Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Mucka]

Here are the last 4 ensemble mean charts for GFS at day 8 (Yesterday's 06z first - today's 00z last)

A very clear, and very nice, trend from GFS at least.

 

00z ensemble suite noteworthy for the flattening of the "mild" blips on the 8th and 11th (reflecting how the Atlantic is struggling to get in)

 

That's plenty enough positivity from me this morning, over to the rest of the forum. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Mucka

[Mucka]

Actually above were last 4 Op runs but they did the job

Here is a mean comparison showing the same Westward correction over the last 24 hours. Also note the disruption SE coming into play in the first image.

Today/yesterday

Edited February 4, 2018 by Mucka

[That ECM]

Many times we see one model e.g. Gfs backing west but the others carry on with what they have been showing. On this occasion all have been backing west and it's not one model verses another. This has happened again this morning. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by That ECM

[SMU]

Not quite as acute as GFS but bye bye Atlantic -

[CK1981]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not quite as acute as GFS but bye bye Atlantic -

Looks awful thereafter with mild uppers covering most of the U.K. at 168.

Edited February 4, 2018 by CK1981

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Looks awful thereafter with mild uppers covering the U.K. at 168.

But look what they are dragging round from the ne. View on nh profile. It's all getting a bit exciting!! Correct these charts a little further west!! Remembering t168/192 is along time in weather. Compare the westerly correction we have seen over the past 24 hours. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by That ECM

[CK1981]

Just now, That ECM said:

But look what they are dragging round from the ne. View on nh profile. It's all getting a bit exciting!!

Many twists and turns to come...

[January Snowstorm]

20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not quite as acute as GFS but bye bye Atlantic -

I don't see this at all

The Atlantic looks to be winning hands down but brings with it some very cold uppers conductive to snow at times.

Some constantly look East when there's actually more interest out West

[Rayth]

The two mild spikes the GFS had been showing for next week have been steadily getting flattened in the GEFS resulting in the mild fingers being squeezed  as we enter higher resolution time , @ T168 plenty time for this to happen again , yet it doesn’t last long anyway on this ECM run 

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I don't see this at all

The Atlantic looks to be winning hands down but brings with it some very cold uppers conductive to snow at times.

Some constantly look East when there's actually more interest out West

Looking back at the output from a couple of days ago and comparing it today's, would you say the Atlantic has more or less influence now? If you take the output at face value then I can see where your coming. We will see in due course. 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues to show a cold outlook, Be it West or East. An interesting feature to watch over coming runs is the deep low tracking N/E over Iceland at around 240hr. This could dictate if we get a possible very cold Easterly type flow.

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[SMU]

22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I don't see this at all

The Atlantic looks to be winning hands down but brings with it some very cold uppers conductive to snow at times.

Some constantly look East when there's actually more interest out West

The Atlantic has been moved back by the Models since 18z yesterday - go with the trend & movement -IE west.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

54 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I don't see this at all

The Atlantic looks to be winning hands down but brings with it some very cold uppers conductive to snow at times.

Some constantly look East when there's actually more interest out West

This mornings model output.

ECM - Atlantic breaks through at day 7

GFS - Won't post any charts because the Atlantic doesn't break through during the next ten days.

The GEM does get the front next weekend across the UK but then peters out in the north sea with heights building to our east with the Atlantic struggling to gain influence.

The point is that most operationals show a breakdown to westerlies to be a real struggle with a wintry mix on the fronts which do come in from the west and become slow moving. Given that the models having been consistently correcting westwards with Thursdays weather system then the prognosis of the fronts at the weekend could clear the UK eastwards is a little optimistic for those who want PM west/north westerlies.

That said I must say I am disappointed at the near term trends where the depth of cold from both the east and north behind these slow moving fronts have tended to be mixed out somewhat.

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[KTtom]

As much as I would love a Greenie high, I have to agree with Steve on  this one...This gfs chart for next Tuesday shows the Atlantic is retreating, the whole pattern moving west including some very cold uppers (ecm similar synoptically).  Get a feeling the eastely saga is only just beginning..?

 

[Tom Quintavalle]

Growing trend from the models this morning, for the Siberian high, to really start to flex it's muscles, towards the end of this week.

Regards,

Tom.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z screams wintry potential as the very cold block starts pushing westwards  again and there are some large snowfalls on this run too!..speaking of snow, wintry showers in the e / se  today turning more to snow tonight with the SE  in particular likely to see a covering of snow overnight and tomorrow morning..you guys deserve it!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[Chesil View]

As ever looking beyond 144 on the nwp is pretty much a waste of time. However in the reliable timeframe the theme is as Mr Murr has stated,a backing west again of the general pattern. Interesting that at the end of the reliable time frame we just see the Siberian start to flex its muscles. Pretty much in line with the Meto longer range and Glosea. Interesting times ahead. Just the first phase of February cold this week because there,s plenty more to come after that.

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[snowblizzard]

Most models showing pretty cold conditions over UK for the foreseeable with warm sectors being narrowed-down but they will still take effect.

Such a pity that UK temperatures always seem to be just that little bit too high to guarantee snow in these set-ups.

Wouldn't it be great if the UK average was just 5c lower in general so today the temperature in SE would be close to or just below freezing!

Dream on.

Edited February 4, 2018 by snowblizzard

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

10 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

Yup. 18z GFS less progressive on Tuesdays front too, killing it off faster than previous runs

Some decent snow for N England, Wales & SW England though before it fizzles out on those charts also another area of snow (some heavy) across Ireland & W Scotland 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Draig Goch

[Met4Cast]

Very, very good 0z GFS. Heights building more towards Scandi, much less Atlantic influence.

Almost a rinse & repeat of the current pattern, really. The ECM/UKMO not quite as good but they both have the trend early doors with pushing back the Atlantic. Ignore FI, look for subtle upgrades in the short term, that'll lead to larger changes down the road.

With the highly amplified MJO burst and the possibility of a SSW, assuming we can see almost an immediate trop response and the cold manages to keep the Atlantic at bay next weekend as per the GFS, we do stand the chance of possibly not seeing a break down at all. Though that remains a slim chance, for now..

[AWD]

WRF NMM, regarding Tuesdays front;

[Rayth]

I find it interesting that yesterday’s ecm 12z was showing 51/51 members heading towards +ve GPH/MSLP rises over Scandinavia by d13/14. maybe that’s where the GFS 00z OP was sniffing out ?? 

[northwestsnow]

Well despite my earlier moan the EC mean, to me at least, looks pretty decent,by day 10 the jet is sinking SE and there are hints that heights to the NE maybe helping coldies out..:)

[A.J]

45 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 00z screams wintry potential as the very cold block starts pushing westwards  again and there are some large snowfalls on this run too!..speaking of snow, wintry showers in the e / se  today turning more to snow tonight with the SE  in particular likely to see a covering of snow overnight and tomorrow morning..you guys deserve it!!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

stuff the SE, it's the South West that truly deserve it...lol................anyhoos, cool/cold is the theme for the following week with snow/wintyr mix at times for north western and south eastern parts with the spine of England staying relatively dry based on the overnight GFS run.....After that, who knows?

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

No change in the forecast across SW UK this morning. It still looks as though the coldest day will be Tuesday, although now looking drier for many as the front dies out before reaching us and the mildest days could be Thursday & Saturday but with some wind & rain. On the plus side, there should be some decent amounts of sunshine around at times next week which is good news after such a wet January  

Edited February 4, 2018 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts