Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

A sight to behold synopticaly!!!!

?

gfsnh-0-162.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes weirpig ^^ GFS has an easterly flow again at 150...

Expect more improvements towards the ecm this evening steve!!still think that band of snow wont go any further then midlands and then weaken!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Expect more improvements towards the ecm this evening steve!!still think that band of snow wont go any further then midlands and then weaken!!

My thoughts are complete opposite!!

The ppn looks via modeling progression to be pushing further south run-2-run...and pepping up as it progresses!!!

One to eyeball!!!

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

Well finally some proper cold coming in. 

 

Looks to me like potential ice days down here where i live but no snow as high pressure to dominant but hey cant win them all some nice white ice maybe fog making frost thicker freezing fog and ice days. Snow chance down here looks less likely near bath but at least cold looks like hanging about for at least a week though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

That enough for me.  The difference at 180 between the 0z and 6z  is quite a difference.  anything after this really is speculative     so as it stands  cold and snowy   maybe heavy and prolonged for some.   then ???

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
32 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Pretty much as you were.  Snow band Tuesday making ways across uk.

Hello Weirpig,

I trust you are well.

I do not know about model blindness in my case, I just having difficulty in working out the dynamics of them.

Could you please help me. The snow band to which you refer, is it one mentioned earlier that is coming across from the continent or the one coming southeast from the Atlantic?

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, claret047 said:

Hello Weirpig,

I trust you are well.

I do not know about model blindness in my case, I just having difficulty in working out the dynamics of them.

Could you please help me. The snow band to which you refer, is it one mentioned earlier that is coming across from the continent or the one coming southeast from the Atlantic?

Many thanks

Kind Regards

Dave

 

Hi  Dave  

Yes  the approaching fronts from the Atlantic   as they hit the cold air  the bands now appear compared to a few days ago   to be stalling  to me  it could get to a point were the band dosent even make it to wales.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
13 minutes ago, offerman said:

Well finally some proper cold coming in. 

 

Looks to me like potential ice days down here where i live but no snow as high pressure to dominant but hey cant win them all some nice white ice maybe fog making frost thicker freezing fog and ice days. Snow chance down here looks less likely near bath but at least cold looks like hanging about for at least a week though.

I think you might be surprised come next week, looking at the ppn charts as a guide and only a guide we could do pretty well

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfseu-0-240.png?6

So the Atlantic go in and quickly bring n it PM air with a runner. 

Yep @frosty ground the Atlantic does get in but it's not the dreaded s Westlys witch is good , cold pm air and it's quite cold air too . ?

IMG_1216.PNG

IMG_1217.PNG

IMG_1218.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

SSW propagated nicely on 6z - here is the result, only slightly decent chart but these runs will get better in the trop as long as we see similar strat profiles on future runs.

gfsnh-0-372_cbo3.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

And right on Q, the GFS at the end of the run gives us a rinse and repeat but with better amplification.

The pattern is there, it is just nailing the amplification after each atlantic assault.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
7 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Who wants the cold to last right through to end of March then! ?

 

 

Count me in and preferably a white Easter too! Why limit our aspirations to the end of March. :-)

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

And the fire still alight up top ?

IMG_1220.PNG

This is the best split so far!

Does anybody know if the CFS is also seeing a SSW?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

The GEFS perbs are almost universally predicting widespread overnight frost for large parts of the U.K. but especially central England, from the 5th Feb to the 11th Feb.  Can't post them all but this is typical:

image.thumb.png.02709dff2a1058409766f7a64ef9ef2c.png

The coldest night at present looks like it could be the 8th February:

image.thumb.gif.66a156605836dc3b89e9048b15cc3b1c.gif

Do those CET forecasts need revising downwards?

Note to self:  must get around to lagging those pipes...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, karyo said:

This is the best split so far!

Does anybody know if the CFS is also seeing a SSW?

Yep and it keeps getting closer ?. Not sure if CFS is showing it . @feb1991blizzard will know .

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep and it keeps getting closer ?. Not sure if CFS is showing it . @feb1991blizzard will know .

I don't know for a fact but I would say that given those runs that make it cold and E'ly dominated for 6 weeks that its been pumping out lately, its a fair bet.

TBH I'm more bothered that the ECM shows it and the EPS.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
13 minutes ago, karyo said:

This is the best split so far!

Does anybody know if the CFS is also seeing a SSW?

Don't know, but going by this it's on the same page as the GFS:

u10serie.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...