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Roger J Smith

February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)

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Also @J10 I think you'd better check yours before midnight????

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3 hours ago, J10 said:

144.7c and 100mm (in time this month)

4.7c and 100mm a bit better there.

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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Lol, there would be no precipitation as it would be steam at that temperature. :shok:

I was trying to out do Craig Evans :D

 

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Also @J10 I think you'd better check yours before midnight????

Now corrected. :D

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On 30/01/2018 at 12:07, stewfox said:

4.3c and 73mm slightly above average

ok late change going for 3.3c 73mm 

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2.7c for me please

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4.0C & 52mm please.

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3.6C 60mm please.

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Change to 2.6 (exclusive entry as reason, midnight looms)

 

I will wait until 4th of Feb (at 0001h most likely) to post tables in the Scoring and Competition thread, the main reason being that I can't seem to retain an edit function very long so until I solve that, I don't want to post two sets, one today and another one then. However, here's a general summary of the entries as we approach the on-time deadline ... numbers in brackets represent multiple entries at that value. Median (consensus) is bold type.

 

Temps: 

 

6.0 and above ... 6.5, 6.8, 7.5, 7.9, 10.0

5.5 to 5.9 ... 5.7, 5.8, 5.9

5.0 to 5.4 ... 5.0 (4), 5.2 (4), 5.3, 5.4

4.7 to 4.9 ... 4.7 (5), 4.8 (4), 4.9 (2)

4.4 to 4.6 ... 4.4 (2), 4.5 (2), 4.6

4.0 to 4.3 .... 4.0 (3), 4.1, 4.2, 4.3 (2)

3.6 to 3.9 .... 3.6 (2), 3.7 (2), 3.8, 3.9

3.0 to 3.5 .... 3.0, 3.2, 3.3 (4), 3.4 (2), 3.5 (2)

2.0 to 2.9 .... 2.0, 2.1 (2), 2.2 (2), 2.4 (2), 2.6, 2.7 (2), 2.9

1.9 and below .... -0.3, 0.6, 0.8, 1.7, 1.9

____

 

then for precip we have these forecasts:

 

150 mm and above ... 252, 500

130.0 to 149.9 mm

110.0 to 129.9 mm

100.0 to 100.9 mm .... 100 (2), 102

 90.0 to 99.9 mm ... 92, 95, 98

 80.0 to 89.9 mm ... 80, 81.5, 82, 83, 84 (2), 85 (2), 87

 70 to 79.9 mm .... 72 (2), 73, 75, 76, 79 (4)

 60 to 69.9 mm ... 60 (4), 62 (2), 64 (3), 65 (2), 66, 66.3, 67, 68, 69

 40 to 59.9 mm .... 43 (2), 45.5, 46, 48, 49 (2), 50, 51.5, 52, 55 (2), 58

below 40 ... ... ... 33, 37

Edited by Roger J Smith
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On 25/01/2018 at 21:16, Daniel* said:

I’m fairly confident this is going to the coldest month of the winter. 2.1C thanks potentially exceptional cold for a week, only for second half to subdue extreme cold anomaly. Rainfall near average 69mm.

 I never saw a need to change this well if GFS 18z is right it is setting up to be a sub zero month. A very cold feb has been a long time coming - 2018 is going to have a go for it IMO. 

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I see a rush to lower some predictions Gfs 18 effect I presume 😜

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Whoops!   a tad late! The start of the month crept up on me

Going to a very warm end to a pretty cold start    5.2C   40mm

 

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CET extremes for February (1772-2017) and 1981-2010 means

____________________________________________________________

DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cumulative to date

01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8

06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9
08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816)*... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... *(1895 was -7.4)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5
15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4

16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3

21 Feb ... 10.6 (1813) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 10.4 in 2016 almost
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4
29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4

___________________________________________________________

The last cold record set in February was 32 years ago (11 Feb 1986)

The last warm record set in February was 6 years ago (23 Feb 2012)

Feb 1779 managed to average 7.9 without breaking (setting at that early stage) any of the existing daily records. The oldest surviving warm record is 10.2 from 14 Feb 1794. 

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Well the sudden change in the models into suddenly very cold weather rather than the mobile transient weather we saw in Jan has scuppered my chances already.

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4.0c to the 1st, 0.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

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3.4C sounds about right.  Next few days will have a significant influence on the final result of course!

87mm - a complete guess as this could go either way!

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A long shot, but there could be some new day records set in the middle of the month.11th, 18th, 19th, 21st, 22nd and 23rd all possible.

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4.6 to the 1st

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

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