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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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1 hour ago, lorenzo said:

Right Pub run - you are due us a been on the vodka since noon special  - if not tonight - Friday is fine to lead us into the weekend... 

One of the 'weather lore' bits of model watching was that a) the 18zGFS followed the ECM and, b) the pub run has the habit of sniffing out easterlies. Perfect time to test this vs, the #standard W>E bias...

gfsnh-4-72.thumb.png.836edafb8f377ce564e0592f168a72f8.png

What does that chart show? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s only great if it ends up delivering cold and snow otherwise there’s going my to be a lot of unhappy coldies in here.

The GFS is all over the place between runs and hit the buffers early here with the limpet UK low not detaching cleanly and phasing with the upstream trough.

 

 

I love cold and snow as much as anyone Nick, but there is also the side of watching an intriguing synoptic situation unfold.

If we don't get some deep cold over us at some time over the next month I would be very surprised but then again I wouldn't as well!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

We haven't had a split SSW where the dominant vortex is centred over NA so that is why. We have AAM battling SSW. The default pattern will always be driving the vortex west, whilst at the same time there is a lack of vorticity over Asia which would hold a block just to our east. So any block over Eurasia is diffuse which is probably why modelling keeps showing the vortex making inroads towards the east. And we are right in the mixing zone - as I said the other night, we may be held in no mans land for a while and that is what the models are showing.

The potential reward is great but will we receive it? If we knew the answer then we wouldn't be so addicted to every run!

That's very true chionomaniac . Really thought it would be a better run around day 10ish . But like a few have said the blocking is there it just needs to be in the right place ?. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I love cold and snow as much as anyone Nick, but there is also the side of watching an intriguing synoptic situation unfold.

If we don't get some deep cold over us at some time over the next month I would be very surprised but then again I wouldn't as well!

:D Don’t say that you’ll be causing a rush for the Prozac! 

Unfortunately we’ve all boarded the SSW sailing off to see the icebergs and snow and I think pandemonium will break out in here if we end up heading sw to the Azores!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

More caution thrown into some posts, must admit runs like the 18z do inject some lingering doubts....which still linger within me.  My worry is the trough around midmonth....where will it head....or not as the case may be.

let’s see where the 00z take us....and no they are not the ‘crucial’ runs.  We can save that for next week

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Don’t have time to go through them all, but heres P4, 5, 6,  8, 9, 11 for some examples (not got beyond there)...

A843594E-186B-4B77-A49C-A83EC02F1450.png

A86A0B64-E1F1-45C2-8B3E-C71634662333.png

F03E9011-AACF-4DFA-8B26-69CE026847D5.png

84BEBDE7-79D1-43C2-9EC4-1C8C49D1C18D.png

D95CF112-854A-4DBE-A4A9-216BD7CEA448.png

CEBDF21D-643F-4D46-A3AB-EC8E344EC122.png

Edit, 14, 15, 17

 

818D8CDB-25BC-40EE-B271-7FCAAAFC3D75.png

FA18098A-DAAE-426B-81BB-6BAAD51EEE10.png

 

8FD3697E-D8AF-46A0-8117-C31BD9E78568.png

Edit - 18, 19, 20

31D5F85E-91E7-406E-A56D-8BBD8415E64C.png

2F6C30FA-5C7D-4697-9666-9C6B3D511EFE.png

60BC41CF-63E6-4E2F-8437-7A581DB54D01.png

WOW. MADNESS. Best I’ve ever seen at that range? Quite possibly. 

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
20 minutes ago, meh said:

This is why I love the GFS.  If you superimpose 2 consecutive runs you get a Jackson Pollock.

at the end of most GFS runs you will often hear Pollocks mentioned....

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Catacol summed up my current thoughts perfectly in an earlier post, I’m too twiddling my fingers just wanting to get to next week. Only then will we hopefully see the initial direction we are likely to be heading. Where the HLB is most likely to be building. I still think Scandinavia will end up being it.

I know the Azores High /Greenland vortex setup is being feared by many as the great foe that will scupper the SSW effects. Nope, can’t see it, not this time. The forcings that will be applied are just going to be too great for them to stay in situ once the upper warming and the MJO take effect. They could indeed become our very best friends. The Azores High forced to strongly ridge polewards and the vortex break up providing runners in under the growing block.

The (second) worst case scenario, we have to wait a little longer than we would all like...

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

This from Ian tonight.

D9C58244-564F-45CD-BFD4-5F0D22BAC301.png

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

P19 is the all day vodka suspect... more fun ahead a lot of those Perturbations do something different from the Op..

tempresult_szf8.thumb.gif.1f5a71fc8d639334e32ec5d6cd4b540c.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

The ens are as good as the op was poor (relatively speaking).

Some absolute stunners in there.

And it’s great that, for once, it backed up by the background signals.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
9 minutes ago, john mac said:

This from Ian tonight.

D9C58244-564F-45CD-BFD4-5F0D22BAC301.png

That was from this morning mate . We have had tonight's ECM 12z run since and the ECM monthly which BA has said is looking cold ?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS ensembles much more predisposed to a strong Atlantic ridge.

Pretty safe to assume the Op was wrong

graphe3_1000_261_92___.gifgraphe6_1000_261_92___.gif

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Plenty of support for the ECM op tonight from the ECM ensembles

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018020812_240.

Dec 2009 springs to mind

Absolute peach. All have high latitude blocking with focal point extending Scandinavia into Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles much more predisposed to a strong Atlantic ridge.

Pretty safe to assume the Op was wrong

graphe3_1000_261_92___.gif

Yes and they look better than the 12z ?

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

Where is @tight isobar? I need a model output riddle to decipher before I head for the sack! :D Great model watching today, that GFS control pub run looks smashing! Just a thought before I head off, the GFS has the MJO stalling in phase 7 at decent amplitude, the ECM MJO see's a drop in to phase 8 and fading out fast. Do we want the GFS - MJO outcome or the ECM outcome, one gives more extra tropical forcing for HLB than the other for a longer term. Add the SSW effects to the mix and I know which one I prefer. 

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

SSW vs NWP - lol !

This just East of Iceland in the 'mind the gap' split zone... carnage.

graphe4_1000___-14.0625_64.125_.thumb.gif.150a0dde5fa4a0089492b9a226f2b841.gif

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