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February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.7 to the 25th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield done to 2.8C -1.5C below normal no change in rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A finish of 3.1C +/-0.1C, before corrections, looks most likely. Corrections could be anywhere from +0.1C to -0.5C, leaving a range of about 2.5C to 3.3C after corrections. That essentially guarantees us a CET below the 81-10 and 61-90 averages, and means this February could be the coldest since 1996 (2.5C) or since 2013 (3.2C).
Additionally, the 28th is currently forecast to average about -3.7C. This would be the coldest daily CET since Christmas day in 2010 (-5.8C), and the coldest February day since Feb 9th 1991 (-3.8C)!

March 1st also is currently forecast to be the 3rd coldest March day on record (-4.5C) so something to keep an eye on! Coldest 3 are currently the 12th in 1845 at -6.5C, the 6th in 1786 at -4.7C, and the 3rd in 1965 and -3.9C.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

A finish of 3.1C +/-0.1C, before corrections, looks most likely. Corrections could be anywhere from +0.1C to -0.5C, leaving a range of about 2.5C to 3.3C after corrections. That essentially guarantees us a CET below the 81-10 and 61-90 averages, and means this February could be the coldest since 1996 (2.5C) or since 2013 (3.2C).
Additionally, the 28th is currently forecast to average about -3.7C. This would be the coldest daily CET since Christmas day in 2010 (-5.8C), and the coldest February day since Feb 9th 1991 (-3.8C)!

March 1st also is currently forecast to be the 3rd coldest March day on record (-4.5C) so something to keep an eye on! Coldest 3 are currently the 12th in 1845 at -6.5C, the 6th in 1786 at -4.7C, and the 3rd in 1965 and -3.9C.

 

Hadn't realised we didn't record any Feb since 1996 in the 2.5-3.2 degree range, a finish below 3.2 degrees then would be notable, coldest since 1996 is good going.

The CET value for 28 Feb though is more noteworthy, coldest day since 25 Dec 2010, and coldest in Feb since 1991, these are notable statistics. 

Its been an odd month overall, episodic and apart from today through until Wed, no notably cold weather, just consistently below average but with a short mild period.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Hadn't realised we didn't record any Feb since 1996 in the 2.5-3.2 degree range, a finish below 3.2 degrees then would be notable, coldest since 1996 is good going.

 

Actually, February 2010 had a CET of 2.8C.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.5 to the 26th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Looks like 3.1C or 3.2C will be the values before correction. A small chance of setting a record for the 28th. Current forecast is for -3.6C, while the current record is -3.8C

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 2.7C -1.6C below normal. Rainfall 33.3mm 55.4% of average

Final figure looks around 2.5C and possibly 34 to 35mm of rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.4 to the 27th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average

1.0 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield ending on 2.3C -2C below normal. Rainfall still to be measured. 

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
9 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Is there still any chance of setting a daily CET record for 28th?  When was the last time we set a cold record, was it 2010 or do we have to go back further?

It's going to be close. The date record for the 28th Feb is -3.8°c. Last nights provisional minimum is down as -6.1°c. Today's maximum needs to come in at -1.5°c to equal that. After corrections it's certainly possible.

Last time a winter record date was set was December 2010 I think (that year set several)

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
36 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

It's going to be close. The date record for the 28th Feb is -3.8°c. Last nights provisional minimum is down as -6.1°c. Today's maximum needs to come in at -1.5°c to equal that. After corrections it's certainly possible.

Last time a winter record date was set was December 2010 I think (that year set several)

Last cold records were indeed set in 2010, four set in total. These were 28th November (-4.0C), 19th December (-6.8C), 20th December (-7.0C), 21st December (-5.9C). See Roger's post here:

 

Also of note that year was the November cold record for the maximum CET (-1.0C on the 28th).

 

Hmmm, just thinking about it, could the March maximum record go tomorrow? The Met Office are showing a maximum of -3C here in Birmingham. The lowest recorded March maximum CET was -0.7C (6th March 1942).

Edited by Relativistic
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Hadley is confirmed at 2.9C, so 1.5C below the 1981-2010 average and the coldest since 2010:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

Winter came in at 4.33C, so about 0.2C below the 1981-2010 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

A below average winter for a change, brilliant! 

Came close with my 2.7c, think last Feb I was only 0.1c out so am doing ok with my Febs but rubbish the rest of the year.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

No record for the 28th unfortunately, 0.2C off. Coldest Feb since 2010

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

Finally our first proper cold month of any measure since November 2016!!  This was also the first proper cold February since 2010 and shares its temperature of 2.9C. Also the most decent winter month since February 2010.  Februaries 2010 and 2018 are also the joint 4th coldest months of the 21st Century and the 3rd Millennium so far.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Good to see a decent below average month occuring in the winter, after 5 winters with mostly average, mild or very mild months.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Wow...

Just realised that my entry was  2.9C

It was a complete fluke as I put it in early this month due to being on holiday in a snowy Morocco!

Any ideas on the rainfall yet?

Drinks all round!

MIA

 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Good to see a decent below average month occuring in the winter, after 5 winters with mostly average, mild or very mild months.

Something to take note

Months below the 1971-2000 average

Feb 2018: 2.9 (-1.3)
Dec 2017: 4.8 (-0.3)
Nov 2017: 6.8 (-0.1)
Sep 2017: 13.5 (-0.2)
Aug 2017: 15.6 (-0.4)

5 in 7 months

The next 5 previous months that were below their 1971-2000 averages: Jan 2017, Nov 2016, Apr 2016, Mar 2016 and Sep 2015.  That's 5 in in 17 months 

So we seemed to have enter a coolish phase. Question is how long does it go on what with a solar minimum approaching? 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Here in Edmonton Feb finished at -15.4c...which is -7.4c below normal ...ave Max -8.3c ave Low -22.4c 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Thanks for your efforts J10.

I suppose I had to win when we had a low value.:D

I managed to climb 24 positions.

Another 24 positions would be usefull!:diablo:

MIA

Edit -This feeling is about the same as a hole in one.

Drinks all  around!

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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