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Roger J Smith

February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)

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CET averages and extremes for February

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
 7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

 7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

 7.0 ... 2002

 6.7 ... 1997

 6.5 ... 1995

 6.4 ... 2011

 6.3 ... 2000

 6.2 ... 2014
 6.1 ... 2017

 5.9 ... 1989
 5.8 ... 2007

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004, 2008

 5.3 ... 1999

 4,9 ... 1988, 2016

 4.8 ... 1982 and mean for 2001-2017
 

 4.6 ... 1993
 

 4.4 ... 2001 and mean 1981-2010
 4.3 ... 2005

 4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
 4.1 ... 2009

 4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and 2015

 3.9 ... mean for 1659-2017 (all 359 years) and 2003
 3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and 2012

 3.7 ... 2006

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.3 ... 1984

 3.2 ... 1994, 2013

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700

 2.8 ... 2010

 2.5 ... 1996

 2.1 ... 1985

 1.7 ... 1983

 1.5 ... 1991

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Wednesday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Saturday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

Optional Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above.

 

Wettest ... ... ... ...158.6 (1833)

__ recent ... ... ... 143.2 (1990)

 

1988-2017 avg ... 73.2 

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5

 

__ recent ... ... ... 13.8 (1993)

Driest ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 (1891)

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Rest in pieces 'winter' 2017/2018!  10C  :(  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C February in 2010.  Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.  Out with a mild whimper...

Also very wet with 500mm

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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4.7c and 102mm please.

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4.8C and 98mm please

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4.9c 100mm please 

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3.7C and 33mm please...

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Subject to reality check on 31st, 

7.1 and 57 mm. 

Daffodils everywhere. 

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4.4 and 37mm for me plse 

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3.8c and 46mm

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5.9c & 79mm please

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4.3C and 95mm please

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4.0C and 55mm for me please. 

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I’m fairly confident this is going to the coldest month of the winter. 2.1C thanks potentially exceptional cold for a week, only for second half to subdue extreme cold anomaly. Rainfall near average 69mm.

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