Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Roadrunner]

Would be interested to see if NOAA bin the ECM. I'd have a look myself but actually have no idea what they are talking about half the time. It's like a different language! 

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Would be interested to see if NOAA bin the ECM. I'd have a look myself but actually have no idea what they are talking about half the time. It's like a different language! 

Don’t fret, we can get @nick sussex on the case 

However I highly doubt they will back the ecm route. 

The differences from its 00z output is pretty big. Look to the n Pacific / Alaska

I’m not buying it

Edited February 10, 2018 by karlos1983

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I thought the GFS OP was incredible....but the Control is INSANE!  Bloooming, blinking, ruddy Nora 

 

BFTP

[karlos1983]

ECM mean is starting to give me the hump! How can two models be so far apart 

[Cloud 10]

Subtle differences between GFS and ECM at day 10...

 

GFS....ECM

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

all i  say  the ssw could start  after  about  120  hr  deep  into fantasy world is a coldies  dream ,  all eyes  on the pub run later!!

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Subtle differences between GFS and ECM at day 10...

 

GFS....ECM

Probably better comparing it mean to mean

they couldn’t be further apart! 

The ECM is dealing with the N Pacific and N Atlantic very differently to the GFS. Shame we can’t see UKMO at the same timeframe.

atleast the ECM op looks to be an outlier at the end and crucially at the D4/5 timeframe.

Edited February 10, 2018 by karlos1983

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

35 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Ecm was first model to show Easterly then gfs picks it up and ecm drops the idea.Utterly clueless all the models after 5 days,pointless them going past that time frame.

Not pointless just GFS and ECM base their outputs on totally different variables

[Ice Man 85]

5 minutes ago, - 40*C said:

Not pointless just GFS and ECM base their outputs on totally different variables

True, but the GFS has had HUGE ensemble scatter over its last few runs. yesterday only had 1 "good" run; the 0, 6 and 18z were not favourable at all overall. Today has been the same, though the 12z suite does favour cold over mild. The ECM has been consistent and is now consistently saying no. Doesn't bode well in my opinion.

Edited February 10, 2018 by Ice Man 85
typo

[Stuie]

Well the question has to be asked, what has made the ECM go from this yesterday:

To this today:

It is almost as if after a few days it is a random number generator or in this case, chart generator. Same can be said for the other models but nothing has been as stark as this. Maybe the ECM is the 1st model to feel the effects of the SSW (chaotic/random output) or maybe it is the 1st model to be RIGHT. Scary thought.

[Ice Man 85]

3 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Well the question has to be asked, what has made the ECM go from this yesterday:

To this today:

It is almost as if after a few days it is a random number generator or in this case, chart generator. Same can be said for the other models but nothing has been as stark as this. Maybe the ECM is the 1st model to feel the effects of the SSW (chaotic/random output) or maybe it is the 1st model to be RIGHT. Scary thought.

Well the 12z run ends on a doozy; double digit temps lol. You'd expect the opposite considering what is favoured to happen. Still, I have yet to see overwhelming support from any source.

[Bazray]

Quite often the models will chop and change when a large atmospheric driver flips and causes a pattern change in the lower atmosphere and this has been the case over the last few days. But as the SSW impacts start to come in the high resolution part of the models, i.e. out to 10 days with most models, then we may start to firm up on what lies in store and whether indeed we will see high latitude blocking manifest to our north and northeast to bring a cold end to the month. But there is no guarantees of such a pattern transpiring, given what I’ve already described about not all SSW events leading to colder and snowy weather.

 

wise words from earlier netweather article relating to the SSW. MODELS WILL CHOP AND CHANGE!

[Bazray]

Someone posted earlier he was speaking to someone at the met office and he believed a 70% chance for the cold spell towards the end of the month to occur, we have a good chance, hopefully once the SSW kicks in it all starts to firm up and become a bit clearer.

Edited February 10, 2018 by Bazray

[Ice Man 85]

6 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Quite often the models will chop and change when a large atmospheric driver flips and causes a pattern change in the lower atmosphere and this has been the case over the last few days. But as the SSW impacts start to come in the high resolution part of the models, i.e. out to 10 days with most models, then we may start to firm up on what lies in store and whether indeed we will see high latitude blocking manifest to our north and northeast to bring a cold end to the month. But there is no guarantees of such a pattern transpiring, given what I’ve already described about not all SSW events leading to colder and snowy weather.

 

wise words from earlier netweather article relating to the SSW. MODELS WILL CHOP AND CHANGE!

Less than half from what I've read. Not great statistics is it?

[Bazray]

1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Less than half from what I've read. Not great statistics is it?

Ill take a 70% chance all day long. This SSW looks to be a good one.

Edited February 10, 2018 by Bazray

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Less than half from what I've read. Not great statistics is it?

