Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Singularity]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM 00z op was a huge outlier in FI. 

True, I did mean with adjustments - in fact ones akin to what GFS has just done;

The next LP swings in a lot further west. Getting the impression that the historical 'adjustments to be south' guidance isn't worth much given a very small sample size; adjustments west may well be the way it happens after all.

[ICE COLD]

Here she comes ?

Edited February 6, 2018 by ICE COLD

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Here she comes ?

Looks dry

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Looks dry

Get the cold in first and all that ?. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Got the cold in now but there were no upgrades in the charts this week ☹️

Edited February 6, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[tight isobar]

Oh ok then if we have too?@rosbby waves @ssw @mjo @serious blocking.

There is no-reason 'given the signaling, and evolution that we will not end up like this...i think coming into nearer time frame also...as we gain on atmospheric responses!!!

Classic end to winter!!??

Likely imo!

 

 

Lets just wack-the 6z london ens on this.

And await for compare the 12z set... to which i'll add to the post when they are out!!!

Edited February 6, 2018 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

Given that this gfs op evolution follows the general evolution in the upper strat I would say this run is also showing a QTR 

 

[chionomaniac]

LOL. If @Catacol or I could have drawn the run that we expected from day 10 then the GFS 12Z has just saved us the bother! This type of SSW and the way it has evolved was always going to deliver a quick trop response. Always the question though that will we see the cold when it drops into the mid latitudes. As I said the other night we have the best chances for a long time.

[Daniel*]

Could frame that in extreme FI I take it but a plausible scenario of many cold.

[Chesil View]

All I would say to all our cold and snow loving members at the moment is that some of the FI ops and ens are just starting to sniff a change in the air. Although I think you'll find that the abrupt change in flow will be brought forward somewhat over the next few days modelling. As Blue army hs just posted it is already starting to look like  quick trop response.

 It is easy after the disappointments and disasters of the last few few winters to  build up a glass half empty attitude almost as a self defence against being let down by suggested cold synoptics. However what is starting to be shown is a very very real possibility. This winter has already shown in some regions what can happen with just a nw/se diving jet in place . Imagine what could happen with that jet and a genuine monster cold block to the North or North east..................

[Dean E]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

LOL. If @Catacol or I could have drawn the run that we expected from day 10 then the GFS 12Z has just saved us the bother! This type of SSW and the way it has evolved was always going to deliver a quick trop response. Always the question though that will we see the cold when it drops into the mid latitudes. As I said the other night we have the best chances for a long time.

Agreed Chino, one of the best SSW I've seen in many winters.

This is the GFS forecast for Monday 12th after a weekend of warming. GFS has been spot on so far with this warming.

When in the last few winters have we even seen close to this!

[bluearmy]

@nick sussex - are you still expecting the nwp to flip QTR before day 10 ???

[Rollo]

12 minutes ago, sausage said:

gosh this model output is draining. going to be march at this rate. easterlies dont wrk in march due to north sea temps. i remember that from march 13. Just cant get excited about anything. all this met office talk of systems running into uk producing snow. erm im not seeing this at all!! this week really was over ramped probably also why steve murrs gone so quiet!!come on models for once give us something amazing, not good, something mouth watering. a few days of easterly prolonged heavy natiomwide snow showers will do!!

I understood that North Sea temperatures were at their lowest in early March , if that is the case we are certainly in the game.

[karlos1983]

Control run has read the script as well

[shaky]

Is there no ukmo charts today peeps??

[That ECM]

If you look through all 20 gefs plus the control at t300 ish. Everyone of them has a very disorganised pv. Heights in different places and differing strengths as you would expect but very interesting and I think it's fair to say that gfs is factoring a ssw.

[Methuselah]

Apart from the ever-present far-FI BfTE, I can't see much of interest, on the 12Z, apart from whatever tonight brings...Jam tomorrow. Jam tomorrow. Jam tomorrow!

Unless of course, I've suddenly come down with Blue-Green Colour Blindness!

[nick sussex]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

@nick sussex - are you still expecting the nwp to flip QTR before day 10 ???

Yes!  Now that the models are latching onto a QTR I’d expect that to be accelerated.

 

[Summer Sun]

Could @Paul maybe add QTR to that word describer thing which is used for the likes of ECM, UKMO etc it is popping up a lot in this thread but many don't know what it stands for

[SMU]

30 minutes ago, sausage said:

gosh this model output is draining. going to be march at this rate. easterlies dont wrk in march due to north sea temps. i remember that from march 13. Just cant get excited about anything. all this met office talk of systems running into uk producing snow. erm im not seeing this at all!! this week really was over ramped probably also why steve murrs gone so quiet!!come on models for once give us something amazing, not good, something mouth watering. a few days of easterly prolonged heavy natiomwide snow showers will do!!

Early March are when the North Sea temps are at their lowest lol-

I will try & dunk a post in about 930 tonight

S

[Summer Sun]

Not often you see westerlies this cold

[shotski]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Apart from the ever-present far-FI BfTE, I can't see much of interest, on the 12Z, apart from whatever tonight brings...Jam tomorrow. Jam tomorrow. Jam tomorrow!

Unless of course, I've suddenly come down with Blue-Green Colour Blindness!

No but you might be suffering from premature reactivation ?

[tight isobar]

42 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Oh ok then if we have too?@rosbby waves @ssw @mjo @serious blocking.

There is no-reason 'given the signaling, and evolution that we will not end up like this...i think coming into nearer time frame also...as we gain on atmospheric responses!!!

Classic end to winter!!??

Likely imo!

 

 

Lets just wack-the 6z london ens on this.

And await for compare the 12z set... to which i'll add to the post when they are out!!!

12z.. good signs moving forwards...

And preety much below av-throughout.

[Catacol]

33 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

LOL. If @Catacol or I could have drawn the run that we expected from day 10 then the GFS 12Z has just saved us the bother! This type of SSW and the way it has evolved was always going to deliver a quick trop response. Always the question though that will we see the cold when it drops into the mid latitudes. As I said the other night we have the best chances for a long time.

Yep - that 12z backs up the 00z and the 06z - block building and atlantic disrupting and being driven in reverse. :-) The most interesting bit to me is that each of those 3 runs has brought the strength of the block forward. 12z has it gripping the pattern from Friday week - with the reversal set for the 12th I reckon this could creep a bit earlier still...  meaning we are setup for some awesome charts for return to school week. I know its eons out in FI and normally I would laugh at these - but as we have ducks in a row and the GFS consistently modelling this setup now I have to throw this out:

Run the images from 240 onwards - low pressures are running east to west underneath the growing block. This will be seriously cold : -12 850s on that FI setup. The east coast will be buried... and for those of us snow starved southerners (nothing again today :-( -  we have to hope there is enough of anything in the atlantic to provide some frontal system action somewhere along the line.

Someone call the White Witch. Aslan's off on holiday.

Edited February 6, 2018 by Catacol

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Given that we are a small island on the edge of a relatively warm ocean especially at our latitude, we can't afford to be choosy as to when we see a cold spell! 

Often our best snowfalls have fallen at the back end of winter and even during the months of March and April. There's been a fair few blizzards and thundersnow events in April, one of which I got caught out in doing the morning paper round during 2008. That was also when the beginning of the last solar minimum was taking hold. I understand the frustration with the lengthening days and warmth of the strengthening sun taking the edge off the events, but it's better than nothing at all. And with the sea temperature lag, the Suns strength on this part of the world makes little difference in comparison to many other places, and its more often than not in December, our uppers get watered down too much, due to the warmth of the surrounding sea. Let's just enjoy what we get. I think this spring could well be a notable one for cold, given the SSW forecast.