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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gravy boat being stirred...

And the dinner will be worth the wait....

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

filterMJO_vp_Phase.png

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

ensplume_small.gif

gfsnh-0-192.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS finally looks like getting there.

Theres still an issue with how quickly low pressure near the UK fills and clears se and whether it separates from the upstream trough.

This run came perilously close to a phasing tragedy with the upstream troughing .

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I think this suggests well why OPs and ENS should not be taken for minute detail for some time yet. Model chaos it’s the good sort though as we always seem to go in a positive direction.

06z92F5931A-AAFF-44C0-A39A-B86331695319.thumb.png.7a2aa7f3118b7ceae1d2f922e9f1499c.png12zFB345393-19C3-47CE-95DF-0139F2E41238.thumb.png.954f76466d0e83192d3213f6dbfa98e0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

Hmmmmm Easterly (Not cold) but south East Europe is having an early spring.

Should eventually get colder uppers from Scandinavia once high retrogresses towards Iceland opening a Northerly blast

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

Hmmmmm Easterly (Not cold) but south East Europe is having an early spring.

Can we have a greenland high please? Anything from the east is always on dodgy ground. Such a strong PV continually modelled over canada/greenland. Will the SSW nuke it...a split will just strengthen the lobe over that area...maybe (?). Atlantic looks strong, even the above chart has a LP system heading to the UK.

Edit...just seen a fat sausage entering greenland.

Edited by Chevron12345
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 hour ago, craigore said:

To my eye that just looks mainly cold & wet ( hill snow) wth lots of P.M air , good for Scotland & elavation , not so nice for the rest.

That's why I said that it doesn't look good on face value

Look at all the greens to our north. Blocky

Onto the 12z run of the GFS and BOOOOOOOM...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

This would result in the coldest February spell since 2009 or 2010. Possibly even 1996

 

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 minute ago, Chevron12345 said:

Can we have a greenland high please? Anything from the east is always on dodgy ground. Such a strong PV continually modelled over canada/greenland. Will the SSW nuke it...a split will just strengthen the lobe over that area...maybe (?). Atlantic looks strong, even the above chart has a LP system heading to the UK.

gfs-1-234.png?12

Low going nowhere as the east marches on.

gfs-0-252.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Small block developing too....should see us through to mid summer.

With the wind reversal we may just squeeze that lump of PV at the top of the chart under our new block:pardon:

gfsnh-0-348.png?12

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

This is getting exciting from the Gfs 12z, the change could be starting in just over a week from now..lots more changes to come but the trend is lovely!!:D:cold-emoji:

12_216_mslp850.png

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12_312_mslp850.png

12_360_mslp850.png

12_384_mslp850.png

12_336_preciptype.png

12_384_preciptype.png

Last pic shows the atlantic bashing through!! ;)

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

plenty of potential for you folks back home...nice to see maybe i will not alone in shoveling snow from driveways and footpaths this year.:snowman-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
4 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Last pic shows the atlantic bashing through!! ;)

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Okay Dokay....or a mass snow storm over the UK in another 24hrs

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Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

Disappointing Ensembles really but plenty of time for change :)

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

This looks promising NAO and AO taking a good nose dive

9780387E-BDB9-4610-90DF-61E6E8E56604.jpeg

4ACA6B2A-EF9B-4F24-B3F9-045FAEC2D056.jpeg

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is anyone else starting to worry about this coming to nothing or is it just me? the models are just not cutting it for me. 10 days plus i cannot get excited anymore about regardless of a ssw from previous experiences. the meto might look ace but theyd rather mild weather so wud never apolagise for flipping their forecasts to mild!! 

on another note why are we gettong rain from systems rather than snow like france. surely the stupid nose of the azores wud also pump milder air ahead of it across france too. the models look full of sbow potential but never materalises! this weeks cold spell that we all foolishly got excited about has produced nothing decent in terms of snow or that cold whatso ever!!

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