Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[bluearmy]

45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Thanks, so would that graphic you posted be a representation of the ecm operational output? i.e. liable to change should the next run show a qtr?  

Thats a question rather than a statement by the way. 

That chart was the gefs mean 12z

the ec op for today will be available on Berlin during the wee small hours 

the next couple of days will show us how ec op sees any initial  downwelling (or not)

also, no way will ec op show any response to the ssw yet. It’s progged around day 9. a quick response would show for our latitude approx days 12/15 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

The world could be hit by a massive meteorite and that Azores high pressure would still be in situ...almost guaranteed whilst looking at the UKMO 168z extended the first thing you'll notice is THAT staring you in the face.

They don't call the Azores high for nothing,it could well be our friend if it punches NE into the pole(forecasted)

[swfc]

Evening.ive not commented on here for a few days . After being a member on here for a good few years I can't remember seeing so much rubbish and a waste of space comments made. Not sure whats happened but its becoming like "snow watch bbc".Anyway back to weather and imo the outlook to me looks after tues wed prominently dry and frosty.mid feb given the forecast ssw and split pv may give a more wintry spell.All speculative but fi today on gfs on the 12z and0z do show blocking to the ene.

Edited February 4, 2018 by swfc

[WalsallWeather123]

With widespread -6 uppers on the Arpege, even if the precipitation does make in inland, parts of Wales and the Midlands may not even see it fall as snow. Probably sleet maybe even rain if these uppers play out

[Frosty.]

The best way I can describe tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is generally cold zonal with a mostly nw / se aligned jet once we lose the continental cold just after midweek. It looks cold for the next three days, then a little less cold on thursday and then colder again on fri / sat then briefly less cold again before colder air follows once again from the w / nw so we should all see some frosty, icy nights, some snow too and brief less cold / milder interludes of wind and rain.

[ALL ABOARD]

So even with the slightly less favourable outlook from the ecm for HLB (not that I put much credence into it as it has been pretty poor recently)  apparently by 264 all 51 members show heights rising over scandanavia. 

See tweet from Ian F. 

 

 

[Chertseystreamer79]

Maaan...-5 uppers....where did the -10 and -12's go! A sorry end to a promising set up regarding snowfall. 

Oh well...next round, winter not over yet!

[Jayfromcardiff]

12 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

With widespread -6 uppers on the Arpege, even if the precipitation does make in inland, parts of Wales and the Midlands may not even see it fall as snow. Probably sleet maybe even rain if these uppers play out

Bit misleading? Maybe sleet on the coast but definitely not inland with all elements in our favour? 

 

Anyway we'll soon see what happens but even if it does snow it'll be no more than a couple of cm.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

So even with the slightly less favourable outlook from the ecm for HLB (not that I put much credence into it as it has been pretty poor recently)  apparently by 264 all 51 members show heights rising over scandanavia. 

See tweet from Ian F. 

 

 

Excellent - a chance to check if the Icelandic clusters are indeed from ecmwf or possibly icelandic met  office generated 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Maaan...-5 uppers....where did the -10 and -12's go! A sorry end to a promising set up regarding snowfall. 

Oh well...next round, winter not over yet!

What ? You mean these ones ?

Look like -9 to -11 to me . 

[Paul_1978]

17 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Maaan...-5 uppers....where did the -10 and -12's go! A sorry end to a promising set up regarding snowfall. 

Oh well...next round, winter not over yet!

It went the same way as the “feet of snow” we were getting.

Seriously though yes you’re right - whilst next weeks cold spell has been watered down somewhat in terms of snow prospects, winter is far from over. Some of the charts in the latter stages of the 12z GFS did remind me of Feb 1991. 

[fromey]

The models need to be viewed with caution, Ian has stated this in a tweet 

the rollercoaster carry’s on

i see big flip and flops of output coming some good some bad 

[ANYWEATHER]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Bit misleading? Maybe sleet on the coast but definitely not inland with all elements in our favour? 

 

Anyway we'll soon see what happens but even if it does snow it'll be no more than a couple of cm.

