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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

144 cold getting well mixed out via ec-12z!!!!

ECM0-144 (4).gif

It wasn’t worth getting hyped up for anyway, I know it’s a pain. But it is always best to be prepared for issues like this to occur. 

The weather for this week will still be cold regardless! Let’s focus on that and the possible SSW. I’ll await the 18z and 0z suites with interest.

But take everything post Sunday with a pinch of salt if I were you. Surprises will appear yes.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM about to show what I always thought - forget Tuesday, the real fun starts end of next week and beyond.

So basically everything has been pushed forward, as usual?

Still very good potential but I strongly suspect what is now happening is we are entering the realm of model realism where fantasy becomes reality. The reality being something a lot less extreme. 

Like the last few days, not trying to wind anyone up. 

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

168 doesn't look too hopeful for extension of the cold, but it's still holding on (but it's into FI now so will change by the morning anyway!).

ECU0-168.GIF?02-0

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
11 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

It wasn’t worth getting hyped up for anyway, I know it’s a pain. But it is always best to be prepared for issues like this to occur. 

The weather for this week will still be cold regardless! Let’s focus on that and the possible SSW. I’ll await the 18z and 0z suites with interest.

But take everything post Sunday with a pinch of salt if I were you. Surprises will appear yes.

Mate im fully aware..ie post sunday etc .

And dealing with the milder sector will change-vastly-..by then..still cracking synop's...

Although for south east england sun-mon-tues..potential is quite large..

(Please or offend)...

On we go...

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

So basically everything has been pushed forward, as usual?

Still very good potential but I strongly suspect what is now happening is we are entering the realm of model realism where fantasy becomes reality. The reality being something a lot less extreme. 

Like the last few days, not trying to wind anyone up. 

Oh the next 5 days have been massively over hyped but I still wouldn't rule out over the course of the next few weeks, us seeing the most significant cold spell since 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashcott nr Bridgwater
  • Location: Ashcott nr Bridgwater

 I think we have had so many upgrades over the last few days there was know way the models could carry on like that.We now have to sit back and watch ever thing unfold there are going to be disappointing moments and surprises for some I just hope the surprises win this ride.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Mate im fulky aware..ie post sunday etc .

And dealing with the milder sector will change-vastly-..by then..still cracking synop's...

Although for south east england sun-mon-tues..potential is quite large..

(Please or offend)...

On we go...

Indeed we do, good sir. No point in me shuffling the chair though, no one on here would be able to see it.

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
32 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

144 cold getting well mixed out via ec-12z!!!!

ECM0-144 (4).gif

LOL. Somewhat darkly, that has fo be one of the most ridiculous winter charts I’ve ever seen. Talk about pinning the tail on the donkey. Icy uppers all around, none to drop or sink. Who put Another Pint Of Mild in charge of the blue crayons again? 

Edited by supernova
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh the next 5 days have been massively over hyped but I still wouldn't rule out over the course of the next few weeks, us seeing the most significant cold spell since 2010.

It hasn’t been massively over hyped though I think that’s a figure of your imagination! I don’t quite understand some people’s takes, and from your IMBY perspective it doesn’t look so good, but for those of us in the southeast who have seen sod all for five years, it’s the best stab of things we have had in a long time! Perhaps that says a lot there’s still a lot of margin of error, it will turn very cold especially across the S/E. There will be snow about not slushy wet PM nonsense, that is therefore decent in my eyes. Too early to say this or that is going to happen none of us truly know, we could wake up to good 00z suite.

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
1 minute ago, supernova said:

LOL. Somewhat darkly, that has fo be one of the most ridulous winter model charts I’ve ever seen. Talking about pinning the tail on the donkey. Icy uppers all around, none to drop or sink. Who put Another Pint Of Mild in charge of the blue crayons again? 

Sums things up perfectly for the uk that

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Can we please stop the bickering or posts will go missing.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
6 minutes ago, supernova said:

LOL. Somewhat darkly, that has fo be one of the most ridulous winter model charts I’ve ever seen. Talking about pinning the tail on the donkey. Icy uppers all around, none to drop or sink. Who put Another Pint Of Mild in charge of the blue crayons again? 

