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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

I think the ECM evolution (high building from the Southwest with the undercut coming from the east instead of the west) is more likely. The warming is going to push the Greenland vortex lobe west into central canada over the coming week so I dont see any real pressure coming from the Atlantic. I think the GFS was toying with the Atlantic undercutting and now it is in a bit of a no mans land. Hopefully it gets on board with the ECM in the next few runs.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Just one more from me (this place is so damn addictive), I notice a slight oddity on the GEFS where there's less scatter on the 850's on days 7-8 that there is on days 5-6.  Just found that a bit unusual.

Diagramme GEFS

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Some posters yesterday suggesting even saying that posters were trying to second guess the outlook. Well no guessing here. Its going to get very cold and very wintry. If the Scandi high is the correct solution for initial trop response ( I think it may be slightly further west) then any regression will I would of thought help to bring colder uppers In quicker.

By Sunday there should be no more hiccups from the models with all (except UKMO of course because of its range ) showing some magical winter synoptics.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Just one more from me (this place is so damn addictive), I notice a slight oddity on the GEFS where there's less scatter on the 850's on days 7-8 that there is on days 5-6.  Just found that a bit unusual.

Diagramme GEFS

If the 18z latches on to one of those -6 850s at day 5 i think this place is gona go crazy as i think it will bring the cold in a lot earlier!!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Quite obvious the predicted change over time to an Easterly on the ECM when scrolled through. The 18th it is....

T168 Westerly flow

ECH0-168.GIF?09-0

T192 North to North East Flow

ECH0-192.GIF

T216 Easterly

ECH0-216.GIF

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

My goodness aren't things getting exciting:D A Ssw to look forward too and the ECM just beginning to really see the way to a proper cold spell. Day 9/10 look very close to what we might expect

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Could any signal override or mute an SSW zonal wind reversal one it's started ?......I'm thinking an SST Ocean signal like a tripole, Positive NAO etc...Or are these just parts of the jigsaw....I saw someone saying a North Atlantic tripole SST ocean effect, could effect the reverse zonal winds, muting the SSW?

The way things are with our climate today, most probably yes!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Stunning Ecm 12z op this evening, even better than the 00z..coldies cups could runneth over again and again as we see charts similar to these repeated and yes, even improved upon!!..:cold-emoji::D..I love the Ecm..great model ???????????

48_thickuk.png

72_thickuk.png

96_thickuk.png

168_thickuk.png

192_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

240_mslp850.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

0515-610x340.jpg

825.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO at t168 pretty much following GFS with high pressure edging up from the south and lower pressure to the north

ukm2.2018021612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.29edbc1c663572604a0efcd5b9405827.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Day 10 ECM

If you don't like cold conditions then I'd nestle down till April from this point onwards ;)

IMG_3304.thumb.PNG.108f14ffa8882b92fdc410f41fb8e6e5.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
37 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS is a nerve shredder and the UKMO doesn't look as good as the ECM at T144hrs so we need a few more runs.

The ECM does though have a better grip on any strat influence so for the timebeing and given the SSW  perhaps we should give it the benefit of the doubt.

If you get to T168hrs with the clearance between UK low and upstream trough with the ridge in between then its game on.

Admit it Nick, don't you just luurrvvv the drama ? :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, ptow said:

Ha ha. I have been watching since 1998. Trust me it’s always 10 days away 

I will have you know, after tonight`s output, it is 9 days away just to buck the trend...

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Comforting to see some semblance of agreement on the models at last after a disappointing few runs from the GFS. Has the coffee truly been sniffed? Only time will tell. Still from tonight's output at least, prepare for a bitter harvest...

jAof9gL.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
Just now, timboy666 said:

what is a ssw?

Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I won't pretend to know what that is though

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ECM mean is a little surprising actually

66C4C028-7DE9-4859-9E5E-6952E236EC5E.thumb.png.1238c6bc139acdf2e66fb3bbeb9797a2.png01D4842B-7DBF-4041-BE96-E0F8ED09E788.thumb.png.14a4bbce1147bccb6ff660cfc53f9afe.png

Thought it would be colder at 240 and more amplified in the Atlantic or the NE

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168 pretty much following GFS with high pressure edging up from the south and lower pressure to the north

ukm2.2018021612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.29edbc1c663572604a0efcd5b9405827.png

 

It's a lot better than GFS and closer to ECM IMO with the ridge on its way and troughs separated either side like ECM while GFS has an elongated trough for the same time. 

gfs-0-168.pngECM1-168.GIF?09-0

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM mean is a little surprising actually

66C4C028-7DE9-4859-9E5E-6952E236EC5E.thumb.png.1238c6bc139acdf2e66fb3bbeb9797a2.png01D4842B-7DBF-4041-BE96-E0F8ED09E788.thumb.png.14a4bbce1147bccb6ff660cfc53f9afe.png

Thought it would be colder at 240 and more amplified in the Atlantic  

Karlos, that isn`t great but lets see from Monday onwards. It can`t unravel before it is raveled.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Karlos, that isn`t great but lets see from Monday onwards. It can`t unravel before it is raveled.

I’m not worried, I was just a bit taken back. It’s made more difficult by not seeing individual runs like we get to see in graph format for the GEFS. So I am at risk of contradicting what I said earlier about the mean if the graph has the same look about it as the GEFS did. I.e. couple of very warm runs skewed the mean. :)

As per below, they were well out of kilter with the majority

7780A9A0-0E99-441E-99A4-9A9175975549.thumb.jpeg.7b3504e2dcfe2afbb14e5db7fe98ed0a.jpeg

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Extended eps stays on track; higher than normal heights to the north, lower than normal heights to the south.  Slight change of emphasis in that towards the later end (days 14-15), the focus of the higher heights is moving west towards eastern Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m not worried, I was just a bit taken back. It’s made more difficult by not seeing individual runs like we get to see in graph format for the GEFS. So I am at risk of contradicting what I said earlier about the mean if the graph has the same look about it as the GEFS did. I.e. couple of very warm runs skewed the mean. :)

An output is an output. For all the great charts, when you drop in a mean chart, you can`t dismiss it just because it isn`t what you hoped for. Going to be nervy viewing.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
14 minutes ago, timboy666 said:

what is a ssw?

It's when the weather gods grab the stratosphere in the middle, give it a damn good squeeze until it pops and sends bits of the troposphere all over the place. With luck on our side one of those bits will be super cold and land on our doorstep. At least that's the closest I get to understanding the process, for a grown up explanation see the stratosphere thread.

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