Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

4.6 to the 1st

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Day 1 and a downward correction will be needed.:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.6C to the 2nd    +0.2  (4.7: -4.4)
4.2C to the 3rd     -0.3  (3.3: -4.7)
3.9C to the 4th     -0.8  (2.9: -5.1)
3.2C to the 5th     -1.6  (0.7: -5.3)
2.7C to the 6th     -2.2  (-0.1: -5.4)
2.3C to the 7th     -2.6  (-0.3: -4.7)
1.9C to the 8th     -2.9  (-0.2: -4.4)
1.7C to the 9th     -3.0  (0.1: -4.0)
1.8C to the 10th   -2.8  (2.4: +4.1)
2.0C to the 11th   -2.7  (3.5: +4.2)

Quite a cool start to the month. 1.8C to the 10th would rank as the 3rd coolest start of the last 10 years, beaten by both 2012 (-0.8C to the 10th) and 2009 (0.5C to the 10th), which finished their months on 3.8C and 4.1C respectively. So a cold start in recent years has not lead to cold months overall.

iE5Mkyz.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.9 to the 2nd

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

As the stats above show, its been a long time since we have had a February dominated by sustained much colder than average conditions - last one was 1986. 2009 and 2012 produced notably cold first halves cancelled out by very mild second halves. 2005 was a reversal of fortunes a cold second half - though not especially so cancelled out by a mild first half. 1991 delivered a very cold first half, but again a milder second.  Since 1986, we've had months such as 1994, 1996, 2001, 2010 and 2013 that brought persistently average/colder than average conditions throughout, but not of an especially severe degree. 

Will Feb 2018 be a Feb 1986, 1991, 2009, 2012 no..

Will it be a Feb 1994, 1996, 2001, 2010 or 2013 quite probably, but with perhaps a 2005 latter part. 

Many recent Febs have seen notably very mild conditions at times, often quite sustained, perhaps this Feb will not offer such fayre.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I have tables of entries ready to post at midnight, in case there are any further late entries.

So far we have 78 in the temperature contest, median 4.0 C. And in the precip portion, we have 59 forecasts, median there is 67 mm which is close to the 1981-2010 mean of 66.5 mm. 

There is a notable trend in the temperature forecasts towards colder estimates as we move from the first page to the last page of entries.

The first twenty entries had a median value of 5.1 C. The next twenty were grouped around a median of 4.55 C. After that, the rest of the entries had a median of 3.3 C.

 

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.3 to the 3rd

Bang on the the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.1 to the 4th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Below is the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.5C to the 5th... -1.3  (1.5: -3.8)
2.9C to the 6th... -2.0  (-0.3: -5.7)
2.5C to the 7th... -2.4  (-0.1: -4.8)
2.3C to the 8th... -2.5  (1.0: -3.4)
2.2C to the 9th... -2.5  (1.4: -2.6)
2.1C to the 10th... -2.5  (1.6: -2.5)
2.2C to the 11th... -2.4  (3.0: -1.2)
2.3C to the 12th... -2.4  (2.8: -1.9)
2.4C to the 13th... -2.2  (3.7: -0.4)
2.6C to the 14th... -1.9  (5.7: +2.3)

Things not looking quite as cold as before the weekend, but a reasonable cool spell is still likely. If the above forecast is correct, the 2nd half of the month would have to average 6.1C or higher to reach the 81-10 average of 4.4C.

97rKPOB.jpg

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 3C -1.2C below normal. Rainfall 4.3mm 7.2% of average.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.6 to the 5th

0.8 below the 61 to 90 average

1.2 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.6C -1.6C below normal. No change in rainfall.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.1 to the 6th

1.3 below the 61 to 90 average

1.8 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

here's the forecast based on the latest 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

2.7C to the 7th... -2.1    (0.8: -3.9)
2.8C to the 8th... -2.0    (2.9: -1.5)
2.7C to the 9th... -2.1    (1.9: -2.1)
2.8C to the 10th... -1.9    (3.9: -0.2)
3.0C to the 11th... -1.7    (4.6: +0.4)
2.9C to the 12th... -1.7    (2.4: -2.3)
3.0C to the 13th... -1.6    (3.6: -0.5)
3.1C to the 14th... -1.4    (5.4: +2.0)
3.1C to the 15th... -1.4    (2.2: -1.6)
3.1C to the 16th... -1.3    (3.1: -0.6)

