Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[sausage]

steve n co you need a warm north sea to create convection! in march 13 we had -12/13 uppers did bothinh but a few snow flurries because it wasnt nov dec jan etc. there were so many posts about this inc your own steve about how we need very cold ups n a warmer nortg sea to create convection in an easterly!!!!

[ghoneym]

@sausage Have a read..... 

North Sea temps may not be a problem if the Easterly does come.

Essentialy what this study found was that split start vortex events had a quick response downward porpogation which effected both land and sea temps. Vs a displacement event which did not have the net overall effect. Also mention was a 30 day -ve AO state (NAM in document) During a split vortex event. 

Edited February 6, 2018 by ghoneym
.

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, sausage said:

steve n co you need a warm north sea to create convection! in march 13 we had -12/13 uppers did bothinh but a few snow flurries because it wasnt nov dec jan etc. there were so many posts about this inc your own steve about how we need very cold ups n a warmer nortg sea to create convection in an easterly!!!!

The difference is, North Sea Temperatures were very below average in March 2013

This year they're average/slightly above

So convection shouldn't be too much of a problem assuming the conditions are right, i.e instability etc.. but worrying about details like that at this range isn't worth it.

[joggs]

Guys,we're miles of that dream set up,let's just keep it in check and enjoy the ride.

Don't want a e're in of the last easterly debacle.

But the coming set up,as far out as it is,looks a good chance to get some great synoptics playing out.

Steady as she goes......

Edited February 6, 2018 by joggs

[bluearmy]

52 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes!  Now that the models are latching onto a QTR I’d expect that to be accelerated.

 

but given the ssw is progged for the 12th, just how quickly would you expect the trop output to show some 'eye candy' ? Surely the current gfs idea of heights starting to increase end next week is reasonable ??

btw, for those who say that last weeks se uk 'snowy charts' were a figment of peoples imaginations on here, have a look at some n france webcams. its not that far away !!

Edited February 6, 2018 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op was pants for mid / late Feb but the 6z and 12z have gone from strength to strength and are showing the potential that coldies want to see !!..this is just the beginning, I think we are going to be seeing some even more amazing charts in the days ahead!

[mulzy]

Very zonal 12z ECM, though the PV does relent at the end of the run.  Where it would go from there, no-one can say but no eye candy within the 10 day range for sure.

Edited February 6, 2018 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Very zonal 12z ECM, though the PV does relent at the end of the run.  Where it would go from there, no-one can say but no eye candy within the 10 day range for sure.

At least it's generally cold zonal with just the occasional less cold / milder day..rather wintry at times for sure!❄❄❄❄

Edited February 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[Chevron12345]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

At least it's generally cold zonal with just the occasional less cold / milder day..rather wintry at times for sure!❄❄❄❄

Cold zonal indeed. But horrid wet, windy weather. This is certainly the theme for the foreseable...according to the current charts.

[nick sussex]

38 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

but given the ssw is progged for the 12th, just how quickly would you expect the trop output to show some 'eye candy' ? Surely the current gfs idea of heights starting to increase end next week is reasonable ??

btw, for those who say that last weeks se uk 'snowy charts' were a figment of peoples imaginations on here, have a look at some n france webcams. its not that far away !!

I wasn’t talking about eye candy but signs of the quick trop response within T240 hrs.

I think you’re talking of the block already in place , I’m expecting  to see those changes towards that starting within T240 hrs.

Time will tell, as long as we get there a few days either way doesn’t matter, of course though I’m happy to eat some humble pie if the QTR isn’t accelerated ! 

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I wasn’t talking about eye candy but signs of the quick trop response within T240 hrs.

I think you’re talking of the block already in place , I’m expecting  to see those changes towards that starting within T240 hrs.

Time will tell, as long as we get there a few days either way doesn’t matter, of course though I’m happy to eat some humble pie if the QTR isn’t accelerated ! 

 

ok - that clears things up a little. so you agree that we wont see any 'cold affects' of any qtr in nw Europe before 17/18th feb at the earliest ?  I think posters were thinking that the models would suddenly flip to cold sypnotics earlier  based on your thoughts.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Cold zonal indeed. But horrid wet, windy weather. This is certainly the theme for the foreseable...according to the current charts.

• There would be colder showery spells too with a risk of snow and frosty, icy nights, there is some pretty cold uppers at times on the Ecm 12z.

