Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[shotski]

Finally at t-804 we have a finger of milder uppers approaching our shores. Must remember to wake Sydney ??

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I’ve always liked You Feb 

All seriousness though, CFS has been quite consistent last few days about a very cold blocked Feb into March. I know it’s not the most reliable model but it’s accessible, so we are always going to look. 

It must be the SSW that's doing these crazy 4c -ve temp anomalies throughout 1 month+ that are coming out of the CFS lately, if we maintain the pattern with that frigid air to the East and the GFS SSW verifies we would be looking at a spell miles superior to this effort next week, the EPS now back up the split SSW but it looks a tad further East but still very decent.

[ICE COLD]

48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps mean get colder post day 10 !!!!

 

 

45 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hopefully number 16 from the gfs ensemble run,is where we will end up mid-month with sub -20 hpa incoming from the other side of the North sea

 

 

That's well good news BA . I take it there are lots of ens members in the ecm suit that look like the one  sleety just posted ? That is a stonking chart sleety ??

[Allseasons-Si]

Pick the bones out of the latest de-built dew point ens,there was a scatter from the 3rd when i posted it the other night

just for newbies about snow amounts on how much,where and when will be ni-on impossible to predict this far out,and for folk who know this game should know better

Oslo pressure shows a peek of 1040mb of heights on the 5th(Monday) before dropping off a bit to then rise again later,but who's to say this may rise still in the medium term,the av temps look cold up there,perhaps too cold for the graph and we need a -30 one lol

The AO is tanking still with some neg values there,IE:-neg AO=more north to south meridial pattern whereas a pos AO=west to east>flat pattern

now,finally the mean pressure,850 temps and 500 pot height anomaly's from ecm,gfs @ 240,pretty bang on with each other with a flow north of west and colder shots as the lows/trough's head from a NW to SE direction

i still see a number of trough diruptions again today across the suits,let the fun times begin

 

 

[Dacyfo]

2 hours ago, Draig Goch said:

Still some disagreement between GFS, ECM & UKMO perhaps? Many people (including myself) have noticed this temperature difference from various parts of the U.K. & Ireland. UKMO continues to be "less cold" than the others 

I'm wondering could this be caused because UKMO show temps in towns and cities and therefore have an urban heat effect whereas the other models don't. Or am I completely wrong on that.

[markw2680]

I think it will be too cold to snow!!!

 

haha don’t you just hate it when some say such rubbish, anyway I’d say it’s looking bitter next week and I’m pretty sure snow will be mentioned quite a bit as we no stuff will pop up with very little notice

 

[winterof79]

Err West veering North veering E/NE for a while then just veering all over the shop

Hope that clears that up then

[Paul]

5 minutes ago, Dacyfo said:

I'm wondering could this be caused because UKMO show temps in towns and cities and therefore have an urban heat effect whereas the other models don't. Or am I completely wrong on that.

All models have UHI effects built into them. 

[damianslaw]

I used the word trough disruption yesterday; and the models are certainly saying this is on the cards for the foreseeable; heights building through scandi on a defined SW-NE elongation enabling a very cold upper pool to develop and plunge into N Europe advecting our way, azores high resident to our SW and unusually a pincer attack from the NW also, with sub-10 uppers invading towards western coasts - warm sectors associated with any frontal attacks becoming squeezed and combusting in situ as the cold to the west and east mixes it out quickly. Possibly snowy for some next week, staying cold, very cold locally at times.

Longer term - I'm keeping an eye on stratospheric developments, if the PV does split, then every chance a more significant robust larger ridge will develop to our NE; against the vagaries of the PV which will continue to cause a tight temp gradient through N Atlantic, where will the atlantic frontal attacks go, either under the ridge, or more trough disruption. Could be a very different Feb ahead compared to many we've seen recently. 

[philglossop]

Been interesting on patrol out today and evening- cold with a sleety shower at 3pm in Devonport and boy that wind chill this evening in a NNW wind was getting bitter- which for Plymouth is pretty good.

 

Be intersting to see if that -7 /-8 500 line comes into play next Tuesday/Wednesday. Let’s see if that front becomes a bit more progressive against the block rather than stalling in Ireland.

IF it turns Easterly those uppers scream February 1987 and that was an amazing cold spell down here 

[Allseasons-Si]

On the 18z coming out shortly,i will be looking for more trough disruption and the height's gain more momentum to our NE

speaking of height's to our NE,didn't we right it off a few days ago?,it just shows how quick the models change,and for the better

18z coming out now so

up

Edited February 1, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

This is the mean anomoly for Dec and jan

 

Perhaps feb will see a similar return but retrogressed a little. Given the lower temps over the continent, that could be quite interesting for the uk. 

Edited February 1, 2018 by bluearmy

[Sneachtastorm]

2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's a completely different set up to 2010.

Back then we had constant strong Northeast to East winds which drove showers well inland. Anyone who knows a bit about forecasting knows that under col conditions like next week dry and bitter bitter cold is the former horse.

So different to 2010 BUT because of the encroaching atlantic it COULD deliver as much fun!!

The start of the second cold spell in 2010 was result of a straight Northerly thanks to a Greenland high. 

[Snowman.]

Shortwave running west under the high. Could provide a snow event if it makes it far enough.

[Allseasons-Si]

@ 66 the -8 is quickier into the SE

[Snowy L]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This is the mean anomoly for Dec and jan

 

Perhaps feb will see a similar return but retrogressed a little. Given the lower temps over the continent, that could be quite interesting for the uk. 

Goes to show how useless anomalies are at showing real conditions. You would think the UK was buried under snow in January looking at that.

[Weathizard]

7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@ 66 the -8 is quickier into the SE

Every inch counts...

[shaky]

Bloody norah its quiet in here!!thought it would be buzzin!!thats me done for the night!!lets see what the 00zs bring!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly battle on Tues, but GFS probably too progressive

[ICE COLD]

Hmmmm very Quite on here ?. Is the GFS 18z going ok ? Im panicking now . Mr Murr come in and steady the nerves ? 

Edited February 1, 2018 by ICE COLD

[markw2680]

Just now, shaky said:

Bloody norah its quiet in here!!thought it would be buzzin!!thats me done for the night!!lets see what the 00zs bring!!

Everyone’s either waiting for the breakdown or just simply in shock. 

It all looks quite nailed on now well I hope

[I remember Atlantic 252]

brings Tuesdays front East, but GFS is known for being too progressive

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Every inch counts...

Yes it does

the 850's are not as cold at 102 but i do like the point in direction from that -16 cold pool over southern Scandi>pointing west

Edited February 1, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[MattStoke]

GFS still far more progressive than the ECM with regards to the frontal system early next week. Coldest air from the east a little further east and the mild sector a touch slower to 'mix out' than on it's 12z run.

I think the GFS is often too progressive and the ECM not progressive enough. A half way house would be good for central/western areas of the UK in terms of snow.

Edited February 1, 2018 by MattStoke

[Hodgheg]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes it does

the 850's are not as cold at 102 but i do like the point in direction from that -16 cold pool over southern Scandi>pointing west

Its nice to have a situation where we can play around with the 850's a little bit for once and still get snow.