Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Snowjokes92 said:

I dont know why when the models are all over the place for the coming week, nevermind a 384 chart. Also to add to that, the models will make wild swings like the 18z at the end anyway. Especially when the models are struggling to pin point where the northern blocking will take hold this week. The 18z also gets in another scandi high at the end but starts to collapse. Again the models are still struggling with heights building in the shorter term, never mind towards end of the month

I agree however just think it was worthy of comment. 

[Bazray]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nope - not quite. We have to get through this first

followed by a bit of this (though uppers will be good for high ground snow)

before suddenly at the weekend we get the anticipated, and very sudden, trop response to the split and warming

- so my fingers have a fair bit of drumming to do yet. I wonder if there is a change this weekend starting "gun" may be brought forward? No prediction there - just musing. It is possible.

Well its great to be sat at the table with a good hand, like having an open ended flush, odds are good, just need the cards to fall for us - if not, at least we have the consolation of spring / summer just around the corner. Happy days. 

[Mucka]

GFS control on board but probably less than 50% of ensemble members go with a such a strong Atlantic ridge initially.

[Man With Beard]

27 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM clusters aren't too bad - They show support for extensive Northern Blcoking but there is a cluster for a trough to our West, similar to the ECM op run

This is actually a step towards a northern blocking / Atlantic going under scenario from the ECM. Even the most pessimistic cluster looks as if it would go that way eventually. 

Even despite the westerly looking ECM mean for D10, by D12 the Scandi High goes up.

[jam]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Hard to say for certain where UKMO extended would go from here with a restricted view

Without being ungrateful ... these Atlantic snapshots have helped me in discovering what's happening  weather wise   in Kansas... 

Edited February 10, 2018 by jam

[karlos1983]

ECM ens 

not making model watching life easy for us lot 

just to annoy Pete, because his team has rather annoyed me today..... more runs needed 

Edited February 10, 2018 by karlos1983

[ANYWEATHER]

Staying cold folks but models toying with a deep cold in the next ten days Watch Pigs fly

[johnholmes]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Staying cold folks but models toying with a deep cold in the next ten days Watch Pigs fly

very scientific, your posts are sometimes just a touch off the mark, cheers!

[nick sussex]

It’s best to remember that Chinese proverb!

A bad chef can make a rubbish dinner with 5 star ingredients !

Regardless of how good the strat reversal is what counts for coldies in here is the weather on the ground .

The SSW does increase chances but we still need some luck with where any blocking sets up and also where any Euro low heights are located.

Edited February 10, 2018 by nick sussex

[Mucka]

Oh dear, UKMO going with ECM this morning.

GEM also flatter.

GFS flatter than recent runs but the best of the three.

If we don't get the ridge it looks like we will be playing a longer game for blocking and cold with a high building into Scandi (maybe)

Edited February 11, 2018 by Mucka

[Mucka]

GFS comes out nice with good vertical ridge into the Arctic, let's hope ECM comes back on board.

[Ali1977]

A great GFS run, things are gathering pace and I just hope the ECM climbs on board in its next run.

[Mucka]

I would say there are a lot of changes still to come looking at the output overall.

Only a couple of GFS ensembles go for a decent Atlantic ridge along with the control run. In fact only one member has HLB by day 10, a decent smattering of MLB and ridges and the rest Westerly dominated.

I wouldn't rule it out but I will be surprised if ECM gets back on board with the early Atlantic ridge after dropping it and now UKMO and GFS ensembles backing it - just a bit odd GFS Op and control are still going with it but the 06z may drop it.

Looking at GFS ensembles anything is possible frankly and I really don't think the models have got a handle on this yet. 

At least increased blocking looks likely, it just may not be as quick or as clean as we would like.

Edited February 11, 2018 by Mucka

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles hardly inspiring confidence a cold spell is imminent.

On the other hand still some cold runs in there.

Edited February 11, 2018 by Mucka

[SLEETY]

It’s still too far away for the models to work out exactly how it’s going to play out yet

the met are not going to know either the end result ,have to wait a while yet

[EML Network]

Pendulum is swinging in favour of the ECM this morning it would seem.

Both the GFS ensembles, UKMO are both in broad agreement.

If were going to get a decent cold spell IMO its not going to happen within the next 7 days.

[That ECM]

As we were then, nothing's  changed. Still clue less what time does the ukmo t168 update please? Save me visiting the site every 5 minutes what I would say is this t192 ecm output does not correlate with the met suggested weather for next weekend. It's as far from cooler with winter showers in the north and milder and wet in the south as you could get.

Edited February 11, 2018 by That ECM

[Tom Quintavalle]

Yes Sleety, agree with you, I think any synoptic pattern change, due to an SSW, is still a little out of range  of most models and any resultant HLB and possible easterly flow, is a little way off yet. Still liking the trends though and noted that some models suggesting the appearance, of an Arctic High, poking its nose, into the top of the charts. Could be the cavalry, in terms of keeping that stubborn lobe of PV, held west of Greenland and aiding any northern blocking

A little earlier, I posted a couple of charts from Feb 2005, on the SE regional thread. The possible evolving pattern change, reminds me of that, incredible spell of synoptic, eye candy.

Now, I'm not saying we are going to develop exactly the same kind of pattern. As always, we still need the cards, to fall kindly, for us but the similarities, are there.

Regards,

Tom,

[SLEETY]

Never was going to be in the next 7 days this Easterly, it’s towards end of the month,way too far out for the models to make any sense of it,or if it’s even in their time frame yet?

 

its only the long range met office models that have picked up the signal for the SSW and possible Siberian outbreak

[KTtom]

You have to have a wry smile...over a week after ssw and ecm gives us......the mildest chart of the winter! 

IF this does turn out to be correct it could finally end the teleconnections debate for good!

[SLEETY]

Effects of SSW aren’t expected till the last week of February,as written on the met office long range update

need to wait several more days for it to effect the models output I think.

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, KTtom said:

You have to have a wry smile...over a week after ssw and ecm gives us......the mildest chart of the winter! 

IF this does turn out to be correct it could finally end the teleconnections debate for good!

We haven't had a proper Euro High all Winter yet the strongest SSW in many a year appears to want to deliver one.

ECM op has to be wrong, doesn't it?

[Frosty.]

I've been guilty of posting  lots of charts in the T+300 plus range recently and looking for how the SSW impacts on the models but really the week ahead looks very interesting too with rather cold changeable / unsettled conditions with rain, sleet and snow at times, even some disruptive snow in places and some frosty / icy nights!

Edited February 11, 2018 by Frosty.

[EML Network]

15 minutes ago, KTtom said:

You have to have a wry smile...over a week after ssw and ecm gives us......the mildest chart of the winter! 

IF this does turn out to be correct it could finally end the teleconnections debate for good!

If that verifys I think we all might as well pack up and go home.

 

[john mac]

17 minutes ago, EML Network said:

If that verifys I think we all might as well pack up and go home.

 

I didn’t realise that an saw stood for the uk being 20c ?