Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Snowy L]

Looks to me as though the Atlantic is allready stalling at 180-189. The main LP over Iceland is moving NNW

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps only go to T360 ???

I was referring more to your post about the ec46. 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

really!!??..this is the 180..azhp flat...and dieing a death...with the pv...-latter frames?!l

Typo, I meant 150hrs. 

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Looks to me as though the Atlantic is allready stalling at 180-189. The main LP over Iceland is moving NNW

Also much better Arctic High on this run at 195.

[tight isobar]

Be a good point here for those viewing -raw/operationals to begin to note the large lobe canadian vortex becoming disfigured!..

This is effects and morphing of atomospheric responces..and the conversion of transfer!!!

Edited February 6, 2018 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Be a good point here for those viewing -raw/operationals to begin to note the large lobe canadian vortex becoming dissfigured!..

This is effects and morphing of atomospheric responces..and the conversion of transfer!!!

It must be a big concern though that the ecm seems intent on Europe not winning the Strato raffle!. At least in terms of qtr. 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It must be a big concern though that the ecm seems intent on Europe not winning the Strato raffle!. At least in terms of qtr. 

Be large scale divergance given what is at hand!!!

@early days!!!

Edited February 6, 2018 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I was referring more to your post about the ec46. 

Ok but it wasn’t really about the 46 - I just referenced that as having good continuity from recent extended eps suites 

anyway, just checked out the clusters and I think that run is probably best filed away! 

[Snowy L]

Heres that gap starting to appear above the UK at t228. This is what a response to the vortex being blown apart looks like. Take note ECM.

[chionomaniac]

It's a pity that we are having to wait until the end of the output before we think that any strat response will be shown (to the SSW). 18Z GFS starting to get interesting again towards day 10

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It must be a big concern though that the ecm seems intent on Europe not winning the Strato raffle!. At least in terms of qtr. 

Way too early to judge a model that ends its run three days after the ssw. We have a rampant Canadian vortex in the trop. It won’t just disappear. Give the ec op another couple runs to get a qtr into view

Edited February 6, 2018 by bluearmy

[Dean E]

25 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Well by 18z gfs a much better profile..

Remember the 180 hrs!! -mark point-..

And still 10hpa tagging along nicely...op run!!

GFS been rock sold for the forecast SSW now for over a week (possibly longer?). If this works out as forecast, the GFS has done a ace job.

Until the SSW has occured, the output post the weekend should be taken (as always in these setups) with a pinch of salt.

[ICE COLD]

And here she comes on the GFS 18z ?. 

Even quicker on this run ?

Edited February 6, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Ice Day]

Looks like lift off at 264....it's edging a little closer (of course well out in FI so just for fun!)

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Way too early to judge a model that ends its run three days after the ssw. We have a rampant Canadian vortex in the trop. It won’t just disappear. Give the ec op another couple runs to get a qtr into view

Thing is even at day 10 the ECM shows absolutely nothing. Im not talking about crazy cold, Im talking about the small signs that the vortex is under attack. GFS has it at days 8-10 (the deep lows associated with the vortex struggling to move East, lows weakening as they cross above the UK). ECM shows none of that and shows unrelenting zonal right out to day 10.

[TEITS]

As I keep saying the 19th Feb is a day to note on your calender.

ECM shouid make interesting viewing towards the end of the week!

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looks like lift off at 264....it's edging a little closer (of course well out in FI so just for fun!)

The signs are there as early as day 7 with the Icelandic low not taking the normal path eastwards up to the Arctic Ocean and instead stalling. ECM has not picked up on anything even by day 10.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Snowy L

[Snowmadsam]

I’m needing to sit down again on the 18z...

its fascinating watching a SSW being modelling, and I suspect even more interesting seeing what develops from it. For inexperienced people like myself, this month will really build on knowledge. 

18z is going to have another round by the looks of things...

[ICE COLD]

Great charts appearing now ?

[Daniel*]

The SE especially looks highest risk of seeing some back edge snow, GFS 18z shows completely rain for most of country some some truly very cold dew points catch up from NW, it could be a dramatic event 

 

[Scandinavian High.]

Very interesting charts to come I feel within week or so and with meto going for easterly and very cold weather very exciting times ahead but you all ways get some folks on here being down beat and bring mood down we are in very good shout for proper winter weather later part of Feb as some of pros/chionomaniac on here have  mentioned over last couple of days .

Edited February 6, 2018 by abbie123

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Thing is even at day 10 the ECM shows absolutely nothing. Im not talking about crazy cold, Im talking about the small signs that the vortex is under attack. GFS has it at days 8-10 (the deep lows associated with the vortex struggling to move East, lows weakening as they cross above the UK). ECM shows none of that and shows unrelenting zonal right out to day 10.

It can’t get a low past the meridian ...... got to count for something given the upstream vortex and strength of the jet ....

we may be looking at tomorrow’s 12z day 10 to see developments over the polar field 

[John Michael How]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Beijing model monthly forecast:

High latitude blocking fairly extensive, blocking over Greenland & likewise CFSv2 certainly a signal there for the elusive Greenland high and decent cold anomalies. 

I take note of the BCC they were the only weather model saying we'd have a seasonal winter this year if I remember rightly trumping the cfs etc

[Ice Day]

Another wacky FI run on the GFS (aren't they all I hear you cry!).  But these runs are at least consistent with showing HLB all over the shop such as this weird chart

These are just outside the ECM's timeframe at the moment but tomorrow's 12z and Thursday's 0z may just start to show something of interest. Another brilliant week of model watching coming up (if you have the stamina to cope).

[Duane S.]

18z showing the way, that’s a VQTR. I like the way the Arctic High loitered, waited for its opportunity and as soon as the vortex started to let go, snuck in nicely.

I must admit to being a little surprised an ECM OP has yet to join the party by D10. Its coming very soon though surely, probably tomorrow. We’ll see.

A reminder needed for some though that are going to be subjected to a myriad of different outcomes displayed in graphic format by the models in the coming days. Some showing us in the wrong place for cold, some absolutely amazing charts bordering on perfection for us (and countless more inbetween).

Nobody can be sure yet if we will get lucky but we are in with a good shout. The outpouring of very cold into some mid lattitide areas almost certainly IS going to occur, my guess starting around the 18th. A nice 40 year anniversary gift!?