February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)

[Roger J Smith]

This latest 12z GFS looks like the CET would stay fairly close to 3 C all the way to the 24th when it appears that an easterly (already making some progress by 20th) would be under attack from the Atlantic but looking like it might then be ramping up to a colder phase once that front is shredded. Looks like 2.5 to 4.5 is a broad "comfort zone" for CET forecasts at this point. 

[Summer Sun]

2.9 to the 8th

1.5 below the 61 to 90 average

1.9 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[BornFromTheVoid]

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

2.9C to the 9th... -1.8    (3.2: -0.8)
3.1C to the 10th... -1.6    (4.5: +0.4)
3.1C to the 11th... -1.5    (3.0: -1.2)
3.0C to the 12th... -1.6    (2.1: -2.6)
3.0C to the 13th... -1.5    (3.7: -0.4)
3.1C to the 14th... -1.4    (4.3: +0.9)
3.1C to the 15th... -1.3    (3.1: -0.7)
3.1C to the 16th... -1.3    (2.8: -0.9)
3.2C to the 17th... -1.2    (4.0: +0.3)
3.2C to the 18th... -1.2    (3.2: -0.6)

Cool but not quite cold seems to be the theme for the foreseeable future, with a slow climb in the CET likely. Getting above the 81-10 average by months end (4.4C) now appears quite unlikely given the longer range forecasts, but the 61-90 average is very much within range (3.8C).

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 2C -2.2C below normal. Shouldn't really change very much if it does more likely slightly upwards next week. Rainfall 12.8mm 21.3% of average. Coldest spell of the winter not producing very much in the way snow which has been the theme this winter so far.

[Summer Sun]

3.0 to the 9th

1.4 below the 61 to 90 average

1.7 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.2C -1C below normal.Rainfall 12.9mm 21.5% of average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.3C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall 18.7mm 31.1% of average

[Summer Sun]

3.1 to the 10th

1.2 below the 61 to 90 average

1.6 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up 2.4C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 21.8mm 36.3% of normal. Slow rise should continue this week. GFS showing a very mild spring like end however this deep la la land and can only be taken with a pinch of salt. If it comes off average to above average is on the cards. The pattern this winter so far a cold spell being offset by a milder short spell and could well be repeated.

[Summer Sun]

3.2 to the 11th

1.0 below the 61 to 90 average

1.4 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the forecast based on the 06z GFS.

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.1C to the 12th... -1.5    (3.1: -1.6)
3.2C to the 13th... -1.4    (3.2: -0.9)
3.2C to the 14th... -1.3    (3.5: +0.1)
3.3C to the 15th... -1.2    (4.3: +0.5)
3.3C to the 16th... -1.1    (3.5: -0.2)
3.3C to the 17th... -1.1    (3.8: +0.1)
3.3C to the 18th... -1.0    (3.0: -0.8)
3.3C to the 19th... -1.0    (4.0: +0.0)
3.4C to the 20th... -0.9    (4.6: +0.8)
3.5C to the 21st... -0.8    (5.2: +1.1)

Maybe the cool end to the month isn't so likely after all? Anyway, mean CET values remaining close to average for the next 10 days, resulting in a slow climb. Until the models begin to get to grips with the SSW the forecasts are likely to be more unreliable than usual.

[cheeky_monkey]

sunny Edmonton is at -21.4c to the 11th ..which is 13.2c below normal..judging by the charts for the next 2 weeks this could be the coldest February here for some time and certainly the coldest in my time in Canada.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

sunny Edmonton is at -21.4c to the 11th ..which is 13.2c below normal..judging by the charts for the next 2 weeks this could be the coldest February here for some time and certainly the coldest in my time in Canada.

How has the winter being for Canada as a whole?

[Summer Sun]

3.1 to the 12th

1.0 below the 61 to 90 average

1.5 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[cheeky_monkey]

20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

How has the winter being for Canada as a whole?

Canada is a big place..its been pretty mixed where i am ...have had some very cold spells and some very mild spells..the first 2 weeks of December had record breaking mild...the last few weeks have been cold and quite snowy.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 2.3C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall 22mm 36.8% of average. Latest runs suggest a spring like spell later next week as the SSW event places the high in the wrong place. Odds slipping towards another average month possibly above.

[Roger J Smith]

Latest GFS shows near-normal temperatures for a few days under high pressure next week but eventually a very cold easterly shows up for the last 3-4 days of the month. If all that actually happens, we would end the month around where we are now. The CET would gradually push up towards 4 C then plunge back at the end towards 3 C. But only if this easterly actually materializes. The GFS has shown it about three quarters of the past 12 to 16 runs, but sometimes it cuts too far south and keeps Britain in more average conditions. The ECM also had cold easterly flow on the 00z run but seems to be pushing that back (like the GFS) later into the month if at all. 

Still think the outcome will be 3 point something or very low 4's. 

Unrelated note: if you checked the precip contest scoring a while ago and haven't been back into either that thread or the January thread, I have posted slightly revised results, reason being that the Met Office maintains its own EWP data site which is marginally different from the Hadley site that I had found. It has changed a few of the scores slightly and I will continue with this change partly because the Met Office site updates quickly after month's end, Hadley have been slow to update January and were not all that fast on December either. There is now a table of annual scoring combining the (slightly revised) Dec and Jan scores. 

[damianslaw]

The upcoming high pressure looks a clean one - i.e. limited cloud which should create large diurnal temp ranges, frosty nights followed by maxes probably in the high single digits, which would return near average means, possibly a little below average. 

Still a very good chance we will end up below the 81-10 average at least, and quite probably the 61-90 average if we see a cold easterly towards the end.

[Summer Sun]

3.1 to the 13th

0.9 below the 61 to 90 average

1.5 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[BornFromTheVoid]

The forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.1C to the 14th... -1.4    (3.0: -0.5)
3.2C to the 15th... -1.3    (4.1: +0.3)
3.2C to the 16th... -1.2    (3.6: -0.1)
3.3C to the 17th... -1.1    (4.4: +0.7)
3.4C to the 18th... -0.9    (6.2: +2.4)
3.7C to the 19th... -0.6    (8.1: +4.1)
3.9C to the 20th... -0.4    (7.4: +3.6)
3.9C to the 21st... -0.3    (5.4: +1.3)
4.1C to the 22nd... -0.2    (6.5: +2.3)
4.2C to the 23rd... -0.1    (6.9: +2.6)

Quite the surprise in recent runs, the cold getting pushed back with the replacement being the mildest weather of the month so far. If the cold (currently beyond day 10) gets pushed back any more we may well be looking at a month that comes close to the 81-10 average!

[The PIT]

No change temp wise Sunny Sheffield, Rainfall up to 25.2mm 41.9% of average. Double figure temperatures and mild from Sunday should see a rapid rise in temperatures. My thoughts shifting more to an average to above average month. No sign of the SSW having any effect so wondering whether it's just plain too late in season to do so.

[Summer Sun]

3.1 to the 14th

0.9 below the 61 to 90 average

1.4 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[The PIT]

No change in the temp in Sunny Sheffield still 2.3C any drops in the min off set by warmer days. Rainfall 28.5mm 47.4% of average. Very mild weather next week so a rapid rise in average values. At present it's looking more like an above average month is likely.

[Relativistic]

Looks like the alleged quick tropospheric response isn't materialising. It seems more and more as if the SSW isn't going to have any effects before the end of the month. The February CET looking to end up very unremarkable.

[Summer Sun]

3.2 to the 15th

0.6 below the 61 to 90 average

1.2 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd