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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Just to continue the over - analysisation of the GFS 0z Op run, even though the 06z GFS Op is rolling out now, so this post will soon be out of date.

T96;

96-7UK.thumb.gif.ce4094988eb108e3e64910b781216fc1.gif

Cold upper air aloft over 99% of the UK.  Not exceptional by any means, but cold nonetheless.

T108;

108-7UK.thumb.gif.59f4cb3269bcf7efded107478c19cc3a.gif

Cold for the majority of England & Wales, with a weather front entering NW parts bringing less cold air with it.  The -5c 850hpa line covering most of England & Wales, north of the home counties northwards.

There, I have wasted 5mins of my life now.  Like I said, with the 06z now running out, this will all soon be out of date.  

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, Alexis said:

Things looking a couple of hundred miles further west on the 6z so far.

Couple a hundred miles further east in the atlantic now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
4 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Things looking a couple of hundred miles further west on the 6z so far.

My eyes are not what they were ..whats a couple of hundred miles west ?

GFS 6z

Netweather GFS Image

GFS0Z

Netweather GFS Image

 

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Before anyone gets the hump, I don't live in Kent but if I did I would be considering "crushing a grape" for the younger members its excitement:D

IMG_0474.PNG

IMG_0475.PNG

Well i do live in kent

And we have lovely wet pavements..

After a few sleety showers. Temp at 2c..

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 6z..highlighting why the ens may look vastly different north-2-south.

London/Aberdeen!

Edit;..

A continued drop down to be expected 4 the london ones!!!

MT8_London_ens (5).png

Screenshot_2018-02-04-09-57-54.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
8 minutes ago, stewfox said:

My eyes are not what they were ..whats a couple of hundred miles west ?

GFS 6z

Netweather GFS Image

GFS0Z

Netweather GFS Image

 

Sorry, I meant the lower 850s are further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Quite a rain - heavy snow event for Northern Ireland & Scotland on this Op run, for 8th/9th Feb.

Tuesdays front disintegrating in a similar place as before though;

54-574UK.thumb.gif.5fd9fd236db01b4eb5ecf640a2000305.gif

57-574UK.thumb.gif.ed4abb2dab841561fccad2575ba1e7ef.gif

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Someone seriously need a word with the highways agency about-doing away with the M4-????

gfs-1-132.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Trough formation on the front even sharper on this run. On a par with ECM 00z but without such a wide wedge of milder air along the front.

Have noticed more of a trough to our south as another trend. GFS 00z actually has it strong enough to bring higher 850s around from the SE but the surface flow remained cold.

The way the -5*C 850s didn’t clear the far SE on days 5-6 if the 00z ECM caught my eye as it shows the power of LP formation on the southern reaches of the front for halting the eastward progression at least in S UK. Ideally it would become strong enough to back the front west again but that might be asking a bit too much, we’ll see.

 

So 06z GFS has that low too stretched out for S parts but it works out pretty well for C parts. Not a fair run then from a who needs it most perspective but what can you do.

Funny how it’s the American model that’s behaving most in tune with the UK Met Office’s forecasting. UKMO and ECM models comparatively ‘blunt’ in their solutions, the former with the weak  attempt at frontal LP formation and the latter with the overly broad Atlantic troughs at the weekend. I say this relative to the Met Office forecasting; too soon to have a strong idea whether that forecast might trip up or not (I.e. I’m not ruling out UKMO and ECM models).

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 6z..highlighting why the ens may look vastly different north-2-south.

London/Aberdeen!

Edit;..

A continued drop down to be expected 4 the london ones!!!

MT8_London_ens (5).png

Screenshot_2018-02-04-09-57-54.png

 

gfs-1-174.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Doesn't Steve always say the 06z is the most progressive of the GFS runs?

Anyway, looks good in the short range and I feel pretty confident we will see improved trough disruption through the mid term than the 06z op shows here.

Not just gut, the models are only really sniffing the split energy out within 120hrs. I'm going to say this run is as flat as we will see and tempted to say bin it, but I've been wrong before. :D

gfsnh-0-144.png?6

 

 

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Doesn't Steve always say the 06z is the most progressive of the GFS runs?

Anyway, looks good in the short range and I feel pretty confident we will see improved trough disruption through the mid term than the 06z op shows here.

Not just gut, the models are only really sniffing the split energy out within 120hrs. I'm going to say this run is as flat as we will see and tempted to say bin it, but I've been wrong before. :D

gfsnh-0-144.png?6

 

 

 

 

6z is the notorious progression run.

And looks 2 be on its evo- this morning!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Every run after t144 should be binned at the moment,so much to be resolved,wouldn’t be surprised to see full blown Easterly develop again by next weekend.

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Every run after t144 should be binned at the moment,so much to be resolved,wouldn’t be surprised to see full blown Easterly develop again by next weekend.

 

Thats a definite-possibility)..easterly reformed incursion

gfs-1-240.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The extended clusters are pretty useless this morning, showing just the one

however, not surprisingly it fits nicely with the jet chart I showed earlier

78A3846D-8723-4ED9-B5D8-95E1C051F797.thumb.jpeg.6110d878d9407e7096e949c4e19c6a02.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 hour ago, Chevron12345 said:

Please can you correct me regarding the upper air temps at the times I posted - in regard to the GFS 00z today.

and just to add not everyone can fork out for netweather extra.

There you go, the free version of the GFS viewer, enjoy :D 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

The GFS 6z ends up very blocky to the north east from around day 11 all the way to the end . IMG_1240.thumb.PNG.8c77924d57f8bbe8eb59ee8927624d23.PNGIMG_1241.thumb.PNG.f5a88ae13f05c5529c1d5c3cdebcbc20.PNGIMG_1242.thumb.PNG.0648e828570612a34894570155ab042a.PNGIMG_1243.thumb.PNG.e1fa29726118bfb83c02617ef095b7dc.PNG

I would of thought there will be some cracking runs in GEFS suit when they come out . Well when you have a warming like this , some cracking charts should start showing ?IMG_1239.thumb.PNG.b009cd802a1f004f679543727e4bc4e7.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Fi gfs resembling the forecast upper strat profile as week 2 progresses 

question is how mobile things actually get prior to this solution (assuming you accept this is a feasible direction of travel for mid month ) 

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