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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We haven't had a proper Euro High all Winter yet the strongest SSW in many a year appears to want to deliver one.

ECM op has to be wrong, doesn't it?

Maybe SSW really stands for Strong South Westerlies?!  :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We haven't had a proper Euro High all Winter yet the strongest SSW in many a year appears to want to deliver one.

ECM op has to be wrong, doesn't it?

I asked the question sometime ago if that you are in a cold weather pattern already, would you want a SSW to pop up which could knock you out of it? 

Tuesday's frontal system is looking interesting, could be back end snow to this.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Just now, Weather-history said:

I asked the question sometime ago if that you are in a cold weather pattern already, would you want a SSW to pop up which could knock you out of it? 

Tuesday's frontal system is looking interesting, could be back end snow to this.

There is little doubt that an SSW could well have a detrimental effect on an already established cold pattern, which is what we currently have. The only thing I would say, that would probably apply moreso if it was more of a displacement type to a split type. So by hook or by crook, with a split, the cold should find us. Eventually. Probably.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Why don’t we just enjoy this potentially wintery week coming up rather than obsessing about this ssw when the models haven’t got a clue about how that will play out. I can almost guarantee the dates will be put back for the effects of that as I said a few days ago. It’s always the same on here to much looking at stuff 8 days plus away

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

The current unparalleled events regarding the polar vortex are a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that they will almost certainly lead to cold/snowy conditions coming to the uk via Hlb.

The curse is two fold firstly we have known about it well in advance so we hang on every chart out put willing it to appear which it has done in the gfs but not so much in the ecm.

Also the nwp in general is having to deal with unprecedented zonal wind reversal and I doubt that the algorithims used no matter how good they are will be programmed to deal with this particularly well.

FWIW I wouldn,t expect the nwp to get a decent handle on this until midweek at the eariest.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

morning  all i think the main problem is  the models cant get their heads arouned the  cold block  with the  ssw coming with all the bands coming off the alantic will turn to snow as the bbc weather for the week said last night.even he said the uk can expect a lot of snow ex monday  night tuesday and , and things to get very cold by friday their so many great charts  in fantasy world all i say  enjoy !!:cold::yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 hours ago, Kentish Snowman said:

It's actually only 2/1 if there is a three way split!  Not bad!

I was  weighing the non cold solutions!

anyway, the differences between ecm and gfs are clear all the way up to 10hpa. I guess it depends which model has a better handle on what the strat response is re the warming and how the dominant Canadian segment interacts with the blocking. the sensible money up there would be on ecm, especially in a short timeframe. 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
2 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

Guys. Come on. The models are topsy turvy and swinging one way to the other but don’t get disheartened yet. The SSW isn’t underway yet and until it is I don’t think any models will have a proper handle on how things might progress. Ride it out and wait for the runs tomorrow onwards xx

Yes but we have been here before ecm now UKmo Gfs backing away not a good trend! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

I’ve lurked on these forums for about 15 years and have seen these SSWs on several occasions and more appear to miss than hit in terms of the U.K. 

I recall high levels of SSW ramping in Feb 09 after the cold spell in week 1, but it all came to nothing with a mild rest of winter.

All that said I do find it a bit odd that something that is supposed to enhance northern blocking, seems to enhance southern blocking on the ECM. Think it’s worth retaining a high level of scepticism for the next few days while we see how things unfold.

But in terms of the ability for an SSW to deliver a cold spell for the U.K., it’s far from a guarantee of anything cold, let alone epic 1947 style blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Always Snow.
  • Location: Swindon
4 minutes ago, snowice said:

Yes but we have been here before ecm now UKmo Gfs backing away not a good trend! 

We have. I’ve sat through it all painfully year after year but this situation is markedly different. We know that this SSW is happening and, not only that, it’s set to last 10 bloody days. This is phenomenal stuff and there’s no reason right now to throw in the towel. Come on... cheer up Charlie etc xx

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Hmm, I wonder what has caused the ECM to go from a firm yes to an emphatic no.

Is it seeing something different in its modelling of the SSW or teleconnections (after all a few days ago we were highlighting how it should it model the effects of the SSW more accurately due to better resolution/layers etc).
Or, does it suggest that upstream differences such as how a low behaves can actually play the winning card.
(Edit, Bluearmy gives a clue, differences in the strat right up to 10hpa.)

ECM vs GFS at T+192

ECMOPEU00_192_1.pngGFSOPEU00_192_1.png

Maybe we'd just be taking the longer route, but I don't like doing that. The sun is strengthening, and it gives us more time to get lost and run out of petrol.
Something that seems to happen quite a lot for us.

So in these circumstances I can't get excited. There would be a time that I can, e.g. when all models agree on a cold snowy easterly within T+120 :good:

Time to enjoy today's unusually chilly westerly with a risk of snow showers even here in the SW.

