means.

Sudden south westerlies.

In all seriousness, something must be amiss here?

[Bobby93]

2 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

Don't lose hope, there's 17 days of February still to come, for some perspective, T384 on the GFS is only the 27th of February, there is plenty of time left. 

A very sudden flip or turnaround on the models at T144 is certainly not out of the question post reversal.

its a wait and see situation but not quite panic stations for a wee while yet. 

Let's hope so, it's just hard to have much faith in the models even when they're showing cold of late.

This is our last big chance of the winter, time is ticking now.

[The Beast From The East]

19 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 06z still showing back edge snow possibilities during Tuesday

But I don't want back edge snow, i want full frontal middle and back edge snow please lol.. ?☺

[Duane S.]

As I said over a week ago, this place won’t be for the faint hearted once it gets underway. 

Even if we get off to a bad start, it will still be absolutely fascinating to see how this plays out. Many twists and turns to come. 

‘If you don’t like the heat, get out of the kitchen’ as the old saying goes. Probably not the best one to use on this forum though...

 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Well not the best start to the day across the models.  The GFS early amplification appears to have gone for now, although this could return on later runs.  However, the points made last night by Catacol (and others) still stand, we are potentially looking at a record breaking wind reversal along with many other significant background signals so if there's one certainty, the models are going to be uncertain, providing anything between wintry nirvana and mild westerly dross. 

Which way will it go in the end, who knows but I'm sure the models will look different again tonight, for better or worse.  Time to shut the laptop and enjoy the day before heading back here full of hope for the 12z's.

 

Quite correct.It is the magnitude of the reversal that the models will have to adapt to.This mornings output bar the GEM shows no significant QTR which I find rather bemusing but what do I know.

NOBODY on here knows wether they are capable of compensating for this one off event.

Sit back and enjoy the commentary of the rollercoaster.

[Mucka]

As I said this morning, ECM will not return to the Atlantic ridge and GFS 06z will wipe it out. GFS has basically been 24hrs behind ECM

But!

I think this mornings ECM is very wrong day 5/6 onward and we will see a new trend toward Atlantic blocking again soon, just at a later date than ECM initially modelled.

My guess is that ECM has jumped the shark with its interaction of trough and Azores high and will make big corrections in future output while GFS will continue on the path it is now on but slowly displace the Azores high West in future runs.

I think we could see very strong Atlantic ridging suddenly develop after the 20th, rough guess around the 22nd.

If this idea has any merit at all such an evolution will likely show up within GFS ensembles first.

That is my big call of the year - I will now reinforce my door and go ex directory.

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by Mucka

[jethro]

If I've got this right (and there's a fair chance I haven't) there's a choice of what we can expect from the SSW - either, cold and potentially snowy nirvana or warm southerly winds and an early spring? Personally speaking, that sounds like a win/win situation to me. An end to wet and windy dross with leaden grey skies gets my vote. Yes, I'm a snow lover but I'm also a lover of t-shirt weather with warm sunshine on my skin too, either one will do.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

4 minutes ago, jethro said:

If I've got this right (and there's a fair chance I haven't) there's a choice of what we can expect from the SSW - either, cold and potentially snowy nirvana or warm southerly winds and an early spring? Personally speaking, that sounds like a win/win situation to me. An end to wet and windy dross with leaden grey skies gets my vote. Yes, I'm a snow lover but I'm also a lover of t-shirt weather with warm sunshine on my skin too, either one will do.

I agree any of those would be OK, either way it makes a big change from the Atlantic storms we've had in recent February's 

[Stormeh]

34 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS 06z still showing back edge snow possibilities during Tuesday

It also shows a possible full on snow event for NW England and Scotland 

[pureasthedriven]

12 minutes ago, jethro said:

If I've got this right (and there's a fair chance I haven't) there's a choice of what we can expect from the SSW - either, cold and potentially snowy nirvana or warm southerly winds and an early spring? Personally speaking, that sounds like a win/win situation to me. An end to wet and windy dross with leaden grey skies gets my vote. Yes, I'm a snow lover but I'm also a lover of t-shirt weather with warm sunshine on my skin too, either one will do.

Worst case scenario would be a slow burner trop response a la Jan 2013 and we end up with a cold and bland start to spring without snowy possibilities nor without that much craved for early warmth that (I at least) tend to look for around mid-March. 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Some people seriously need to relax - just let it play out and enjoy the rollercoaster without getting sucked in with charts so far out. 

Summer Sun just posted in the Model Tweets Thread - with all the talk of the SSW here it is below. 

If you are craving snow/cold weather stay positive - at least it won’t be mild...

Have a good Sunday! 

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by Mr Frost

[Snowy L]

I wouldn't trust any model that shows a complete absence of any northern blocking. Ignore our small area of the hemisphere, the ECM mean is showing zero northern blocking. With stratosphere easterly winds of 25-30m/s at high lattitudes, I don't find no northern blocking improbable, I find it impossible.

[Summer Sun]

D10 from GFS and ECM

Temps really struggling under that high from GFS 5c tops ECM higher single figures some places getting into low double digits