Wrong! 2/3. Snowy who knows, impossible. But cold, statistics say 66.666%. But if anyone can find the 33.34% we can 

Edited February 10, 2018 by karlos1983

[SMU]

UKMO supporting GFS- nice angle of attack!

 

 

[ICE COLD]

@bluearmy or anyone else ?. Do you still think we will have a better idea by the 12z runs tomorrow of we can exspect for the end off the week . I remember you saying a few pages back that we should have a good idea by Sunday 12z runs ? Or are we gonna be in and out of mood swings for at least a few more days ? ? 

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

@bluearmy or anyone else ?. Do you still think we will have a better idea by the 12z runs tomorrow of we can exspect for the end off the week . I remember you saying a few pages back that we should have a good idea by Sunday 12z runs ? Or are we gonna be in and out of mood swings for at least a few more days ? ? 

Depends. If it's about cold? 48 hours but if that's coming then everyone will start worrying about snow and then if we get that we can start worrying about the break down

Edited February 10, 2018 by That ECM

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

I have yet to see overwhelming support from any source.

You're absolutely right, there isn't overwhelming support as is clearly seen from the Ecm output today..but, there are still encouraging signs from the Gfs / Gefs..Exeter..and who knows what tomorrow will bring?.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

@bluearmy or anyone else ?. Do you still think we will have a better idea by the 12z runs tomorrow of we can exspect for the end off the week . I remember you saying a few pages back that we should have a good idea by Sunday 12z runs ? Or are we gonna be in and out of mood swings for at least a few more days ? ? 

Yes.... they are absolutely ‘crucial’

 

I think the ECM will gradually change, I think the GFS Op and Control show perfection.....lower sights and work up imo

 

BFTP

Edited February 10, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

This time yesterday, more runs were needed...This time today, more runs are needed...This time tomorrow?

[Stuie]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO supporting GFS- nice angle of attack!

 

 

Please elaborate Steve for new people (AND ME). Fronts pushing in against cold air in situ?

[Singularity]

The UKMO 168 can be made more use of if GFS and ECM are posted from the same perspective here is  GFS-UKMO-ECM;

  

UKMO sitting very much in the middle of the pack with the angle of the flow but the southern extent of the frontal system is much more akin to GFS than ECM so I would say that overall, it's about 75% toward  GFS over ECM.

 

As for what the heck ECM is up to, well how about we look at the MJO projection v. that of GFS:

 

Bizarrely, the observed MJO for 9th Feb doesn't quite match up between the two - I've never seen that before - and things only get weirder when you look at the model projections, with both models showing some retrograde motion and a little kick back up but with ECM decaying the signal a lot more before that kick.

As the zonal winds decelerate, it's not out of the question to just see a gradually relaxing westerly flow down at the surface, should there be a lack of amplification signal for the Atlantic sector. In that scenario, due to the initial split acting more like a displacement away from Eurasia, the best we can do ahead of the second phase SSW kicking in is a broad ridge building gradually north with dry and increasingly cold weather at the surface. Then as the second phase kicks in (lucky we have that eh?) and the Canadian vortex weakens/falls apart, blocking migrates further N and later W.

In the case of GFS, extra amplification from the MJO drives a trough into Europe and puts the warm air advection out west on a more northerly track, both of which give us a shortcut to the 'blocking migrates further N and later W' stage of the above. The SSW impacts to our E and NE, particularly the displacement of a weak vortex lobe that then moves west from Asia to Scandinavia, have been messing with the evolution at times but the general tendency has been persistent with this model today. 

 

So that's my take on the why behind the model runs of the past 24 hours. As for which is more likely to be correct, all I will say at this time is that the position of UKMO seems encouraging if you'd prefer the faster outcome.

[ghoneym]

Could this be the start of the ECM / GFS battle between backround signals starting to show? GFS keeping the MJO in phase 7 for some time, La nina forcing showing its hand

 GFS    vs ECM   

 GFS       VS  ECM     

 

GFS essentially showing the MJO tropical convection unable to make its way into stage 8 as the La Nina signal is still in charge. This is good as it allows the NAO to head negative and lock in the colder air due to mass of energy heading into the polar flows and the AZ high NOT weakening but positioning itself correctly. 

ECM appears to be backing off the La Nina signal somewhat with most ensembles heading towards a more Neutral state. That allows the weakened MJO to progress towards 8 & 1 and unlitmately its death.

Of course the SSW modelling is a whole new ball game added into the mix and although we can see what the GFS is predicting in terms of this, no such access for the ECM variant (that I can find). What would be magic for the end of this winter would be for the MJO to follow the GFS path and then in time with the next uptick in GWO to further enhance the SSW trop response hopefully locking in pattern of cold. 

 GFS       ECM         +240