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February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)


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This month's results Monthly Midlands Ice Age got it spot on 2.9c, while nn2013 and Duncan McAlister were each 0.1c out.   Seasonal Results (and Yearly to date) All chan

Hadley is confirmed at 2.9C, so 1.5C below the 1981-2010 average and the coldest since 2010: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt Winter came in at 4.33C, so about 0.2C b

Something to take note Months below the 1971-2000 average Feb 2018: 2.9 (-1.3)Dec 2017: 4.8 (-0.3)Nov 2017: 6.8 (-0.1)Sep 2017: 13.5 (-0.2)Aug 2017: 15.6 (-0.4) 5 in 7 months The n

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Sunny Sheffield at 2.9C -1.4C one more at least of rising temps then a stall then it should start falling again. Rainfall at 32.5mm 54.1% of average. Looking almost certain we will be well below average this month.

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3 hours ago, coram said:

Very warm weather due to hit North America - probably because of SSW. Winter is over.

North America is huge continent ..virtually all of Canada is looking cold well into March according to the models

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3 hours ago, coram said:

Very warm weather due to hit North America - probably because of SSW. Winter is over.

A couple of warm days predicted on the east coast then back below zero so winter is not over yet

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Based on the 12z below

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.0C to the 21st... -0.2    (5.0: +0.9)
4.0C to the 22nd... -0.3    (2.8: -1.4)
3.9C to the 23rd... -0.4    (2.2: -2.1)
3.8C to the 24th... -0.5    (1.9: -2.8)
3.7C to the 25th... -0.6    (1.2: -3.1)
3.6C to the 26th... -0.8    (-0.4: -5.3)
3.4C to the 27th... -1.0    (-1.0: -6.3)
3.3C to the 28th... -1.1    (0.0: -5.2)

The cold weather for the end of the month continue to be downgraded/shifted towards March, so currently little chance of any records. Still guaranteed a finish below the 81-10 average, and all but guaranteed to finish below the 61-90 average too.
Still a good chance of the coldest Feb since 2010 (2.8C) after corrections, which would also be the 2nd coldest of the last 20 years or so. 

8mYIx8i.jpg

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Sunny Sheffield at 3.2C, -1.1C below normal and this is the highest it will be for a while me thinks. Rainfall 33.1mm 55.1% Today was much colder than forecast and heading for an air frost by the looks of things. 

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Early days I know, but, with the very cold weather being predicted for the next couple of weeks.... what’s the chances of March cet being below February cet?

If so, does it happen often?

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6 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Early days I know, but, with the very cold weather being predicted for the next couple of weeks.... what’s the chances of March cet being below February cet?

If so, does it happen often?

More than you would think. Last time for us March 2013. From 1955 it's happened six times here. March 2013 was colder than all the three winter months.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 3C -1.3C below average. Rainfall unchanged. Some very cold days coming up so a good chance of ending -2C below normal. This should bring winter to just below normal for us.

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Current GFS run has the average for the 24th-28th as -1.2°c - around 5.6°c below normal

CET to the 23rd will be around 3.9°c - 0.4°c below normal.

CET will finish the month close to 3.0c°c before corrections.

2.4°c - 2.7°c will be the final landing zone. Probably the coldest month since December 2010 and 1.7°c below normal. 

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Could be the coldest end to February since 1986 I suspect. Looking strongly likely we will see a below average Feb now compared to the 61-90 average, which is quite an achievement, given many Februaries in the last 20 years have been on the average or mild side. 

Whether we go below 3 degrees remains uncertain, but good chance we will see our coldest Feb since 2010, beating 2013.

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Looks like a genuine chance to set some new cold records for the CET. Two days in particular stand out, 

Date...GFS.....Current Record

28th... -3.6C........-3.8C
1st......-4.3C........-3.5C

But if we get some still air after the snow cover then we could easily set more records into early March The daily records for the first 5 days are below

1st....-3.5C
2nd...-3.2C
3rd...-3.9C
4th...-2.9C
5th...-2.8C

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46 minutes ago, crucible72 said:

In fact it was colder than all the winter months we have had so far this decade!

Well if you go back ten years only Jan 2010 and Dec 2010 were colder after than back to 1980 to 1989 for it to be beaten. Show show poor winters have been for a while.

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March colder than February in CET records

March has been colder than February 66 times in 359 years (1659-2017), and had the same CET 13 times ... these are the five largest drops in CET values from Feb to Mar ...

 

Rank __ Year ___ FEB __ MAR ___ colder by

___ 1 __ 1883 ___ 5.9 ___ 1.9 _____ 4.0

___ 2 __ 1867 ___ 6.9 ___ 3.1 _____ 3.8

___ 3 __ 1869 ___ 7.5 ___ 3.8 _____ 3.7

___ 4 __ 1747 ___ 5.8 ___ 2.5 _____ 3.3

___ 5 __ 1789 ___ 5.0 ___ 2.1 _____ 2.9

The frequency of colder March CETs has been dropping -- the first 55 of 66 had occurred by 1926 and the 11 since then represent a drop of about 50% in frequency compared to the first three-quarters of the period of record. The only cases recently have been 1980, 1995 and 2013. The interval when this was most common was 1786 to 1797 (8 out of 12 years had a colder March than February). Four of five had one 1767 to 1771. From 1867 to 1892, 11 of 26 years had a colder March than February. So it used to be fairly common before the mid-20th century. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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