[johnholmes]

Cold zonal indeed. But horrid wet, windy weather. This is certainly the theme for the foreseable...according to the current charts.

• There would be colder showery spells too with a risk of snow and frosty, icy nights, there is some pretty cold uppers at times on the Ecm12z.

And the above brilliantly describes why new folk get confused.

Both reading the same model and output.

 

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ok - that clears things up a little. so you agree that we wont see any 'cold affects' of any qtr in nw Europe before 17/18th feb at the earliest ?  I think posters were thinking that the models would suddenly flip to cold sypnotics earlier  based on your thoughts.

What I am expecting to see in the output is not something dissimilar to ecm then as time goes on the heights building over us and then those heights drifting ne and introducing an easterly. Hope the models are listening. 

Edited February 6, 2018 by That ECM

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Cold zonal indeed. But horrid wet, windy weather. This is certainly the theme for the foreseable...according to the current charts.

• There would be colder showery spells too with a risk of snow and frosty, icy nights, there is some pretty cold uppers at times on the Ecm12z.

And the above brilliantly describes why new folk get confused.

Both reading the same model and output.

 

Have i summed it up reasonably well?..if not, please let me know there is some colder showery weather as well as the milder wet and  windy stuff.

[Methuselah]

From what I can gather from the extended MeteoGroup forecasts and the GFS12Z, there's not much to look forward to, apart from cool/average zonality, until about Day 12...After that, it's Snowmageddon. As usual!?

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ok - that clears things up a little. so you agree that we wont see any 'cold affects' of any qtr in nw Europe before 17/18th feb at the earliest ?  I think posters were thinking that the models would suddenly flip to cold sypnotics earlier  based on your thoughts.

I think we might see some westwards and south corrections during that period with a bit more se tilt to the jet but in terms of deeper cold coming round a strong block then yes around the dates you mentioned looks reasonable .

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The 12z GFS kind of makes sense given the background signals. I don't expect things to suddenly turn fridgid from mid month but the quick turnaround from the zonal spell coming up with the Atlantic backing off with the cold air tending to dig further south in the Atlantic with heights building north close to the UK which could then go on to building further north as we head towards the end of the month.

      

GEFs show the reduction in lower heights to our north west (I still expect a trough there but with heights tending to build northwards near the UK and towards Scandinavia with lower heights setting up over southern Europe perhaps towards the end of the extended period.)

Still a lot of scatter in the ensembles as would be expected given how the upper strat is about to be mullered in the coming week or so.

[Snowy L]

32 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

At least it's generally cold zonal with just the occasional less cold / milder day..rather wintry at times for sure!❄❄❄❄

I dont know why this is preferred for anyone who doesnt live on the mountains of the UK. Give me rain and 15c over rain and 4c any day.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I dont know why this is preferred for anyone who doesnt live on the mountains of the UK. Give me rain and 15c over rain and 4c any day.

I prefer the chance of wintry showers and frosts that the Ecm 12z shows between the milder wet and windy spells..rather that than a sw / ne aligned jet with constant tropical maritime mush..anyway, hoping the SSW lives up to coldies expectations and that the best of this winter is still to come!!

Edited February 6, 2018 by Frosty.

[SnowJon]

26 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Have i summed it up reasonably well?..if not, please let me know there is some colder showery weather as well as the milder wet and  windy stuff.

Absolutely - great summary! Seen about 3 or 4 snow showers today at sea level and the models suggest many more to come at various stages over the next few days! Superb winter weather with plenty more to come

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean mirrors the operational with a generally unsettled and rather cold  zonal pattern but with the occasional less cold / milder wet and windy spells but it would be cold enough at times, especially further north for wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow with some frosty / icy nights.

[bluearmy]

Extended eps lose the plot wrt to previous output and the ec 46, losing any low euro heights by the back end week 2 .......

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Extended eps lose the plot wrt to previous output and the ec 46, losing any low euro heights by the back end week 2 .......

There is a concern....

 

BFTP

[bluearmy]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

There is a concern....

 

BFTP

Given their better resolution in the strat - yes. Weak neg AO on this suite at odds with the gefs and geps. I think tomorrow morning’s run will be viewed with interest in Exeter, assumig the clusters don’t reveal anything obvious.