Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Bye bye Gulf Stream

[jethro]

10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Indeed! Bit messy though isn't it Steve? Not exactly a sharp flow so we'd be hoping for troughs/Atlantic disruption rather than shower activity?

 

M4 snow barrier strikes again 

Have you got a map handy?

[nick sussex]

Great start to the evening with the UKMO upgrading from this mornings 00hrs run.

Its also sharpening up the upstream trough at T144hrs so more trough disruption likely.

The default background signal seems to be a westwards correction so output showing the trough making too much eastwards progress later could yet be modified.

Wonderful to see at last some decent winter synoptics for the UK.

 

[Yarmy]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

My question here is: how far east will the snowfall get before it peters out?

Where does it stall? According to the GFS, quite literally 1 mile west of my house.

Seriously though, wherever it ends up the front just sits there for hours on end. Quite disruptive, you'd imagine.

[ZK099]

Not sure how good this would be for North East England. These sort of synoptics are perfect for South East and Southern England really 

[lawrenk]

13 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Indeed! Bit messy though isn't it Steve? Not exactly a sharp flow so we'd be hoping for troughs/Atlantic disruption rather than shower activity?

 

M4 snow barrier strikes again 

Looking at chart don’t you mean the M23?

[Astral Goat Juice]

1 minute ago, ZK099 said:

Not sure how good this would be for North East England. These sort of synoptics are perfect for South East and Southern England really 

They are also perfect for the North West of England. Frontal snow and stalling against the block. 

[tight isobar]

Ere we go-about the snow...

Leave it until weekend..

Give my strength..

Need to decipher-sectors and segments!!

[Day 10]

It's great to see a mild sector have the life squeezed out of it from both sides!

[-uksnow-]

Nothing warm about 850s at 144 (UKMO) - fantastic to see you guys in the UK finally getting some luck this winter, definitely no worries about cold air to your east with -15 highs predicted here next week. 

[craigore]

4 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

Not sure how good this would be for North East England. These sort of synoptics are perfect for South East and Southern England really 

Looking at the ppn charts , It never reaches the S.E so where are u getting your prediction from ?

[londonblizzard]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

It's great to see a mild sector have the life squeezed out of it from both sides!

Yes, mild sector after mild sector destroyed. Not something you see often!

[Scandinavian High.]

Uk looking cold but south east England look at that cold blob very cold...

[Paul]

This isn't really the thread to be posting will it/won't it snow in my backyard type stuff, please head to the regional threads for that. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

 

[Jimmyh]

1 minute ago, craigore said:

Looking at the ppn charts , It never reaches the S.E so where are u getting your prediction from ?

Don't look at the PPN charts despite what I posted on the early pages. That was just a whizz. Get the stonking xold in first and then we will get the snow definitely in this set up.

[snowice]

18 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Where does it stall? According to the GFS, quite literally 1 mile west of my house.

Seriously though, wherever it ends up the front just sits there for hours on end. Quite disruptive, you'd imagine.

It always gets pushed back in future  runs!

[winterof79]

10 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Yes, mild sector after mild sector destroyed. Not something you see often!

No we are used to a fleeting glance from the East of very cold dense air.Even then it is very difficult to displace as we saw a week or two back. The predicted very cold air never retreats and it will be a VERY lengthy battle at this time of year.

Synoptics are far better this time around.

[SMU]

I think the band coming in from the NW Tues - the cut off line will be the M1 if your lucky.... 

For once the SW could be in the firing line.....

[john mac]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I think the band coming in from the NW Tues - the cut off line will be the M1 if your lucky.... 

For once the SW could be in the firing line.....

What about convection off the North Sea Steve?

[SMU]

Just now, john mac said:

What about convection off the North Sea Steve?

Yeah - gentle being the word ! But slow moving .....SE / EA / NE !

[Chevron12345]

Amazing that everyone is talking about snow at day 5? Like its nailed? A lot can change in that time period. 

[SMU]

Look at PTB 8! The altlantic at 114 doesn’t even get to Ireland !

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at PTB 8! The altlantic at 114 doesn’t even get to Ireland !

Actually with the movement in the models over the last 24 hours, I would not be surprised if this is where we end up.

[Frosty.]

Gfs 12z looks great for very cold and snowy, frosty weather for most of next week with severe frosts over the snow fields..very exciting time for model watching..for coldies!..wish next week would hurry up and get here asap ❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited February 1, 2018 by Frosty.

[winterof79]

UKMO Cold air to our East says hello little forming cell of high pressure...I am going to eat you 

I am going to swallow and feed off you and throw you over my head as you cannot stop me...

And then I am coming after the UK 

Brilliant move that.

 

Edited February 1, 2018 by winterof79