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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Yes ECM ends well whichever way it's presented

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NH view is a cracker

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:D

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
48 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

That ECM day 10 chart is for you . It looks just like a sausage ?

IMG_1315.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
10 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Looks like December.

Yeah 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

The thing is though, it gets there despite the precarious appearance because of the SSW impacts... so perhaps the model progression can’t be assessed in the same manner regarding what could go wrong.

As in, as long as there is an overall weakening vortex and building HLB trend, not too much reason to worry at this range.

Just my take on it though in a bid to ease a few nerves :)

Precarious appearances which suddenly clutch a victory from the jaws of defeat don't have a good track record so I'd like to see more separation between the limpet low and the upstream troughing.

The day 9 is saved because of amplification upstream over the Pacific which rides in just in time to help pull the PV back and allow heights to build over the Arctic. That shortwave running east attaches itself to the PV and the pivot action stops the impending tragedy!

I'm happy the ECM finally got there but less than enthused with its highwire act earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Are we still looking ahead to Day 10? By the time Day 10 gets to Day 0, it'll be High Summer, at this rate!:search:

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Have you got a reason for being here ? Check out day 10 ? Oh wait your come back with another stupid comment.?

Believe ten day and watch elephants fly:rofl:

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That ECM day 10 chart is for you . It looks just like a sausage ?

IMG_1315.PNG

I’ve eaten too many sausages in my time....

ECM and GFS seem to be singing from the same sheet BROADLY in that it will get colder from a vqtr thanks to the upcoming SSW. 

It remains to be seen the location of blocking and snow etc.

Watch this space I’d say 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we still looking ahead to Day 10? By the time Day 10 gets to Day 0, it'll be High Summer, at this rate!:search:

Never mind day 10 Ed..I would have loved to have seen day 11, 12 and 13!!:D:cold:

More great output today..something is afoot:D

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, Snowmadsam said:

I’ve eaten too many sausages in my time....

ECM and GFS seem to be singing from the same sheet BROADLY in that it will get colder from a vqtr thanks to the upcoming SSW. 

It remains to be seen the location of blocking and snow etc.

Watch this space I’d say 

Mmm what kind off sausage ?? Yep starting to build some momentum now some really good charts appearing ?. 

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
46 minutes ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

I would tend to agree with your statement.

From an atmospheric perspective this is undoubtably a perfect opportunity to witness and analyse the global effects of an SSW as it occurs. The scientific excitement here is perfectly understandable. 

 However at ground level ,today’s 12z GFS ensemble mean shows a slightly below average temperature profile for the next 16days, so currently very much standard fare for the UK and not a mini ice age as some other comments seem to indicate.

Back to the present,  the current zonal wind speed at 60n 10hpa is still showing a reasonably healthy 26 m/s. So if we are to see a reversal  ( currently scheduled for around midday on 10th Feb ) we should expect to see almost an emergency stop here tomorrow and maybe some improved model runs also.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford

i hardly know anything really, but my guess is that the cold situation is looking good, any snow though?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I think it's one of those things that's got toes on the end!:rofl:

Well I've got my fingers and toes crossed that the latest gfs / ecm  are giving us a glimpse of the BEST winter weather still to come..hopefully afoot of snow and more!:D:cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Are we still looking ahead to Day 10? By the time Day 10 gets to Day 0, it'll be High Summer, at this rate!:search:

This is a downwelling strat split. The vortex split is still 2 or 3 days away at 10mb. To get a signature like we are seeing in the trop at day 10 which is just over a week from said split at 10mb is a very quick response. Synoptics will then get better and better and better. With such a strong signal I would have thought by Sunday many will be salivating at what is around the corner. Patience Grasshopper, patience.

Edited by comet
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

So it's day 10 we are at which should mean that the 9 day T+216 chart on ECMWF and GFS tomorrow should show a similar pattern, or am I talking rubbish again? You never know bot the 00z and 12z may shows almost total similarity to one another and to the 240 h chart this afternoon.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
17 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

 my guess is that the cold situation is looking good, any snow though?

Get the cold in place first..:D..if we get an easterly like some of the models show, the north sea will turn into a snow making machine..I'm quietly confident things will work out very well through the extended outlook..generally cold zonality in the meantime..looking good for coldies!:cold-emoji:

 

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
26 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Mmm what kind off sausage ?? Yep starting to build some momentum now some really good charts appearing ?. 

I shall leave that to your imagination...

I’m still not sure at what stage however we will get cross model synoptic agreement, but I’m expecting it to be very close to day 5

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Just wondering if day 10 will make it to day 6 let alone 1. I think when the models firm up it may all of a sudden bring it to like day 5 or something. Getting ahead of myself now though I think

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
1 hour ago, sausage said:

is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

Calm down sausage. We're in with more than a good shout.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I would hazard a guess that ECM would have finished like this peturb had it not dragged its heels(excuse the elongation)

gensnh-17-1-240.png

 

ECH1-240.GIF?08-0

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Well if one can’t be optimistic about what is currently unfolding then we might as well switch the lights off as we leave the building . It’s not often things come together but maybe just maybe we will get lucky . We just need an are of HP to set up in the right location.

Well the way I read it is it will be fairly HLB and it aint going to be over Canada so that leaves Greenland or Scandi or both ,heavens that would be rather nice.There is the chance that we may get a blend of Svaldanavianland....sends a shiver down the spine.

gfsnh-0-336.png?12

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