Evening ,the West and north may get some wintry weather especially on high ground on Tuesday....the front dies out after that, despite a massive cold surge from the Atlantic which is very unusual ...the outlook is cold but coming from the west the cold air is naturally diluted as it comes from the west, and the strong jet stream from North America and historic cold has ruined any chances of deep cold ;;; 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The gefs mean doesn’t show much appetite for a qtr. of course it still a fair way away

A QTR was never guaranteed but the issue we have now is the time of year we're seeing the SSW manifest. 4 weeks earlier and we would be good to go with the SSW effects being felt in Feb. However, with any lagged response here, we're looking into March which, for all intents and purpose, narrows down our options. What we ideally would want to see is HLB manifest around Greenland/Iceland so that we can funnel cold down from a higher latitude (North East) rather than dragging it across what will be an ever warming continent by the time March arrives. 

Mildly negative uppers and a veil of stratus wouldn't be anyone's cup of tea I'd imagine (and before anyone cites March 2013- that was a 1 in 50 year event)

Edited February 4, 2018 by CreweCold

[Flaked Queen]

2 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

Yes , you get fog in London and mist in the northwest whoever gets what they'll moan about it and demand the other. 

Erm are u gatecrashing M ? 

[Duane S.]

What a dour experience the last 20 minutes was reading some of the dross posted in this forum.

Some of the best Synoptics and potential  we’ve seen for years and some (the same 2 or 3 newer members) seem steadfastly determined to spread their doom and gloom, for reasons only known to themselves. To be honest, I don’t really know why they bother to come on the forum because they make no effort to contribute constructively or attempt to learn. Just to nitpick and moan.

This is obviously not a dig at those ‘a little less glass half full’, who post objectively. 

 

[kold weather]

ECM ensembles do indeed show pressure increases across Scandi by 264hrs, however it does hide a few sins, for examples plenty have higher pressure ridging in from the Atlantic with LP's heading NE/E close to the UK, thus a mean SW/W flow. More and more do progressively shift towards a colder outlook with cutoff lows, but most still aren't orientated that well for deep cold, decent numbers would produce decent surface cold but not much else. 

Still, thats a long way out yet and certainly hints at something decent as an option down the line...

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

What a dour experience the last 20 minutes was reading some of the dross posted in this forum.

Some of the best Synoptics and potential  we’ve seen for years and some (the same 2 or 3 newer members) seem steadfastly determined to spread their doom and gloom, for reasons only known to themselves. To be honest, I don’t really know why they bother to come on the forum because they make no effort to contribute constructively or attempt to learn. Just to nitpick and moan.

This is obviously not a dig at those ‘a little less glass half full’, who post objectively. 

 

I have to agree it’s been a bit s##t on here the last week or so from some. We all no deep down the models are up and down like a yo-yo some good some not so depending on your preference of course. Why do some just look so far into fi for breakdowns etc just stick to a couple of days and enjoy whatever nature throws at us. We are all weather enthusiasts on here so really there shouldn’t be all this nit picking and point scoring etc. No model or anyone on here really knows what will happen in a few days let alone a week. Anyway enough of the waffle let’s see what the 18z has to say ?

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

So even with the slightly less favourable outlook from the ecm for HLB (not that I put much credence into it as it has been pretty poor recently)  apparently by 264 all 51 members show heights rising over scandanavia. 

See tweet from Ian F. 

 

 

Ian F has tweeted a couple of times now about the last few ext ecm ens all going for a build up of heights over scandi post day 10. What I just can't get my head around is the totally underwhelming ensembles for debilt at that time frame. You would expect some really cold runs in there but there just aren't any. Absolutely bizarre! The only explanation I can think of is the heights over scandi will not be quite strong enough to feed the real cold west towards us. Mmm! A familiar trend over the last few years. Edit - kold weather just about confirmed my thoughts on this. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by blizzard81

[Bullseye]

31 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Oh well only 2/3 weeks to wait for some decent cold that is far from guarenteed. Remember posts end of last week guarenteed very cold conditions with plenty of snow this week. Good luck chasing guys.