We've now gone from a significant cold spell to a run-of-the-mill cool spell. So far this month the GFS has had a bit of a cool bias, with the actual lows and highs both milder than forecast. Without a significant cold spell during the 2nd half of the month, it's likely that the low point for the CET will be reached in the next few days.

k38hC2s.jpg

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
7 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

here's the forecast based on the latest 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

2.7C to the 7th... -2.1    (0.8: -3.9)
2.8C to the 8th... -2.0    (2.9: -1.5)
2.7C to the 9th... -2.1    (1.9: -2.1)
2.8C to the 10th... -1.9    (3.9: -0.2)
3.0C to the 11th... -1.7    (4.6: +0.4)
2.9C to the 12th... -1.7    (2.4: -2.3)
3.0C to the 13th... -1.6    (3.6: -0.5)
3.1C to the 14th... -1.4    (5.4: +2.0)
3.1C to the 15th... -1.4    (2.2: -1.6)
3.1C to the 16th... -1.3    (3.1: -0.6)

We've now gone from a significant cold spell to a run-of-the-mill cool spell. So far this month the GFS has had a bit of a cool bias, with the actual lows and highs both milder than forecast. Without a significant cold spell during the 2nd half of the month, it's likely that the low point for the CET will be reached in the next few days.

k38hC2s.jpg

If these strat forecasts do what we have been told they will, a reasonable chance of a CET below 3C? A westerly second half could get us between 4C and 5C, though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.2C -2C below normal. Rainfall no change. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

2.8 to the 7th

1.6 below the 61 to 90 average

2.1 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

1.6c here to the 7th, 2.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

Looks set to rise in the next 5 days but unlikely to get back to average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Cloudy Edmonton is at a chilly -22.2c to 7th..that's 14c below normal :cold:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
On 07/02/2018 at 14:18, BornFromTheVoid said:

here's the forecast based on the latest 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

2.7C to the 7th... -2.1    (0.8: -3.9)
2.8C to the 8th... -2.0    (2.9: -1.5)
2.7C to the 9th... -2.1    (1.9: -2.1)
2.8C to the 10th... -1.9    (3.9: -0.2)
3.0C to the 11th... -1.7    (4.6: +0.4)
2.9C to the 12th... -1.7    (2.4: -2.3)
3.0C to the 13th... -1.6    (3.6: -0.5)
3.1C to the 14th... -1.4    (5.4: +2.0)
3.1C to the 15th... -1.4    (2.2: -1.6)
3.1C to the 16th... -1.3    (3.1: -0.6)

We've now gone from a significant cold spell to a run-of-the-mill cool spell. So far this month the GFS has had a bit of a cool bias, with the actual lows and highs both milder than forecast. Without a significant cold spell during the 2nd half of the month, it's likely that the low point for the CET will be reached in the next few days.

k38hC2s.jpg

I'm not hugely knowledgeable when it comes to stratospheric influences but it sounds from the model thread (reliable source?) as if the models won't yet have a grip on what the precise impacts of the SSW are. The final half of the month seems to be the period to keep an eye on. Hopefully the CET will tumble!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Going to be interesting this month. Second half, going by what is going on in the stratosphere, could either be average or potentially very cold. Unlikely we will record an above average second half to this month.

The CET for the period 9th-15th looks set to average 4.4°c going by the current GFS run. That's fairly close to normal; perhaps slightly on the mild side.

The current provisional CET is 2.8°c to the 7th and will probably remain there for todays update.

Provisional CET to the 15th will be around 3.5°c. 52.5 

To beat 2013 (3.2°c) the second half needs to average 2.7°c

... 1996 (2.5°c) 1.2°c

... 1991 (1.5°c) -1.0°c

... 1986 (-1.1°c) -6.5°c

I suspect all of those are out of reach apart from 2013. But colder than 1996 is possible if the hype flowers to fruition. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...