Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[nick sussex]

The ECM is like a bad dream this morning!

The problem with it is you're a very long way from anything remotely cold by day ten, even though its a milder outlier later the op continues to plow out underwhelming runs and I thought last nights was bad.

The GFS is less amplified and seems to be going backwards in the earlier timeframe.

The SSW hasn't happened yet so I'd give it a few more runs before reaching for the Prozac but we don't have weeks to wait for a trop response that can deliver.

 

[mulzy]

Disappointing medium range charts this morning.  ECM Det continues with it's flatter evolution which has support from its ensemble suite.

It's fair to say this could be a slow burner...

EPS Day 10 mean

GEFS Day 10 Mean

GEPS Day 10 Mean

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, TEITS said:

As I have said many times in the past. It doesn't matter how good the background signals are, it means absolutely nothing if these aren't translated into decent charts in the model output at a sensible timeframe.

If the ECM is right then my word we still have so much to learn!

Indeed, the Ecm shows an early taste of spring, the polar opposite of the background signals, you could say the Ecm has gone teits up in a manner of speaking!

Edited February 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is like a bad dream this morning!

The problem with it is you're a very long way from anything remotely cold by day ten, even though its a milder outlier later the op continues to plow out underwhelming runs and I thought last nights was bad.

The GFS is less amplified and seems to be going backwards in the earlier timeframe.

The SSW hasn't happened yet so I'd give it a few more runs before reaching for the Prozac but we don't have weeks to wait for a trop response that can deliver.

 

And that is the concern nick . The tweet from IF says the ecm just brings the easterlies in later but it's hard to see on the day 10 chart how we go cold from there ? 

[shotski]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Disappointing medium range charts this morning.  ECM Det continues with it's flatter evolution which has support from its ensemble suite.

It's fair to say this could be a slow burner...

EPS Day 10 mean

GEFS Day 10 Mean

GEPS Day 10 Mean

 

Maybe things will take a little more time to affect the output. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For cold the ECM is awful no doubt about it.  Even in the nearish term.  The GFS has watered a little as has the GEM though they build the block and Easterlies come.  Yesterday’s GFS was utter perfection, and that is the point there.  I think like the rest of winter the models will move from each end of the scales to find a middle ground

 

BFTP

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, s4lancia said:

Well this morning’s runs will do nothing to quell the nerves of us long suffering snow seekers. Under more normal circumstances, following on from yesterday, this would have to be considered as a potential trend for the worse.

But... these are ANYTHING but normal circumstances. We have a record breaking wind reversal about to take place in the next 24 hours and currently forecast to remain reversed for a stunning 10 days or so. This combined with the highly amplified MJO currently causing havoc to the Nina state in the Pacific and sending waves polewards through the sub tropics. A second warming due in ten days. An already record breaking eddy heat flux. This is fairly exceptional.

This is not only going to have a major impact on default weather patterns but right here right now have a major impact on the forecast models. This is unprecedented in modern times, we cannot expect any model to be able to get a firm grip yet.

We need to wait at least another couple of days to let the upper warming actually commence and for it to be in the input data. Only then will we, potentially only start to see, how this will start to pan out. 

To say this is a highly dynamic situation does not due it justice.

Great post and completely agree. The above is exactly why the models are basically all over the place, expect more wild swings in the coming days. Try not to get too emotional with each and every days runs until we get some consistent clarity. Don't forget snow in the forecast for some today, tomorrow, Tuesday and who knows after that.

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, shotski said:

Maybe things will take a little more time to affect the output. 

A reason to stay positive this morning. Thanks for posting that. The question is, why were so many of the experts so confident of a qtr? The ecm is really gunning for a lagged response now to around 2 weeks from now. Let's just hope that doesn't keep getting put back and back until it is too late. 

[Chevron12345]

43 minutes ago, Raythan said:

From days 6 into 7 the ECM is barely part of its own ensemble 

Indeed, but the rest of the ensemble spread is not that exciting at all. I mentioned the mean the other day, and still nothing notable has changed.

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Great post and completely agree. The above is exactly why the models are basically all over the place, expect more wild swings in the coming days. Try not to get too emotional with each and every days runs until we get some consistent clarity. Don't forget snow in the forecast for some today, tomorrow, Tuesday and who knows after that.

I wouldn't say the models are all over the place. The models are all over the place when they flip wildly from run to run. This isn't happening. The ecm has been consistently poor run to run for the last couple of days whilst the gfs has been consistently much more promising. Anyway, it's snowing outside as I type

Edited February 11, 2018 by blizzard81

[Summer Sun]

3rd run in a row from ECM backing away from any deep cold around the time the impacts of the SSW are likely to be coming into play

UKMO at t168 looks settled for the majority as high pressure builds up from the south

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

3rd run in a row from ECM backing away from any deep cold around the time the impacts of the SSW are likely to be coming into play

UKMO at t168 looks settled for the majority as high pressure builds up from the south

 

Bartlett alert on that ukmo 168 chart. You got to laugh or you'll go mad lol ? 

