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Roger J Smith

February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)

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1,9C and 60mm please,

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4.0C and 62mm please.

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Close to average on both fronts:

4.7C and 80mm 

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144.7c and 100mm (in time this month)

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32 minutes ago, J10 said:

144.7c and 100mm (in time this month)

Lol, there would be no precipitation as it would be steam at that temperature. :shok:

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A somewhat daring guess of 2.4*C and 49 mm will do for me, thanks.

Well aware that the temperature can climb a lot in the final week or so... but sometimes that gets overpowered. Occasionally, a lot!

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21 hours ago, mulzy said:

4.0C and 62mm please.

Can i revise please?

3.4C and 62mm please.  NWP generally suggest a cold start to February.

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4.7c for me please.

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Been a long time since we have had a notably cold February i.e. 2 degrees or below, last time 1991.. and again not expecting a notably cold one this year.. but I'm not expecting a particularly mild one either, greater chance of coming in colder than average than above I think, but perhaps only a little below. I will go with 3.7 degrees, my thinking based on a quieter atlantic, with colder pooling in evidence over the continent, much more so than during Dec and Jan and the denser cold air against an ever weakening atlantic will edge out its influence. Also much less of a north-south divide, with the south close to the cold pooling. Outside chance could be a degree colder as well, somewhere in the high 2's.

Any northerly shots will be potent as well thanks to the notable cold pooling over NW Canada - indeed a pincer movement cold from the west and east.

A seasonal February in the offing.

Edited by damianslaw
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Not convinced about a possible 'real' cold spell in the next week (we've been here before at the start of each month this winter and look how it's panned out). For me 5.1c

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Second half could be colder than the first if ‘background’ signals such as the MJO into phase 8 and split vortex work in our favour, going for a 1.7 with 64mm

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2.2°C and 51.5 mm please. 

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-0.3 please.

 

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