Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It hasn’t been massively over hyped though I think that’s a figure of your imagination! I don’t quite understand some people’s takes, and from your IMBY perspective it doesn’t look so good, but for those of us in the southeast who have seen sod all for five years, it’s the best stab of things we have had in a long time! Perhaps that says a lot there’s still a lot of margin of error, it will turn very cold especially across the S/E. There will be snow about not slushy wet PM nonsense, that is therefore decent in my eyes. Too early to say this or that is going to happen none of us truly know, we could wake up to good 00z suite.

People have been ramping Tuesday as something special, IMBY as I keep on saying has nothing to do with it as ive said many a time I prefer potent Easterlies to these battlegrounds, I will probably see moore snow than you by Tuesday evening so how can it be IMBY, all anywhere in the SE will see by Tuesday are dustings and one inchers.

[Alexis]

18 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I'm sorry but I am going to say it, it is model related and it's been bugging me...

The huge issue I have with people using Meteociel charts over wetter is that they vastly over contrast the 850 hPa colours. They make cold look extreme and warm, hot. I'm not a huge fan of the 850's myself, but when I look at them I only ever use the much more (IMO) balanced, wetter charts.

There isn’t enough contrast between -5 to -8 though on WZ. In my experience -8 is needed for snow most of the time and Meteociel has a fresh shade of blue for that. On WZ it’s so hard to see the -8 line.

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

forget the first chart, can't delete it.

 

look at the others and you will see that the least progressive is the fax chart. That'll be the one with professional input. 

Fax chart shows the front further east than the ECM, as far as I can see? A good chart. Snow quite widely, I would think.

[sawan]

Back to the models, there is still plenty to look forward to, there is only one mild sector appearing and I am sure there will be a reload. Come on guys cheer up  

Edited February 2, 2018 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[claret047]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

It is going to get colder and experience tells us that we ALWAYS  try to shift the block of cold air too quickly. It used to be just the same prior to models arriving. Just a time difference, then all we could do was forecast 24, at a pich 48 hours, ahead. Now the models give outlooks days ahead.

Good evening John and other posters.

I am old enough to remember the winter of 1962/63. Each evening at 17.55 I would sit listening to the weather forecast on what was then the Home Service and the outlook was always milder air spreading from the west, but it never arrived.

Looking at the charts to the best of my limited ability I am not confident that the Atlantic will win out but we are set for a significant and quite long cold spell, hopefully with some snow.

Kind regards

Dave

[igloo]

23 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Ian Ferguson on BBC Points West just now suggesting Tuesday into Wednesday will be the peak of the cold snap. Not looking good.

I think you could well be right on that the models are saying the same thing many people will be very frustrated come wednesday evening i fear because they missed out sadly but on a plus note if we can keep on the northern side of the jet northern areas could well get a few falls of snow as -6 uppers is more than enough  for me and a few million who stay in scotland

Edited February 2, 2018 by igloo

[blizzard81]

I would like to hear the views of Catacol after those 12z runs. They go completely opposite to what he was expecting, especially with the Azores high. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, sawan said:

Back to the models, there is still plenty to look forward to, there is only one mild sector appearing and I am sure there will be a reload. Come on guys cheer up  

It’s always those pesky mild sectors which have scuppered the cold during the last few years.

[Chesil View]

Just to try and put a little perspective into the mix. Perhaps we should remember that the models have been upgrading on practically every run since tuesday. So in that respect a wobble at some point was to be expected. It is also worth bearing in mind that with Meto medium and longterm forecast very much on the wintry side which is not domething they normally do unless very confident. Perhaps we should look at next week as purely phase one of what could go on to be a very memorable spell of weather.

I appreciate that this is the model thread but getting hung up on each individual op run is crazy and exhausting. Really much better to view all ens before making knee jerk reactions and calling no snow in where ever your bsck yard happens to be. February looks like being a very interesting month why not just enjoy it.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is actually wintry for most of its duration with frosts, ice and snow featuring at times..and that goes for the Gfs 12z too which has one of the snowiest low res that I've ever seen ...it's all much more interesting than the Meh last few weeks!!

[Methuselah]

How on earth can a humble computer model 'scupper' the weather? The weather will do what the weather will do...it couldn't give a toss as to what we want it to do?

[blizzard81]

I personally think that weather models (like most models) are attention seekers. Let's face it. Throwing in a less cold suite will probably attract more viewers for the next set of runs in the hope of seeing things upgrade again. Think of it as playing hard to get

[Polar Maritime]

If your post is missing it's because it should not belong in here. Please consider what you are typing as it may well belong in another thread or via pm.

Thanks.

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

The dreaded warm sector.