[snowblind]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A reason to stay positive this morning. Thanks for posting that. The question is, why were so many of the experts so confident of a qtr? The ecm is really gunning for a lagged response now to around 2 weeks from now. Let's just hope that doesn't keep getting put back and back until it is too late. 

Hopefully there still will be a QTR. Once the SSW happens tomorrow hopefully we will see some dramatic changes in the models for the better, in terms of cold that is.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Glad to see more milder air appearing again on the ECM this morning for next week as this frequent cold & wet weather is playing havoc with my asthma.  

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, snowblind said:

Hopefully there still will be a QTR. Once the SSW happens tomorrow hopefully we will see some dramatic changes in the models for the better, in terms of cold that is.

I know the ecm isn't quite what it used to be but surely it cannot be so wrong with the ssw response at such short notice. 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I know the ecm isn't quite what it used to be but surely it cannot be so wrong with the ssw response at such short notice. 

The response is 7-8 days away, it's not really short notice.

[Day 10]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I wouldn't say the models are all over the place. The models are all over the place when they flip wildly from run to run. This isn't happening. The ecm has been consistently poor run to run for the last couple of days whilst the gfs has been consistently much more promising. 

I do agree with you to a certain extent, maybe my choice of wording there wasn't quite correct. I have only seen what's been posted on my phone this morning so should of held off till seeing all models really to make a better judgement.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Jemma Croton said:

We have. I’ve sat through it all painfully year after year but this situation is markedly different. We know that this SSW is happening and, not only that, it’s set to last 10 bloody days. This is phenomenal stuff and there’s no reason right now to throw in the towel. Come on... cheer up Charlie etc xx

I do admire your optimism but we all know how often we have got burnt lol. I think we have to be realistic and treat ecm with respect as even the 00z gfs run has been watered down slightly in the 7 to 8 day range compared to yesterday's runs. 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The response is 7-8 days away, it's not really short notice.

Fair point. Let's see what the rest of today's runs bring. One thing for sure, this hobby certainly isn't boring lol. Frustrating? Most certainly!

[Singularity]

People seem to have forgotten that last nights ECM was very close to the GFS route.

 

Regardless - there does appear to now be a rather muted or even somehow absent quick tropospheric response to the first SSW phase and with ECM giving the Canadian vortex much more of a say than the anticyclone across Asia while also taking out the MJO forcing that GFS has helping us out.

I get the sense that the MJO is the more influential on the current model output in the 3-10 day range, be that rightly or wrongly so.

 

However I am considering an alternative and this is one for the stratosphere experts now - could the record strength reversal in some way spin up the displaced Canadian daughter vortex more than would usually be seen following a split SSW? TIA

 

Edited February 11, 2018 by Singularity

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

People seem to have forgotten that last nights ECM was very close to the GFS route.

 

Regardless - there does appear to now be a rather muted or even somehow absent quick tropospheric response to the first SSW phase and with ECM giving the Canadian vortex much more of a say than the anticyclone across Asia while also taking out the MJO forcing that GFS has helping us out.

I get the sense that the MJO is the more influential on the current model output in the 3-10 day range, be that rightly or wrongly so.

 

One for the stratosphere experts now - could the record strength reversal in some way spin up the displaced Canadian daughter vortex more than would usually be seen following a split SSW? TIA

 

Your last paragraph - don't know the answer but grrrrrghhh, wouldn't that just be typical. 

[bluearmy]

Btw, the neg AO has pretty well gone AwOl on the latest eps. Even if we wouldn’t necessarily get lucky, how often does the AO fail to drop to neg post SSW with a qtr?  I suspect never ? 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Btw, the neg AO has pretty well gone AwOl on the latest eps. Even if we wouldn’t necessarily get lucky, how often does the AO fail to drop to neg post SSW with a qtr?  I suspect never ? 

Very strange goings on with the ecm by the sounds of it. The trouble is we cannot discard it. 

[blizzard81]

I have often found the weekend runs to suddenly go out of kilter, especially with regards to cold spells which look more than likely. However, by the time we get to the Monday 12z runs, they flip back to cold or what they were originally showing on the previous Friday. Is there less data available to the models over the weekends? 

[Tracy Flick]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I have often found the weekend runs to suddenly go out of kilter, especially with regards to cold spells which look more than likely. However, by the time we get to the Monday 12z runs, they flip back to cold or what they were originally showing on the previous Friday. Is there less data available to the models over the weekends? 

Is there a site that lists missing data points etc and definitively resolves this 'urban legend'?  I'd imagine some buoys etc are quite critical and forecasters would want to know if there are malfunctions.