I'm sorry but I am going to say it, it is model related and it's been bugging me...

The huge issue I have with people using Meteociel charts over wetter is that they vastly over contrast the 850 hPa colours. They make cold look extreme and warm, hot. I'm not a huge fan of the 850's myself, but when I look at them I only ever use the much more (IMO) balanced, wetter charts.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Definitely disappointing output this evening for the mid term onward, no way to spin that, didn't expect such a progressive run from ECM this evening.

That said GFS is progressive within its own ensemble suite and I think it likely ECM will be too.

It depends how much stock we want to put in individual Op runs and whether we consider both ECM and GFS being fast with the Atlantic is coincidence or trend.

We will have to wait for a few more runs before we know.

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24 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

 

Forecast Image

 

Would you like me to mail it to you as well? ;)

I love being right.

Mine was a genuine question, not a dig, anyways as I can see a whole 0.1c worldwide. 

Should make a huge difference.

Anyways, I'll take you up on your email offer, please send it to obnoxiousrobotwannabe@gmail.com 

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Posted
  • Location: BS15 8bx
  • Location: BS15 8bx
Just now, Mucka said:

Definitely disappointing output this evening for the mid term onward, no way to spin that, didn't expect such a progressive run from ECM this evening.

That said GFS is progressive within its own ensemble suite and I think it likely ECM will be too.

It depends how much stock we want to put in individual Op runs and whether we consider both ECM and GFS being fast with the Atlantic is coincidence or trend.

We will have to wait for a few more runs before we know.

Ian Ferguson on BBC Points West just now suggesting Tuesday into Wednesday will be the peak of the cold snap. Not looking good.

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

I'm sorry but I am going to say it, it is model related and it's been bugging me...

The huge issue I have with people using Meteociel charts over wetter is that they vastly over contrast the 850 hPa colours. They make cold look extreme and warm, hot. I'm not a huge fan of the 850's myself, but when I look at them I only ever use the much more (IMO) balanced, wetter charts.

Interesting point. I was just commenting on a chart somebody else posted mind. 

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Posted
  • Location: Donegal
  • Location: Donegal

I think it's a case of waiting until Sunday before writing it off. The last cold spell across the NW, the output went pear shaped on the Friday concerning the LP centre moving through Scotland for the following Wednesday , by Sunday it pushed further south and went through central Ireland that Wednesday . I know it didn't make much difference for those in the south but it made a huge difference for areas of NI and Scotland. There will be more changes, maybe for the better. I'll wait until Sunday before passing judgement. 

Edited by Sneachtastorm
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Ian Ferguson on BBC Points West just now suggesting Tuesday into Wednesday will be the peak of the cold snap. Not looking good.

For the south east..yes.?

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Euro4 has uppers of -10 at 48 hours but has dew points of above freezing across midlands and east!!thicknesses are brilliant aswell!!how is that even possible!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

forget the first chart, can't delete it.

 

look at the others and you will see that the least progressive is the fax chart. That'll be the one with professional input. :D

IMG_0451.PNG

IMG_0452.PNG

IMG_0453.PNG

IMG_0454.PNG

IMG_0455.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Euro4 has uppers of -10 at 48 hours but has dew points of above freezing across midlands and east!!thicknesses are brilliant aswell!!how is that even possible!!

I’ve never seen 850 temps that low with positive dew points . Perhaps it’s an error .

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECM from the 29th. Uppers included on this one too.

ECH1-168.GIF?12ECH0-168.GIF?12 ECH1-192.GIF?12ECH0-192.GIF?12

ECM from today for the same timeframe.

ECH1-72.GIF?02-0ECH1-96.GIF?02-0

Not to say it's not wrong but considering there is a lot of things going on right now the models are going struggle and there is still plenty of things in the 'reliable' timeframe to keep us interested. 

This rollercoaster still has a long way to go. 

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