Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[The Beast From The East]

11 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Great 00z again. 

I don't get it? I'm seeing 2 potentially disruptive snowfall events in the form of fronts, as well as possible snow shower activity in eastern parts. But I'm seeing posts saying there's not going to be much snowfall at all? Am I missing something here? 

I believe that maybe because it looks as though the fronts coming in from the West both for the weekend and again on Tuesday look like stalling over half the country and not making it over to the far East and the SE. Those lucky people under where it stalls will be very happy and good luck to them. I'm not worried as if I'm reading the models correctly then the east and SE will get there share of snow later on into next week... fingers crossed . 

Edited February 2, 2018 by TheBeastFromTheEAST

[MattStoke]

The GFS is progressive with the front and is slow to mix out the mild sector, which does result in little in the way of accumulatng snow.

Pointing that out is not moaning. It's not even saying that is what will happen. It is merely commenting on what that particular update shows, which is the whole point of this forum. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Paul

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

ECM looking like it could be setting up a very decent Friday treat for many. Notice at 96 there's a kink in the 500hpa trough heading out of the Low Countries/France that could give some decent snowfall. -12 uppers knocking on the door also. 

Happy Friday! 

[SMU]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Apparently it's moaning if you comment on what the models are showing on the model output forum. 

The GFS is progressive with the front and is slow to mix out the mild sector, which does result in little in the way of accumulatng snow.

Pointing that out is not moaning. It's not even saying that is what will happen. It is merely commenting on what that particular update shows, which is the whole point of this forum. As usual people jump on anyone saying anything that isn't what they want to happen.

Why don’t you look at the decent models rather than just blindly following the GFS ... UKMO / ECM will have you all snow unless your right on the NW facing coast - which as with any facing coast runs the risk of having cold moderated-

ECM 72 has -11c air in the NW FWIW-

[SMU]

ECM 120

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

The GFS is progressive with the front and is slow to mix out the mild sector, which does result in little in the way of accumulatng snow.

Pointing that out is not moaning. It's not even saying that is what will happen. It is merely commenting on what that particular update shows, which is the whole point of this forum. 

On what the models are showing? 

These will be the most important output as we move through next week. What would be your commentary with regards to this? Looking forward to the updated fax charts. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120

Best of the morning output.

[MattStoke]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Why don’t you look at the decent models rather than just blindly following the GFS ... UKMO / ECM will have you all snow unless your right on the NW facing coast - which as with any facing coast runs the risk of having cold moderated-

ECM 72 has -11c air in the NW FWIW-

Thought I made pretty clear I was just commenting on the latest GFS run. I even said that that doesn't necessarily mean that is what will happen and I said the ECM is different and a middle ground would deliver for many.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Paul

[SMU]

ECM 144 doesn’t have the Atlantic making much impact- looks exactly like the IKON 00z !

[Mucka]

ECM 144 solid wall of cold, no easy breakdown from here. Atlantic stalling.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

7 hours ago, Zephyr said:

Quite a warming event on the 10hPa charts but is it to late to see any effects from this? If it was to happen. Obviously it's out in the realms of FI.

Not really tbh as its only the start of February. We have another 7 weeks or so to go yet before we reach the spring equinox 

[KTtom]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM 144 solid wall of cold, no easy breakdown from here. Atlantic stalling.

Also note the Azores high being displaced further west..

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by KTtom

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 144 doesn’t have the Atlantic making much impact- looks exactly like the IKON 00z !

Except better.

168, under you go.

Edited February 2, 2018 by Mucka

[chris55]

ECM looking much better than GFS on the 00z ops

144, Azore high nicely displaced way out to the west, a much less progressive Atlantic and a nice 'heavy' cold pool out east. The UK very cold, snow showers about and potential for the incoming front to edge in. Lovely  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TEITS]

Surprised at some of the comments this morniing so far.

Here is what the models are actually showing with regards to snowfall potential.

Sunday afternoon snow showers begin to move into Humber down to Kent. The frequency may increase especially in Kent who could wake up to a decent covering Monday morning.

Currently the front on Tues is being predicted to move across all of the country and even reaching the SE. Due to low temps, dewpoints could see some decent snowfall for many.

Wednesday could see a return of snow showers.

[chris55]

WOW what a chart!! Heavy slow moving snowfall for many!!! There would be quite a complex series of fronts over us I would think.

Edited February 2, 2018 by chris55

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

2 hours ago, Mucka said:

Even small changes in the 2/3 day time-frame can make a difference.

GFS 00z has the cold pool to our SE further NW this run, could trigger some shower activity. Thames streamers, I mean if you like that sort of thing.

Which looking at that chart, could feed right across to the Bristol area too. Many other areas look dry, sunny and cold away from Irish Sea coasts where there's a chance of rain

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Except better.

That is one BITTER chart and notice the low heights over the southern uk, means bands of slow moving snow across the southern districts, 

 

On another note it looks very similar to UKMO upstream toward Greenland with the vortex and with it associated deep cold uppers has began to shift from Canada, moving south east, it looks like if and a very big if, the scandi heights break down enough to allow the vortex to be the dominant player, we could be looking at a very strong northwesterly with the Azores propping up shop to the west of the UK? 

 

[Mucka]

So 192, does the low disrupt SE?

Edit.

Yup, if we get something like this but with the pattern backed further West and more trough disruption there could be a lot of snow - long way out though

Edited February 2, 2018 by Mucka

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Also note the Azores high being displaced further west..

 

Yes it good to see the Azores high well away from Iberia to allow the colder air to sink south, much different to recent years 

[stratty]

The snow potential is massive! Nuff said!  

[Ice Day]

Quick one from me, 0-144 hours ECM and UKMO are both great, GFS still good but not quite as good.  Anything after that is just conjecture, looking very good though.

This is now just 72 hours away 

Then it gets colder!  See you all later

[Tony Beets]

33 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120

Looks like it's just about to impregnate Britain with the white stuff!!

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, Tony Beets said:

Looks like it's just about to impregnate Britain with the white stuff!!

Yes a blinding run from ECM sir

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, Tony Beets said:

Looks like it's just about to impregnate Britain with the white stuff!!

Looks like the Grange Hill sausage