Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Catacol]

5 minutes ago, offerman said:

In My opinion we need the High to revert to this position that ive marked for brilliant snow possibilities. I remember a Michael Fish forecast back in thje 80`s with he used the magnetic symbols and two highs joined in to one and extended right up as i marked.So it is possible.

Agree - and I think this is exactly where it is set to be for a while. ECM posted above for Feb 15 has it well and truly in its box also.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Catacol

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agree - and I think this is exactly where it is set to be for a while. ECM posted above for Feb 15 has it well and truly in its box also.

Charts that are primmed for compete SPLIT!!.

And with factors on offer its only likely to sharpen!.

[Jemma Croton]

4 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

It's no surprise that the vortex wants to have one last laugh. It's a bit like putting pressure on a balloon, as it distorts the strain builds until the moment it bursts.The wave two displaces each daughter vortex which stay strong, until the warming weakens them.

Just want to say that this is a really super analogy Chio. I used it to explain things to my son with autism and it made sense to him straight away. It’s a gift to be able to put things into terms even those withoutbthe additional knowledge can understand 

[terrier]

So I’m seeing a lot of talk about and ssw taking place as we head into February Now I know these things can unlock the cold into Europe. But isn’t they a chance we could Still miss out on the cold. These ssw don’t guarantee cold to our shores. Not been rude or offensive to the more knowledgeable guys. Just interested and keen to learn abit more about it. 

[Rayth]

24 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

Just want to say that this is a really super analogy Chio. I used it to explain things to my son with autism and it made sense to him straight away. It’s a gift to be able to put things into terms even those withoutbthe additional knowledge can understand 

Couldn’t agree more with this , @Catacol mentioned Dr Amy Butler and she gave an analogy on Twitter too , she wrote 

Here’s a simple (but imperfect) analogy. Think of a big bowl of water where you start stirring in one direction very fast. That’s like the winter stratosphere, 6-30 miles above the Arctic.Now you put your hand into the spinning flow. What happens? The water rapidly decelerates and the flow would become chaotic. In the atmosphere, atmospheric waves are slamming into the stratospheric flow and decelerating it. This makes the atmosphere rapidly warm.In the stratosphere when the vortex rapidly slows, those effects descend down to the surface. It generally shifts jet streams towards the equator which allows colder Arctic air to move to lower latitudes

Edited February 5, 2018 by lorenzo
Fixing GIGANTIC FONT !

[tight isobar]

Ec-ukmo @96.. cold firmly back on the cards!!!

[Fozfoster]

2 minutes ago, Greggers said:

Latest MetO long range update still set on the cold/possibly very cold scenario through mid to late feb/early March... tying in nicely with the general model trends?

I couldn’t agree more but us in the U.K. are the unluckiest country in the world for getting cold weather in. but I am Still a believer ?

[tesaro]

35 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Musing about Feb 15. Amy Butler has tweeted an expectation that the SSW of Feb 12 will begin to force storm tracks equatorwards after about 3 days. This is the ECM for the start of that potential process

I'm seeing very cold air dropping into the mid Atlantic with pressure rising to the north and Scandy pressure also I suspect on the rise. Storm track set to shift further south as impacts of the reversal are felt and cold begins to tumble southwards.

Is this the precursor to the mother of all undercut scenarios?? I wonder what ECM would look like for weekend of 17/18. A bit of southerly adjustment and this would be the biggest blizzard since... well.... the last time we had a big blizzard.

Hmmmmmm.

You know I was just thinking the same thing when you posted that! I know most peeps on here like a bit of the White stuff but if that frigid lump of Vortex got south of the UK I don’t think you would see your Daffodils until the Bluebells had finished flowering.

[SteveB]

41 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Musing about Feb 15. Amy Butler has tweeted an expectation that the SSW of Feb 12 will begin to force storm tracks equatorwards after about 3 days. This is the ECM for the start of that potential process

I'm seeing very cold air dropping into the mid Atlantic with pressure rising to the north and Scandy pressure also I suspect on the rise. Storm track set to shift further south as impacts of the reversal are felt and cold begins to tumble southwards.

Is this the precursor to the mother of all undercut scenarios?? I wonder what ECM would look like for weekend of 17/18. A bit of southerly adjustment and this would be the biggest blizzard since... well.... the last time we had a big blizzard.

Hmmmmmm.

It's so long ago we had a blizzard down South, most on this forum were probably not born.

I know I was only 4-5yrs old, and I'm nearly 43.

[Chris.R]

1 post on the ECM coming out...just 1!

Come on guys I’ve come on here to hear about the output of the models which are currently outputting.  

[Gael_Force]

47 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Musing about Feb 15. Amy Butler has tweeted an expectation that the SSW of Feb 12 will begin to force storm tracks equatorwards after about 3 days. This is the ECM for the start of that potential process

Somebody mentioned the warming is in similar location to the 22 Feb 1989 ssw.

The chart for 3 days afterwards. 

 

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

1 post on the ECM coming out...just 1!

Come on guys I’ve come on here to hear about the output of the models which are currently outputting.  

It's only half past, any strat influence probably past the ECM ten days anyway.

[Summer Sun]

The main 3 at t144 UKMO by far the coldest GFS the least cold and ECM in the middle

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

It's only half past, any strat influence probably past the ECM ten days anyway.

 What about from T0 to T240. That’s still important isn’t it or does that not matter anymore?  

[Banbury]

Cold firmly over the UK in 7 days ( ECM)

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 What about from T0 to T240. That’s still important isn’t it or does that not matter anymore?  

At 168 similar to the ukmo northwesterlies bringing -8 uppers to parts of the uk 

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 What about from T0 to T240. That’s still important isn’t it or does that not matter anymore?  

Keep your nicks on its only at 144z

[frosty ground]

Bit of a runner between 144 and 168 that could be very wintry on the northern flank 

Edited February 5, 2018 by frosty ground

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

At 168 similar to the ukmo northwesterlies bringing -8 uppers to parts of the uk 

Amazing considering what I've read on here recently.Any one would think the MET had a clue

[Chris.R]

 Thanks all. Looking good then for some potent pm cold into next week. Looks cold enough even for the likes of me on the coast up here. :-) 

[Optimus Prime]

Going by these charts showing north westerly winds, temperatures look like remaining a little below normal for the foreseeable (1-2°c below 81-10 avg) Nothing particularly dramatic but crucially not mild so a continued risk of sleet and hill snow for northern areas but generally just cold and unsettled elsewhere with some frost. 

[Summer Sun]

Bit more westerly at t192 slightly less cold air filtering in

[Chevron12345]

10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Bit of a runner between 144 and 168 that could be very wintry on the northern flank 

Looking cold zonal Atlantic sourced wearther for a period. GFS also looked Atlantic influenced right into FI. Good for norhern areas and scotland. 

 

Edited February 5, 2018 by Chevron12345

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks cold enough nationwide at times for snow to all levels!

[bluearmy]

so we either believe the models and their ens that we will see strong zonal first part next week or we don't  !