Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I have often found the weekend runs to suddenly go out of kilter, especially with regards to cold spells which look more than likely. However, by the time we get to the Monday 12z runs, they flip back to cold or what they were originally showing on the previous Friday. Is there less data available to the models over the weekends? 

I've found that they go out of kilter at t120plus on Sunday's, Wednesday's, and Friday's oh and the other 4!!! 

[Neilsouth]

When does the warming take place exactly?

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

When does the warming take place exactly?

Well here’s +0 hrs

it’s on like donkey kong! 

So models may start getting a better handle on things soon! I urge patience, usually we would be waiting weeks for a trop response, this time not the case. Come late March there could be a few wishing it never happened lol

Edited February 11, 2018 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

The gfs is definitely moving towards ecm unfortunately. I have just compared yesterday's 06z 156hr chart to today's 132hr chart. Yesterday's showed ridging up towards Greenland but today's shows no ridging at all. 

[ALL ABOARD]

 

Just now, blizzard81 said:

The gfs is definitely moving towards ecm unfortunately. I have just compared yesterday's 06z 156hr chart to today's 132hr chart. Yesterday's showed ridging up towards Greenland but today's shows no ridging at all. 

Agreed although I think this run the high is going to be sucked uptowards scandi? 

[ICE COLD]

GFS 6z and ECM day 6 . GFS still Better in the Atlantic than ecm . 

[blizzard81]

The theme of this winter (like most winters) is the northern arm of the jet being too strong and always riding over the top. Let's just hope that the models are overestimating this just because it has been a dominating factor so far this winter. 

[booferking]

Gfs clearly shifted to ECM run by run flat as pancake.

[terrier]

Looking like the ecm might just have the handle on the ssw that is taking place. It’s been pretty steadfast for last 3 runs now. Seems like the gfs is slowly moving towards the ecm solution as well. Just because we have a ssw doesn’t guarantee cold to our shores. And it seems we are going to be on wrong side of any blocking if the ecm is on the money. 

[lassie23]

Best to bin today's output, I think by Wednesday the models should have a more accurate idea of what is to come and if they reflect today's output by them, best bin winter too, in fact bin everything.

[Chris101]

6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

When does the warming take place exactly?

Its happening now, referring back to catacols post from last night, reversal should start in around 24 hours, it is i believe that by Monday/Tuesdays outputs they will start to realise how strong a reversal it is.

[Day 10]

Here is 144 ECM, GFS, GEM, UKMO for ppl to compare side by side.

 

[Neilsouth]

4 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Its happening now, referring back to catacols post from last night, reversal should start in around 24 hours, it is i believe that by Monday/Tuesdays outputs they will start to realise how strong a reversal it is.

Wow amazing  - Ta

[bluearmy]

Astonished that so many think the modelling won’t have a decent handle on the initial response.

anyway, gfs headed for the middle ground - will ecm revert there too or will gfs have further to go ??

[Weathizard]

Oh dear oh dear oh dear, Massive change on the GFS at 5/6 days out, amazing how when it comes to cold pretty much an entirely ensemble suite can be wrong.

People can roll out the same old cliches but fact is this looks like another let down, and winter is fast running out and we will be left chasing day 10 charts as usual.

[Weather-history]

11 minutes ago, terrier said:

And it seems we are going to be on wrong side of any blocking if the ecm is on the money. 

ECM is actually not showing any northerly blocking at all. ECM mean at 240

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Its happening now, referring back to catacols post from last night, reversal should start in around 24 hours, it is i believe that by Monday/Tuesdays outputs they will start to realise how strong a reversal it is.

They know - they are modelling it in the first place !!

They could struggle a bit with the fact that it’s so strong but they know it’s coming and how big it is 

 

[ICE COLD]

This is just painful ?. GFS is now gone titts up . 

Im taking few days off . See what the models say by Tuesday . 

[January Snowstorm]

Well we have model consistency now as the gfs is following ecm route. Mild in a weeks time who knows after that.

We just have to hope they are all wrong.

Snowing here at the moment my 4th snowfall here this Winter from a northwesterly. Not bad for the South coast of Ireland

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

They know - they are modelling it in the first place !!

They could struggle a bit with the fact that it’s so strong but they know it’s coming and how big it is 

 

I do agree with you BA but IF said on twitter that the models won't have hold of the correct solution with so much going on just saying ? 

[Weather-history]

GFS 06z still showing back edge snow possibilities during Tuesday

Edited February 11, 2018 by Weather-history

[Day 10]

Surely this:

and then this:

would not equate to this:

[Bobby93]

All the models look pants for cold however reliable/unreliable they are. 

This SSW might give us a cold march, but for February I'm losing hope.

[Sneachtastorm]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

 

 

However I am considering an alternative and this is one for the stratosphere experts now - could the record strength reversal in some way spin up the displaced Canadian daughter vortex more than would usually be seen following a split SSW? TIA

 

You know its bad when the excuses begin. Perhaps all the background connections are just fantasy. 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I do agree with you BA but IF said on twitter that the models won't have hold of the correct solution with so much going on just saying ? 

Should be decent out to next weekend so the initial quick ridge now looks like a fail - we could see a second attempt upstream around day 7/10 which isn’t currently showing