Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm fascinated by the 474 dam line over Canada. Not seen that before!

Should help the pm shots have some extra zing as the bitterly cold air is ejected out of canada..could be lots to look forward to in terms of cold / snow opportunities during the coming weeks.:):cold:

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Anyway last one on this particular south east snow potential..

And steve murr will be the 1- for streamer exactions..

But the finger of death occurs when any backing of precip gets into the estuary..and precip explosion then forms as it make headway inland!!!!

Lets keep focused now!!

Edited by tight isobar
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm fascinated by the 474 dam line over Canada. Not seen that before!

Well spotted:shok: initially I had some difficultly finding it. Is 510 dam line ahead of the occlusion here? That is is very infrequent you don’t see that on an average winter a long stretch of them typically. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All! Looking at the North Atlantic Profile Hudson Bay in North America, may well be entombed forever in ice. Secondly , Ive never seen so much cold coming from the West. Probably uncharterd terriotory ,,,,,, A very strong jet stream from North America Buckling but why? Is that due to solar/lunar activity? A Forecasters nightmare in the days ahead...:cold: But plenty of Snow for some!!!

hudson bay.png

hudson bayx.png

hudson bayxx.png

hudson bayxxx.png

post-3489-0-21491500-1444059784_thumb.gif

tumblr_nfjlxiKuGS1t1nar6o1_500.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

GFS sea surface temperature anomaly. I would say from this that the majority of the North Sea off the east coast of mainland UK is slightly warmer than average which will allow for some unstable conditions giving heavier snow showers in a E to NE wind. 

Screen Shot 2018-02-02 at 20.57.57.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Ah well. The GFS is showing zonal weather at 384hrs so we may as well just bin this entire cold spell.

Zonal.thumb.png.30cb1d9eb84b4238a404ff90a0b951a4.png

I mean. What use is having the coldest air over the UK and lots of snow potential for just about an entire week when the models way out in FI show a return to milder conditions? May as well just not bother with having the cold and snow potential. 

Honestly, people in here are very quick to moan about a chart that's literally a week away and completely dismiss the cold spell that's actually here, starting this weekend. 

The models are often progressive. Will the milder air return? Yes, eventually. So why not just enjoy what we have right now?

Wait., whats that on the ensembles?

GFS.thumb.png.acd3bd7949f5ac3493779a001b27439b.png

By golly, is that an ensemble mean below freezing for the ENTIRE run? Yep.  Is that 6+ days of the mean below -5c? Yep.

Is that a LOT of scatter in the long range with actually, more ensembles prolonging the cold than going mild? Yep.

But, you know, bin the entire cold spell and moan about whats on offer, just because..

Edited by KentishDan
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Whilst the eps are subtly different days 9/11 with the incoming Atlantic trough on a flatter trajectory, in the extended they remain broadly similar to previous though still with a bit less depth to the euro troughing (and not quite as cold). Note that the mean jet remains to our sw on a nw/se axis and at day 15, the probability of the Russian ridge pushing west into scandi increases - assume that fits with the potential post mid month as has been trailed by glosea 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still cold with very mild air way out west but sourced nearer from E seaboard rather than Greenland and Iceland with rain rather than snow - doesn't tie in with BBC location forecasts for my area - they have snow fri sat but they haven't been updated since lunchtime.

Far too much detail at this range imo 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
2 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

GFS sea surface temperature anomaly. I would say from this that the majority of the North Sea off the east coast of mainland UK is slightly warmer than average which will allow for some unstable conditions giving heavier snow showers in a E to NE wind. 

Screen Shot 2018-02-02 at 20.57.57.png

hi mate, they are just above average in the north sea, which as you say, could help create instability. elsewhere they are around average and the cold air coming across the atlantic should serve to cool sst's further. they are not anywhere however, (even in the warmer areas) warm enough to moderate the incoming cold air as some might have us believe.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, bluearmy said:

Far too much detail at this range imo 

Avery's forecast must be based on what you said about flatter atlantic on eps although the way he worded it suggests timing difference there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

hi mate, they are just above average in the north sea, which as you say, could help create instability. elsewhere they are around average and the cold air coming across the atlantic should serve to cool sst's further. they are not anywhere however, (even in the warmer areas) warm enough to moderate the incoming cold air as some might have us believe.

The ECM forecast for ssts.

ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_sst_anom_2018020100_

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well then...it's about time for the GFS 18Z to trickle out. So, what'll it be eh? Buckets of snow at T+120? Drizzle at 144? Or - rattles and sticklebricks all over the floor, from T+168??

Eyes down! Punching Clowns at the ready...:D

Think I’ll be reaching for a bucket of Vodka in a minute, perhaps it will help me “see the wood for the trees” because it’s currently crazy in ere like!

Anyway ICON watch!

Front moving in. A line from SW England to the NE, doesn’t look to lively mind 

EE00566F-EEA6-4582-B2B1-806791489F39.thumb.png.f64c45ba20e3943548bf450a13d538f0.png

 

Edited by karlos1983
Typo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Once again can we please only post what the Model Outputs are showing. If your post is missing it's because it doesn't belong in here.

Thanks.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Won’t be based on the eps. Too soon. It maybe showing on mogreps but the 9-55 forecast is the most recently recorded? 

Yes - your right - didn't think of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BROADSCALE PATTERN CHANGES REPORT - PART 3:  EURASIA TEMPERATURE AND SNOW COVER ANALYSIS + UK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

I have just posted part 3 of my long report onto the Teleconnections Learning Thread. This includes an extensive section covering analysis of current and forecast Eurasian surface and 850 temperatures as well as a report on Asian snow cover extent and an update on British sea surface temperatures. All of these are important in relation to the easterly spell we are likely to see from mid-February following the upcoming cold spell which may or may not be interrupted by a brief milder interlude. So, I thought that those of you who are interested in this as well as the regular readers of my long reports might like to take a look at it. It is on page 5 (see link below). You will also find higher up on the same page,  Part 2 (Arctic sea ice extent and temperatures, sea surface temperatures up there and a thorough northern hemisphere surface and 850 temperature profiles and analysis) and Part 1 (including an analysis of the now favourable background signals for a prolonged cold spell and a cross-model analysis of the jet stream). In part 1, I also explain why I'm posting on the learning thread rather than on the MOD. While you're over there, why not take a look at some of the fascinating and varied posts on the thread. Here's the link:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89161-learning-about-teleconnection-science-and-background-signals/?page=5

Alternatively, just click on the chart below:

 

Edited by Guest
Correct typos
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Just now, Bobafet said:

Or perhaps people could moderate themselves?? The Mods have a tough enough job as it is I imagine!

 

Please take note, Thanks.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters :good:

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Edited by Draig Goch
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

More seriously on the 18z though..... Tuesday's mild sector a smidgen wider but the east flow ahead of it looks a smidgen stronger (straighter isobars). Wintry flurries widely towards the east/south east. Heavier snow showers in prone spots.

Meanwhile, the ICON 18z again has the front pushing well across the UK, bringing snow. Mostly light though.

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
11 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Please take note, Thanks.

It's worth saying that there has been a lot of off topic/bickering posts tonight that have been deleted. That is a lot of hard work for the mods. If you find that your post has disappeared, then consider this, it is likely that your ability to post in the future will disappear too. So who wants their ability to post removed with the coldest spell of winter arriving........?

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters :good:

image.jpeg

 

image.jpeg

And it looks like it's that Pembrokeshire Dangler which will bring the heaviest precipitation when comparing the total accumulated precip chart with the convective precip chart 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Just tried to get some info of Fergie on twitter as at one o'clock today I was sitting in work wondering what could go wrong after reading the met update from today and musings on twitter. It seemed we were actually going to be lucky for once. (ignoring the cold from the east and chances of snow) I was hoping to  see the block continue to grow in strength with the cold in situ. 

Looks like for the time being the atlantic is going to gain the slight upper hand but with the MJO moving into phase 8 and the SSW all but being confirmed by Glosea and other models, how long until we start to see more amplication. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
20 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Western coasts of the U.K. & Ireland look like getting the most precipitation next week but that will probably be a combination of rain, sleet, snow & hail. Tuesday night into Wednesday could be the best chance of seeing snow in the west, however it's possible to see a further mix of frequent heavy rain, sleet, snow or hail showers with a risk of thunder on Wednesday evening into Thursday across W Wales, N Devon & Cornwall as a "Pembrokeshire Dangler" develops so plenty of potential in what's been a snow starved west for the last several winters :good:

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

I would say that going off the first chart, those of us in Kent away from the coast would be best placed for a decent fall of nice 'dry' snow. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...