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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
22 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

P19 is the all day vodka suspect... more fun ahead a lot of those Perturbations do something different from the Op..

tempresult_szf8.thumb.gif.1f5a71fc8d639334e32ec5d6cd4b540c.gif

Its-actualy NOT..

With thr bunsen burn effect,  and trop-responses..its quite feasible.

Momentem guide and polar effect-both drag/and lag- like coat hangers on a thin wire with damp/heavy clothing!

Response-and strato- notions make operational outs...look like the drunken gate crasher that ruined the party..

Orbital-and mjo variation..side-by side with massive heat burn @trop-strat ..waves..

inclination  comes to mind..

and reverse is synoptic-on view.

helter skelter response and upper-variations are opposed to westerly response.

zonal reversal -slats-..

it sends on view- tricky decipher! But rings in the ears of most...

unless you need aiding.

 

i'll chuck some snap data in..soon...

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its-actualy NOT..

With thr bunsen burn effect,  and trop-responses..its quite feasible....

Where do people drink a lot of vodka :cold:

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
49 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Control run knows the score :)

Lets hope it controls the weather:D

Jokes aside,just read through the MOD thread for a good hour and half(bloody afters hey!) and there has been some good post in here,thanks:)

now what i have noticed between the ecm and gfs at 240 hrs is that the ecm has been modeling an atlantic HLB for the last few runs whereas the gfs as been modeling the HLB block to our NE/N,now that tells me we are going to see a HLB block to our NW/N or northeast so all is good,better than an MLB to our west or east or even over the uk

so which one will be right,the latest 8-14 day 500mb outlook from NOAA shows the block to our NE,i would much prefer this as there would be a lesser trend to a west based -NAO if i am right,the ecm has a narrow margine for error(not to say that the day ten is right) and could set up a west based -NAO

+ the 240 hr chart from ecm

814day.03.gifECH1-240.GIF?08-0

youv'e got to say that the ecm day ten chart looks good but is it right!

the NAO is forcast to stay possitive meaning that the PV segment over NE Canada will stay in situ spawning daughters/throughs of low pressures across the atlantic,now here is the fun bit,whilst we have this block to the NE then there is only one place for them to go and that is SE across the BI or under

nao.sprd2.gif

the AO is still on the neg side but has been forecasting this for some time,do i believe it!, with an SSW just around the corner,the reversal should tank that into well below neg territory.

ao.sprd2.gif

finally the De-built wind direction,now this was flatlining across the middle(westerlies)a few days ago towards the end,now look at it,whatch for the bottoming out through the coming days=>easterly.

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

oh! forgot to post this!

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Where do people drink a lot of vodka :cold:

The layers are on 'birthday' wishes..

+3 atmospheric...

Whos cutting the cake??

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

 

And Strat guru, Amy Butlers reply. Then our own Start Guru's reply incase folks haven't seen them.

5a7ce9bb0bf18_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_20_56.thumb.png.401fbdf0803390ec1cece4367ec0c10e.png      5a7cea40d4e33_ScreenShot2018-02-09at00_24_09.thumb.png.d2fd7a9867f1b41b1ed1a6cb500ea976.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Im currently having disscus; .@micheal ventrice..

Regards mesosphere..theres no evaluation! @trop@strat@warm..

Hes gone to breakfast!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

955mb low over Ireland. it's official, GFS has lost the plot.

gfsnh-0-138.png

UKMO also looking stormy but more believable.

UN144-21.GIF?09-05

Another noticeable difference is the very obvious ridge in the Atlantic sector on UKMO which GFS is once again oblivious to.

I am seriously inclined to ignore GFS output for now but the problem is nothing can be discounted.

Meanwhile the potential for heavy snow for some on the 13th is still there, very marginal and could be anything from a couple of inches to a washout.

iconeu_uk1-1-105-0.png?09-05

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
1 minute ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

00z ensembles

graphe_ens3_kle0.gif

Good morning. Is this looking good  or bad please for cold outlook? Sorry but I'm a novice lol.. Thanks ?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Good morning. Is this looking good  or bad please for cold outlook? Sorry but I'm a novice lol.. Thanks ?

At the moment it is case of one step forward, one step back. 

No clarity or consistency as yet.

A bit of everything in GFS ensembles - some great runs, some not so great.

gensnh-9-1-276.pnggensnh-6-1-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
15 minutes ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

Good morning. Is this looking good  or bad please for cold outlook? Sorry but I'm a novice lol.. Thanks ?

Cold but not showing deep cold. Having looked at the output from this morning and read comments from professionals it is very clear to me.

 

no one nor no model has a clue and it's a case of waiting until the ssw to see what effects it has and then we may get a handle on the way forward.  We know that blocking is more likely to occur but until we know where we don't know what effect it will have for us. We are seeing some erratic output at the moment hopefully this will be less so after the ssw.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
5 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lets hope it controls the weather:D

Jokes aside,just read through the MOD thread for a good hour and half(bloody afters hey!) and there has been some good post in here,thanks:)

now what i have noticed between the ecm and gfs at 240 hrs is that the ecm has been modeling an atlantic HLB for the last few runs whereas the gfs as been modeling the HLB block to our NE/N,now that tells me we are going to see a HLB block to our NW/N or northeast so all is good,better than an MLB to our west or east or even over the uk

so which one will be right,the latest 8-14 day 500mb outlook from NOAA shows the block to our NE,i would much prefer this as there would be a lesser trend to a west based -NAO if i am right,the ecm has a narrow margine for error(not to say that the day ten is right) and could set up a west based -NAO

+ the 240 hr chart from ecm

814day.03.gifECH1-240.GIF?08-0

youv'e got to say that the ecm day ten chart looks good but is it right!

the NAO is forcast to stay possitive meaning that the PV segment over NE Canada will stay in situ spawning daughters/throughs of low pressures across the atlantic,now here is the fun bit,whilst we have this block to the NE then there is only one place for them to go and that is SE across the BI or under

nao.sprd2.gif

the AO is still on the neg side but has been forecasting this for some time,do i believe it!, with an SSW just around the corner,the reversal should tank that into well below neg territory.

ao.sprd2.gif

finally the De-built wind direction,now this was flatlining across the middle(westerlies)a few days ago towards the end,now look at it,whatch for the bottoming out through the coming days=>easterly.

eps_pluim_dd_06260.png

oh! forgot to post this!

 

0/360 is north, 180 south, 270 west and 90 east, the plots for wind are better on the knmi site btw, the don't scatter but are plotted like an asymptot 

 

http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/weer-en-klimaatpluim

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM going with GFS and spitting a ball of vortex energy at us but very different upstream.

ECH1-144.GIF?09-12gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T144 all 3. Cold, windy, wintry(rain) depending on location etc. It's from here that the output becomes erratic. Will ecm follow last nights run? 

IMG_0504.PNG

IMG_0505.PNG

IMG_0506.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

One thing the models have started to agree on is to downgrade blocking to the East - looks like we may be relying on an Atlantic ridge to get things going but ECM wants to force that East this morning

ECH1-192.GIF?09-12

If it does then hopefully it will at least push into Scandinavia and give us an Easterly

Not really worth worrying about at this stage but the output could be better,

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Is it me or does the Atlantic seem to be going in to overdrive in this mornings runs?

Have we been led up the garden path again?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Ok not less likely it just looks quite messy not many with clean favourable blocking 

Ecm maybe about to disagree:D t192  charts below. T144 to t192 is not resolved.

IMG_0508.PNG

IMG_0510.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

More vertical than I expected so no worries from ECM.

Just need to get GFS on board.

ECH1-216.GIF?09-12 

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