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

None of our models go out as far the projected effect of a SSW. The time lag is to great so really no point looking at these models until the event has taken place. Yes there has been talk of a 7day delay etc but its really going to be closer to 14days delay. 

 

Alot of pessimism exsists on this thread with no good reason. Patience. MJO and trends in he AO lead the way. Forget the run by run approach. Your just torturing yourselves needlessly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

It could just be that the SSW isn't going to have a positive affect on us as far as cold is concerned. Not everywhere in the Northern hemisphere will see bitter cold conditions from it. Somewhere is going to miss out, and if your a betting man you would favour our locale  over places like USA or Eastern Europe etc etc.

 

Edited by SteveB
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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
19 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Why don’t we just enjoy this potentially wintery week coming up rather than obsessing about this ssw when the models haven’t got a clue about how that will play out. I can almost guarantee the dates will be put back for the effects of that as I said a few days ago. It’s always the same on here to much looking at stuff 8 days plus away

The much touted ssw does this every year almost, when there's any kind of warming imminent but the last 5 years any kind of midwinter warming has failed to downwell, I recognise this year is very different with the strength of it a lot stronger along with all the other drivers in our favour but it guarantees nothing.

 

However in my experience even with the built in stratospheric resolution within the models, I can't remember a year when the models worked out the trop response before the warming actually happened, the bench Mark was always 21 days or so for a trop response after the warming unless of course we had a quick trop response within 5 days or so but even then models would suddenly flip after the warming, and I'm expecting the same this year, we can all try and work out where the blocking will take hold but it very very rarely plays out as one would hope to the book.

But I'm more confident of seeing lots of northern blocking prevalent in the northern hemisphere in the coming weeks, whether it correlates to deep cold and easterly winds is another thing but we live in hope!

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I think the ECM has this correct, big shift in the ensembles overnight towards the ECM like solution... 

From days 6 into 7 the ECM is barely part of its own ensemble 

355BCC66-FA47-4595-87FB-DA1B903C3976.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

The much touted ssw does this every year almost, when there's any kind of warming imminent but the last 5 years any kind of midwinter warming has failed to downwell, I recognise this year is very different with the strength of it a lot stronger along with all the other drivers in our favour but it guarantees nothing.

 

However in my experience even with the built in stratospheric resolution within the models, I can't remember a year when the models worked out the trop response before the warming actually happened, the bench Mark was always 21 days or so for a trop response after the warming unless of course we had a quick trop response within 5 days or so but even then models would suddenly flip after the warming, and I'm expecting the same this year, we can all try and work out where the blocking will take hold but it very very rarely plays out as one would hope to the book.

But I'm more confident of seeing lots of northern blocking prevalent in the northern hemisphere in the coming weeks, whether it correlates to deep cold and easterly winds is another thing but we live in hope!

As far as I'm aware the last SSW was January 2013? 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

If it snows Monday week....and I think there will be some significant falls, it will not be the first time this winter I've seen the models more accurate from 250-360 hours away than from 150 to 240 hours away

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

The much touted ssw does this every year almost, when there's any kind of warming imminent but the last 5 years any kind of midwinter warming has failed to downwell, I recognise this year is very different with the strength of it a lot stronger along with all the other drivers in our favour but it guarantees nothing.

 

However in my experience even with the built in stratospheric resolution within the models, I can't remember a year when the models worked out the trop response before the warming actually happened, the bench Mark was always 21 days or so for a trop response after the warming unless of course we had a quick trop response within 5 days or so but even then models would suddenly flip after the warming, and I'm expecting the same this year, we can all try and work out where the blocking will take hold but it very very rarely plays out as one would hope to the book.

But I'm more confident of seeing lots of northern blocking prevalent in the northern hemisphere in the coming weeks, whether it correlates to deep cold and easterly winds is another thing but we live in hope!

Yes but it’s all too let’s look at stuff a week away which is mad when we have a wintery week right before our eyes, many winters gone by without such a week. Let’s enjoy this week and remember ITS THE WEATHER! Many more important things going on in our lives I’m sure

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
30 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

The current unparalleled events regarding the polar vortex are a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that they will almost certainly lead to cold/snowy conditions coming to the uk via Hlb.

The curse is two fold firstly we have known about it well in advance so we hang on every chart out put willing it to appear which it has done in the gfs but not so much in the ecm.

Also the nwp in general is having to deal with unprecedented zonal wind reversal and I doubt that the algorithims used no matter how good they are will be programmed to deal with this particularly well.

FWIW I wouldn,t expect the nwp to get a decent handle on this until midweek at the eariest.

Hang on a minute B.B. ...................

I could almost go with the cold but the snowy is a big leap of faith.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

As far as I'm aware the last SSW was January 2013? 

Maybe official but even last year we had major warming, just not official because we didn't quite get a reversal of winds.

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