Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

Looking good to me for the overall theme! details have slight differences! 

If things were to go the way of the Pear now, it would be some turnaround! Would go down in Netweather folk-law history no doubt! Let’s not even consider that. 

We can only see to mon/tues with any decent confidence. The really interesting stuff seems to begin Tuesday so I would hang on another 24 hours yet before that statement is valid 

Edited February 1, 2018 by bluearmy

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We can only see to mon/tues with any decent confidence. The really interesting stuff seems to begin Tuesday so I would hang on another 24 hours yet before that statement is valid 

Fair comment, but we can't get to Tuesday onward fun without +72 Verifying. It's the surge of cold from the East that arrives on Sunday that will allow for any approaching fronts from the Atlantic to fall as widespread snow, not just back edge or front edge snow? Speculation of course at this juncture, they might not even make it across a large swathe of the UK.

My point is just Agreement to +72, it's fundamental to the cold spell! And that looks to be agreed.. 12z will aid confidence hopefully.

Edited February 1, 2018 by karlos1983

[karlos1983]

ICON 1st out the traps and looking good

Edited February 1, 2018 by karlos1983

[warrenb]

If Icon is right at 144 this could be a long cold spell (It is Icon). Now I am just saying this, but Icon is showing how 1987 started

Edited February 1, 2018 by warrenb

[SMU]

IKON 144 continues the push from the east again...

 

HA ! Beaten !!

Edited February 1, 2018 by Steve Murr

[tight isobar]

4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

If Icon is right at 144 this could be a long cold spell (It is Icon). Now I am just saying this, but Icon is showing how 1987 started

Bang on warren...big similarities!!

@epic @87

Edited February 1, 2018 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

 12z Vs 0z 

night and day difference between the 0z and 12z ICON.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ICON shows pretty much something I had thought about today (As well as many others I see), after we see the Atlantic front on Tuesday stall with the trough sinking and cutting off. Would we see another attempt from the Azores high to push into Scandinavia to try and advect some bitterly cold air our way. Whilst this weekend into the start of next week looks cold, it isn't going to be a beast, but a second bit to positon a more robust high to our north east could unleash the beast conisdering the models are predicting 850s to get close to -20C over Scnadinavia next week. That is some serious cold.

Using this mornings ECM as an example for the depth of cold to our north east.

If we can tap this cleanly then this could turn from a good cold spell to a classic. The ICON gets pretty close, lets see if the GFS/UKMO and later ECM could devlelop this.

Edited February 1, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[shaky]

12z gfs seems better at 90 hours more of an easterly flow across the south!!

[Weathizard]

Interesting difference over Western Russia...low pressure system much less developed. Only at day 3

[Methuselah]

The last time I checked the BBC website, Monday's max and min were +6 and 0C respectively...Ergo, there must still be some inter-model uncertainty - Sunday's GFS12Z:

[SMU]

UKMO 72 / 96 looking great

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

GFS going steady upto 120hrs

Edited February 1, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[SMU]

Wow UKMO 120 has -11c in the SE but -14c just over the channel-

Both GFS & UKMO swinging to the Easterly reload like the IKON

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 72 / 96 looking great

Check the 120 hour chart steve and its a massivw improvement on yesterdays 12z for same time!!more amplified near greenland and trough disrupting across the uk instead of bulldozing its way eastwards!!

[Day 10]

Here comes the snow...

[weirpig]

Gfs  really now starting to show the strength of the cold to the east.   Snow band on Tuesday really struggling to move across the country  

[Methuselah]

My question here is: how far east will the snowfall get before it peters out?

[N/A]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The last time I checked the BBC website, Monday's max and min were +6 and 0C respectively...Ergo, there must still be some inter-model uncertainty - Sunday's GFS12Z:

Yes it seems like the uncertainty continues on the models because here in southwest Wales its still showing 8C & 4C for Monday 

[Weathizard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Wow UKMO 120 has -11c in the SE but -14c just over the channel-

Both GFS & UKMO swinging to the Easterly reload like the IKON

Indeed! Bit messy though isn't it Steve? Not exactly a sharp flow so we'd be hoping for troughs/Atlantic disruption rather than shower activity?

 

Just now, Day 10 said:

Here comes the snow...

M4 snow barrier strikes again 

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Here comes the snow...

Prospect of a slowing or even stalling Atlantic front, all snow, as the upper trough driving it east disrupts and weakens, then the Azores high rebuilding the ridge again after the trough disruption, with resumption of bitterly cold NEly surface flow. No signs in reliable time frame of a mild breakdown.

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Indeed! Bit messy though isn't it Steve? Not exactly a sharp flow so we'd be hoping for troughs/Atlantic disruption rather than shower activity?

 

M4 snow barrier strikes again 

uKmet 144

 

messy is is great when you have deep cold at the surface, almost stationary air - means when PPN arrives ( & it will ) it’s very slow moving

note the Trough over England @144

[Snowman.]

GFS 12z it's much better over scandi with the heights. Lack of wind over the UK aswell so could be real cold if it's clear skies at night

[frosty ground]

high pressure over Scandi now on the 12z vs low on the 06z.

[frosty ground]

More Disruption Incoming