Not to go off topic too much here but I didn't see one person in here go overboard and say plenty of snow was expected this week as you have claimed but on that comment this week has yet to commence and at the moment parts of Scotland (which I would say is enjoying best winter since 2010), NI and possibly north of England are looking quite good in regard to snowy periods over coming week starting from tomorrow night. For the cold, we are looking at uppers of -10/11 into eastern England for a period of at least 36 hours which I would say isn't the norm especially over last few winters. I would say your comment is quite wrong in that regard. Anyway, much to look forward to over next few days and more so interest continues to build for the rest of this month and into March with the expected SSW event (which is looking mightly impressive even the strat gods on Twitter are seriously impressed).

[ITSY]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ian F has tweeted a couple of times now about the last few ext ecm ens all going for a build up of heights over scandi post day 10. What I just can't get my head around is the totally underwhelming ensembles for debilt at that time frame. You would expect some really cold runs in there but there just aren't any. Absolutely bizarre! The only explanation I can think of is the heights over scandi will not be quite strong enough to feed the real cold west towards us. Mmm! A familiar trend over the last few years. Edit - kold weather just about confirmed my thoughts on this. 

This is exactly where I’m at. My focus on upcoming GEFS and ecm members throughout the week will be on the n hemispheric pattern, rather than specific temp profiles. The long range bbc forecast just now had Nick Miller again mentioning the prospect for even colder or very cold weather emerging later in the month, so the pros are clearly conscious of something - perhaps they think a delayed trop response of 2 weeks or so is most likely... 

[ANYWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ian F has tweeted a couple of times now about the last few ext ecm ens all going for a build up of heights over scandi post day 10. What I just can't get my head around is the totally underwhelming ensembles for debilt at that time frame. You would expect some really cold runs in there but there just aren't any. Absolutely bizarre! The only explanation I can think of is the heights over scandi will not be quite strong enough to feed the real cold west towards us. Mmm! A familiar trend over the last few years. 

He means a meridional output cold then mild

[Ice Man 85]

19 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

What a dour experience the last 20 minutes was reading some of the dross posted in this forum.

Some of the best Synoptics and potential  we’ve seen for years and some (the same 2 or 3 newer members) seem steadfastly determined to spread their doom and gloom, for reasons only known to themselves. To be honest, I don’t really know why they bother to come on the forum because they make no effort to contribute constructively or attempt to learn. Just to nitpick and moan.

This is obviously not a dig at those ‘a little less glass half full’, who post objectively. 

 

Maybe these moaners have accepted reality?

You cannot deny that there is an ever increasing downgrade in this so called "cold spell" if you took some of the more "enthusiastic" posters on here at gospel, we'd be knee deep in snow for weeks.

I cannot see anything more than a 2-3 day chilly period early this coming week. The ECM has been pushing mild again in its latter stages for several runs now. The 12z would have my area in double figures next weekend. The GFS still shows some nice charts but I fully expect it to back down and join the ECM in the next 48 hours or so at the most.

#Wake-up and smell the coffee

Edited February 4, 2018 by Ice Man 85
typo

[chionomaniac]

The SSW effects are likely to kick in quickly,  but are just out of reach from the models just yet. The cold this week is from the current trop set up. The displaced strong trop vortex has allowed this as I pointed out earlier. The 100hPa day 10 picture shows no vortex from the Pacific - Siberia to Eurasia. Perfect for a large block tropospherically somewhere in that region......

[ANYWEATHER]

3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Maybe these moaners have accepted reality?

You cannot deny that there is an ever increasing downgrade in this so called "cold spell" if you took some of the more "enthusiastic" posters on here at gospel, we'd be knee deep in snow for weeks.

I cannot see anything more than a 2-3 day chilly period early this coming week. The ECM has been pushing mild again in its latter stages for several runs now. The 12z would have my area in double figures next weekend. The GFS still shows some nice charts but I fully expect it to back down and join EMC in the next 48 hours or so at the most.

#Wake-up and smell the coffee

The jet stream has been too strong for weeks   I said this week's ago and Steve Murr Good bless him