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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
11 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Exactly@karlos..

Scatter-highlights uncertainty!.

Also the operational divergance!.

Block formation being underestimated,  although a zonal pattern looks incoming (for a lim-period)..and frontal push against the cold 'in place screams precip-transition, of the wintery type.

Also AGAIN is the inflow of an easterly type...that indeed has a reverse mobile link..in regards to snow potential; and nowcast forecast for eastern/south eastern parts....

The colder trend continues!!!

Expect the drop down..with clustering in the colder variety-via mass members...

Extention of colder graphics,...6z-12z suites.

MT8_London_ens (5).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
2 hours ago, CK1981 said:

Many twists and turns to come...

what im seeing  its looking great this  week even in to fantasy  world  forsome decent winter weather!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just another point about the Gfs 00z, it really fits with the MO updates for atlantic fronts to push up against the cold block and stall across the uk with potentially significant / substantial snowfall amounts as cold air remains in situ.:):cold:

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

 

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just another point about the Gfs 00z, it really fits with the MO updates for atlantic fronts to push up against the cold block and stall across the uk with potentially significant / substantial snowfall amounts as cold air remains in situ.:):cold:

Well at 96hrs GFS the SE is barely holding on to any -5 air. What 2m temperatures will be or what -5 air equates too, I presume is certainly no where near freezing during the day, maybe 4-7?

At 108 only a small finger of the UK under -5's but the majority under 'milder' upper air. Then Atlantic Air at -5 uppers looks like bringing a wash out/slush fest with more snowy conditions up over much higher ground.

and at 144 a mess of uppers barely at -5 except for Scotland.

Then the Atlantic again through the later stages as per today's model at 108.

I'm not seeing any surface cold with temperatures near freezing or ice days. I'm not seeing any good snowfall days between now and end of week, unless at elevation. I'm seeing a very watered down version of the charts shown last Wednesday.

Lot's of talk about the SSW must be now influencing our tiny tiny island and therefore pushing back the Atlantic - Really?

All talk is now about Thursday onward. Just normal winter fare this week.

Edited by Chevron12345
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Be interesting to see if the current Azores ridge thrown at day 7 proves to be the last as the Atlantic trough extension from the vortex adjusts further and further sw. In fact, be even more interesting to see how that ridge actually verifies given the corrections we are seeing against the cold air.

Slowly but surely the mean trough is edging further sw as the blocking to the ne strengthens throughout week 2

BUT, with an SSW around the 12th Feb, we really have no idea what affects that will have on the reliability of the nwp. Of course the models will be showing it in their runs and therefore factoring it in but the likelihood that they get it right isn’t great.  

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

 

I'm seeing a very watered down version of the charts shown last Wednesday.

 

Did no one give you a copy of the terms and conditions when you started looking at models ? 

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
9 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

 

Well at 96hrs GFS the SE is barely holding on to any -5 air. What 2m temperatures will be or what -5 air equates too, I presume is certainly no where near freezing during the day, maybe 4-7?

At 108 only a small finger of the UK under -5's but the majority under 'milder' upper air. Then Atlantic Air at -5 uppers looks like bringing a wash out/slush fest with more snowy conditions up over much higher ground.

and at 144 a mess of uppers barely at -5 except for Scotland.

Then the Atlantic again through the later stages as per today's model at 108.

I'm not seeing any surface cold with temperatures near freezing or ice days. I'm not seeing any good snowfall days between now and end of week, unless at elevation. I'm seeing a very watered down version of the charts shown last Wednesday.

Lot's of talk about the SSW must be now influencing our tiny tiny island and therefore pushing back the Atlantic - Really?

All talk is now about Thursday onward. Just normal winter fare this week.

 

9 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

 

Well at 96hrs GFS the SE is barely holding on to any -5 air. What 2m temperatures will be or what -5 air equates too, I presume is certainly no where near freezing during the day, maybe 4-7?

At 108 only a small finger of the UK under -5's but the majority under 'milder' upper air. Then Atlantic Air at -5 uppers looks like bringing a wash out/slush fest with more snowy conditions up over much higher ground.

and at 144 a mess of uppers barely at -5 except for Scotland.

Then the Atlantic again through the later stages as per today's model at 108.

I'm not seeing any surface cold with temperatures near freezing or ice days. I'm not seeing any good snowfall days between now and end of week, unless at elevation. I'm seeing a very watered down version of the charts shown last Wednesday.