JMA, UKMO, GFS, ECM. ICON

Plenty of wiggle room between rain or snow event.

[comet]

Berlin strat charts already showing a split at 100mb t240 therefore what we may be seeing in the trop is a transferal of energy from west to east or in other words the strat forcing temporarily interfering with our cold pattern until thing become realigned and we see major heights building north unleashing a very cold (perhaps bitterly cold) second half to February and then on into March.

Never the less a interesting week coming up.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has pressure building up from the south-west sending lows north of Scotland precipitation gradually fizzling out as the high gets closer

[Singularity]

Some on here seem to have this mentality that downgrading runs are automatically more likely to be correct than upgrading ones. I get that we've been let down a lot over the past few winters, but when the teleconnections support the more satisfactory outcome it's better to view the downgrading runs with more suspicion.

Generally for the 6-7 day range, I look for 3 runs in a row supporting a solution contrary to the forcing from teleconnections before it becomes a serious contender for the real outcome, and 2 in a row for a solution that is in line with said forcing.

So tomorrow will be a big day in terms of what the runs get up to with respect to next Thursday. It feels like if ever we shouldn't have these questioning runs, it's with so much gunning in our favour, but this is the UK after all, a thin slice of land on the eastern flank of a vast body of well-above freezing water. It takes a lot for us to 'win' (but should it really be this much, I wonder?).

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The dreaded warm sector.

JMA, UKMO, GFS, ECM. ICON

Plenty of wiggle room between rain or snow event.

Mmm, they do have a knack of finding the UK don't they? 

[Mike Poole]

33 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I'm sorry but I am going to say it, it is model related and it's been bugging me...

The huge issue I have with people using Meteociel charts over wetter is that they vastly over contrast the 850 hPa colours. They make cold look extreme and warm, hot. I'm not a huge fan of the 850's myself, but when I look at them I only ever use the much more (IMO) balanced, wetter charts.

Everyone to his/her own, of course.

But the reason I prefer Meteociel charts over all the others is precisely because of the imaginative use of colour.  Most other sites use only pascal shades between green and red or blue and red, by using the whole spectrum of colours it makes the charts much easier to read - if your trying to read them, rather than just looking for extremes.  From following this thread for some years, I've learned that the evolution often depends on quite subtle features in the model output and the Meteoceil charts make these clearer in my opinion.

[john mac]

Like someone posted earlier on. If you’ve got the UKMO on board then your on a winner not to say that it can’t be wrong but in my experience when the UKMO says yes then it’s normally close to the mark. ECM end should be interesting later.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, john mac said:

Like someone posted earlier on. If you’ve got the UKMO on board then your on a winner not to say that it can’t be wrong but in my experience when the UKMO says yes then it’s normally close to the mark. ECM end should be interesting later.

The ecm ens will probably go up in the medium term but if the Meto are on to something we need to see them dip towards the end - circa days 14/15.

[The PIT]

10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Some on here seem to have this mentality that downgrading runs are automatically more likely to be correct than upgrading ones. I get that we've been let down a lot over the past few winters, but when the teleconnections support the more satisfactory outcome it's better to view the downgrading runs with more suspicion.

Generally for the 6-7 day range, I look for 3 runs in a row supporting a solution contrary to the forcing from teleconnections before it becomes a serious contender for the real outcome, and 2 in a row for a solution that is in line with said forcing.

So tomorrow will be a big day in terms of what the runs get up to with respect to next Thursday. It feels like if ever we shouldn't have these questioning runs, it's with so much gunning in our favour, but this is the UK after all, a thin slice of land on the eastern flank of a vast body of well-above freezing water. It takes a lot for us to 'win' (but should it really be this much, I wonder?).

Sadly it's true very rare that anything is upgraded nearer the time. The big example are storms seven days away 70 - 80mph 6 days away 75- 85mph 5 days away 60mph to 70mph 4 days away 55mph to 65mph 3 days away 45mph to 55 mph 2 days away 35mph to 45 mph. That's not including the change of path of the storm which also has a bearing. Too be honest you've got to expect an adjustment seven days out and what you're looking for is for days 4 and 3 day not to show much difference. 

Anyway this cold snap hasn't seen much of change since the models suddenly homed in on it. The only thing that has altered slightly is the intensity of tomorrows front.

The other thing which catches people out is comparing 12oz to 18oz and then 00oz etc. You're best comparing the 12 oz to 12oz from the day before.

Edited February 2, 2018 by The PIT

[karlos1983]

ECM mean vs Op at 144

 

[Daniel*]

Oh what do we have here? T+36 I myself will be watching fax charts closely in the coming days. It’s the best way of having a good idea of precip, and Euro4 is now getting within range. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM mean vs Op at 144

 

Mild sector less mild.