Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[shaky]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

ICON brings the cold in quicker!

There the same buddy

[weirpig]

Just now, shaky said:

There the same buddy

Shaky  you got model Blindness.   Central England is colder on one chart.  it all that blue ;0

[karlos1983]

Just now, shaky said:

There the same buddy

No they really are not? -8 clearing Cornwall on 06z, whereas its across Hampshire on the 00z...

[Purga]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

There the same buddy

One's Monday & the other's Tuesday

[shaky]

Oops my bad guyz!!!soooreh!!!i was just lookin at the top corner and all i seen was 06z run for both!did not look at the dates!!egg on me face?

[weirpig]

Just now, Purga said:

One's Monday & the other's Tuesday

Yes your Right  Model Blindness.     Anyway  awaiting what Gfs does with the approaching band on Tuesday

[bluearmy]

Look for gfs finding the ecm upper trough from the se day 5 

[shaky]

Any changes on gfs??getting nervous now!!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any changes on gfs??getting nervous now!!

Pretty much as you were.  Snow band Tuesday making ways across uk.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Any changes on gfs??getting nervous now!!

Steady as she goes 

[frosty ground]

GFs back the Azores high a bit west compared to the 0z.

[tight isobar]

Gfs 102hrs..ppn banding pushing south across england...all heavy snow...certainly no marginality...

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 102hrs..ppn banding pushing south across england...all heavy snow...certainly no marginality...

Amended

[John Michael How]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Steady as she goes 

Is that a light Thames streamer I see there?

[tight isobar]

Into a northerly-potent- flow @114.

And the motion is on and has second north east/easterly flow written all over it as we gain. And move on !!!

Edited February 2, 2018 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Into a northerly-potent- flow @114.

And the motion is on and has second north east/easterly flow written all over it as we gain. And move on !!!

Incoming- going to be an epic 6z..here

[karyo]

By Tuesday evening the 6z gfs sets up a northwesterly with -10c uppers. If that happens, then I can die happy!

Anyway, the 6z is more amplified than the 0z which is a relief. The UKMO has me a bit concerned this morning but let's hope it will get more amplified this afternoon.

[TEITS]

3 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

Is that a light Thames streamer I see there?

I don't know about a streamer but the model output has suggested Kent may see the snow showers become heavier and more frequent during Sunday night into Monday.

[frosty ground]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Incoming- going to be an epic 6z..here

Excluding the slight correction west it looks the same as the 0z.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

By Tuesday evening the 6z gfs sets up a northwesterly with -10c uppers. If that happens, then I can die happy!

Anyway, the 6z is more amplified than the 0z which is a relief. The UKMO has me a bit concerned this morning but let's hope it will get more amplified this afternoon.

I spotted that it has a look of january 4th 2010 about it, not as cold thou!

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Excluding the slight correction west it looks the same as the 0z.

Given...but its the 6z...the wobbly suite imo- so need compare or upgrade on this operational...and thats what we have...

[weirpig]

At 150  the mild sector is squeezed evn more on the 6z   a upgrade in that regard

Edited February 2, 2018 by weirpig

[frosty ground]

A better angle of attack from the Atlantic, if that front can approach vertically aligned with the UK then that's a recipe for a big snow event. 

[SMU]

Yes weirpig ^^ GFS has an easterly flow again at 150...

[frosty ground]

Greater Disruption

It's also worth noting the difference in the low coming out of Canada.

Edited February 2, 2018 by frosty ground