Lot's of talk about the SSW must be now influencing our tiny tiny island and therefore pushing back the Atlantic - Really?

All talk is now about Thursday onward. Just normal winter fare this week.

Your basing, your views on one set of suites- 00z..

Revert to my former post!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking through this morning's outputs at UKMO extended's range NAVGEM is the closest to it with rain moving into the west whether we'd see snow from it will obviously depend on if cold enough air was in place

ukm2.2018021100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.fc6d8336bf7fd8a263592dfc4ce1c893.pngecm2.2018021100_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.192b138243b6c582757d2c14a7575772.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
25 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just another point about the Gfs 00z, it really fits with the MO updates for atlantic fronts to push up against the cold block and stall across the uk with potentially significant / substantial snowfall amounts as cold air remains in situ.:):cold:

 

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

Your basing, your views on one set of suites- 00z..

Revert to my former post!!!!

Indeed I am, in reply to Frosty about the GFS 00z today...Your correct.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I have no idea why you misquote the 850 mb predicted temperatures for England and Wales out to Thursday, but I do object to plain mistruths, from whatever side of the cold debate.

For those who think this comment is a touch strong click on the link below and if I am wrong please say so.

Judge for yourselves on the link below from the 00z GFS run.

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=a5d5ff87f77df7f58448d516ff06ea54

Please can you correct me regarding the upper air temps at the times I posted - in regard to the GFS 00z today.

and just to add not everyone can fork out for netweather extra.

Edited by Chevron12345
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Chevron12345 said:

 

Indeed I am, in reply to Frosty about the GFS 00z today...Your correct.

I thought the Gfs 00z was a very good run with the eastern cold block advancing westwards again..and I'm not alone in saying that either..hope it's the trend!:)

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

 

Indeed I am, in reply to Frosty about the GFS 00z today...Your correct.

Your views for that suite.. come across as- thats where things end' And we need to take that particular set' as the end of modeling..with no contrast or variation!!!

The beauty of the weather world is to expect- dramatics in variations...and some cant see the wood...for the trees atm!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Don't get me wrong folks about my post above I have never really believed in a deep cold persistent flow from northern Europe/Scandinavia. Short term as we are in or getting over the next 12-18 hours, and for another 48-72 hours. But the overall upper air pattern shows the flow from a westerly not easterly direction. It always has at 500 mb. The area around the UK has been, as can be seen on UK Fax charts, as at the cross roads if you like of that change over from west to east. The air is pretty cold from the westerly side. The ECMWF-GFS 500 mb anomoaly charts show the air originating from northern Canada. NOAA shows it from around the Gt Lakes area so some degree of variation on how cold the air will be after it has travelled across the Atlantic. But cold not mild is the pattern for 6-14 days. Beyond that I never have pretended to be able to give sensible guidance.

The anomaly charts are 'mean' charts so on any individual day the actual 500 mb flow may diverge somewhat from that shown but not for any prolonged period.

Usual links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
7 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Please can you correct me regarding the upper air temps at the times I posted - in regard to the GFS 00z today.

and just to add not everyone can fork out for netweather extra.

 

Edited by johnholmes
incorrect information given, see post below
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Your views for that suite.. come across as- thats where things end'as un we need to take that particular set' as the end of modeling..with no contrast or variation!!!

The beauty of the weather world is to expect- dramatics in variations...and some cant see the wood...for the trees atm!

I was just commenting on what the GFS 00 was showing...the operational run (if that's what you call it). That's all.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
8 minutes ago, lewis clark said:

YIts so contradicting in here one says one thing another the oposite its so confusing sometimes. 

I would disagree Id say most of the time

GFS 06Z rolling out 

Pic as is now seen worst

Netweather GFS Image

 

 

Edited by stewfox
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Please can you correct me regarding the upper air temps at the times I posted - in regard to the GFS 00z today.

and just to add not everyone can fork out for netweather extra.

Would you like me to lend you the doe£££..

Then perhaps your views won't be so pessimistic!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

To chevron

I do apologise, I am so used to using Extra, you are correct it is the Extra version I was using

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

I thought groundhog day was last week:wink:

 

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Would you like me to lend you the doe£££..

Then perhaps your views won't be so pessimistic!

? Its not about being pessimistic...i just commented mainly of what upper air temps were for the particular points in time, 96, 108, 144. I'm sure I have them correct as per my post. I will keep quiet now and take a back seat.

Edited by Chevron12345
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