Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Quite so James we need the Atlantic to interfere just a bit so that we don't have to rely just on disturbances in the easterly flow to spread the snow around .One of the reasons I like the idea of a Greenie or Icewegian high rather than a straightforward Scandie job. The former tend to allow just enough interference from the Atlantic to make it a bit more interesting snow wise down south and out west. 

 

A Greenie high would encourage an arctic air mass (Northerly winds) to be drawn south so it would be win win as a Scandinavian anticyclone is strongly supported too, could be a double whammy, from the n / e!!:D:cold:

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

A cold spell seems inevitable now

Even this from the 06z run of the GFS...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

...has a lot of northern 'blockiness' even though, on face value, it doesn't look good for cold weather

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes you maybe right BA . But the GFS 00z had this for Day 10 -IMG_1303.thumb.PNG.6684bd3fd3fb079069fd689b3abc0964.PNG

And the GFS 6z had this for day 10IMG_1310.thumb.PNG.a8d2968bec750e7ee862c3ec77eb051c.PNG

so I really don't think it does have a handle on the SSW , It's completely different . ?

I wouldn’t be looking at ops post day 7 for any particular detail other than ‘look, there is blocking somewhere ‘ or ‘ look, it’s mobile with a strong vortex ‘

i’m referring more to the means and clusters 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
1 hour ago, LRD said:

A cold spell seems inevitable now

Even this from the 06z run of the GFS...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

...has a lot of northern 'blockiness' even though, on face value, it doesn't look good for cold weather

 

To my eye that just looks mainly cold & wet ( hill snow) wth lots of P.M air , good for Scotland & elavation , not so nice for the rest.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
3 minutes ago, craigore said:

To my eye that just looks mainly cold & wet ( hill snow) wth lots of P.M air , good for Scotland & elavation , not so nice for the rest.

It may look like it at the moment but there is a lot going on in the background, Im not going to guess where it’s heading as I’m not an expert but I wouldn’t be taking the models at face value, all I can says is there will be a lot of flip flopping be it good or bad nobody knows.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 hour ago, Tamara said:

 (Space saving)

Ideally though, at least in my opinion, the best timing for the SSW would have been in the last 10 days, in tandem with the massive AAM surge and GWO in most amplified phases.

All possibilities, including good ones remain, but I think its important to gauge the SSW against what has been and gone and how the cyclical nature of the atmosphere may influence (mitigate or enhance) the tropospheric effects of the implosion within the polar field.

 

 

Thanks for the excellent input as usual Tamara :good:

I find it encouraging that even the negative-happy GEFS have trended away from taking AAM back into into Nina GWO territory;

gfsgwo_1.png

It was outside the circle for much longer until today's update :)

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Really quiet in here right now!!nothing WOW has developed on this run i assume aswell then?!!!if its better than the 06z i happily take it!!

gfs-0-144.png?12

Atlantic digging further south. Its a change at least,,,, Possibility of some snow on the northern edge dependant of the track

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
21 minutes ago, shaky said:

Really quiet in here right now!!nothing WOW has developed on this run i assume aswell then?!!!if its better than the 06z i happily take it!!

It's only out to T+144. Not expecting any eye candy til at least T+240 as per @chionomaniac 's message earlier. Obviously in the coming days the eye candy charts will hopefully be getting a lot closer :D.

Edited by Paul_1978
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

UKMO looking really good.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

Sure is a wall going up to the east by day 6 - shame we have such a vigorous LP system paying us a visit in the meantime.

If it kept adjusting south though, it'd end up shallower and further SE relative to the UK.

Such a trend I would anticipate with some confidence if it wasn't for the way ECM's kept on producing a deeper low that stalls out further NW.


Edit: Some progress with UKMO though!

UW144-21.GIF?08-17 UN144-21.GIF?08-17

The piling up of low heights and cold air in our vicinity is going to complicate matters when it comes to quietening down the Atlantic but get the jet stream far enough into Europe and it can be done in the space of a few days. 

hgt300.png hgt300.png
Jet across N. Atlantic slightly weaker on GFS 12z (right), another positive adjustment.

Edited by Singularity
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

h850t850eu.png

Block well propped by low tucking in underneath, Atlantic driving WAA due north up western flank.

Any push of the boundary east from the Atlantic going forward will surely be modelling error; the setup is almost (i.e. a tilt of the WAA toward SE-NW alignment away from) as much of an easterly precursor as it gets even if there wasn't a SSW involved.

Edited by Singularity
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
14 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

UKMO looking really good.

Continuation of trend for taking low pressure more south distinct possibility of a disruptive snow event in the next 7 days. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npsh500.png npsh500.png

Much more useful positioning of the major blocking high on this run (right) :good:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

UKMO has a strong -AO at 144z.86447138-4EAA-400F-A594-2852323D204A.thumb.gif.750a668e1baf5af638098cec4a7d7e14.gif

 

The GFS is now onto the correct solution. Scandi HP developing. Retrogression to Greenland is on the horizon. (20th approx)

AFBCE0EA-F24F-4A83-A3F4-30D433FB162F.thumb.png.c127346c4a520084fed791e721b85145.png

 

610A7B42-040C-44DC-B311-E906FC496939.thumb.png.80fe4f86636bdba229bb5fc03ed40799.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...