February 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (and optional EWP precip contest)

[BornFromTheVoid]

06z GFS has the CET climbing up to 4.5C by the 25th.

Will give a full update for the 12z later today if I have the time.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 2.3C -2.1C below normal Rainfall at  28.5mm 47.4% of average. GFS now showing a colder outlook while ECM goes much further UKMO unceratin.

[NorthYorksWeather]

2.1c here to the 15th, 1.7c below the 1981-2010 average.

[Roger J Smith]

The GFS is mildish for about four days then slowly cools down to near ice days at the end of the month, would say if correct the outcome before corrections would be about 3.0 after a peak near 3.9 Tuesday 20th. 

The ECM is faster to freeze and although it ends on 26th it seems safe to say that its solution would remain cold to the 28th so if correct the outcome would be 2.7 before corrections, several days after the 22nd flirt with record cold which is something seen only once since 1956 (the 11th of Feb 1986 managed a very weak record). 

Just the basic math here, if the CET got to 4.0 on the 21st then these averages are required for these outcomes:

Mean CET 22-28 needs to be ____ to get this final value

_____________ 4.0 ____________ 4.0

_____________ 3.0 ____________ 3.8

_____________ 2.0 ____________ 3.5

_____________ 1.0 ____________ 3.3

_____________ 0.0 ____________ 3.0

____________ --1.0 ____________ 2.8

____________ --2.0 ____________ 2.5

[BornFromTheVoid]

Based on the 12z below

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.3C to the 16th... -1.1    (4.3: +0.6)
3.4C to the 17th... -0.9    (5.9: +2.2)
3.6C to the 18th... -0.7    (7.0: +3.2)
3.9C to the 19th... -0.5    (7.8: +3.8)
4.0C to the 20th... -0.3    (6.7: +2.9)
4.0C to the 21st... -0.3    (3.9: -0.2)
4.0C to the 22nd... -0.3    (3.5: -0.7)
3.9C to the 23rd... -0.3    (3.3: -1.0)
3.9C to the 24th... -0.4    (3.2: -1.5)
3.9C to the 25th... -0.4    (3.8: -0.5)

A noticeable change from the 06z, never reaching the 81-10 rolling average. Still opportunity to get a significantly below average - providing the cold in the final few days comes to fruition.

[Summer Sun]

3.3 to the 15th

0.4 below the 61 to 90 average

1.1 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[The PIT]

Models still in a bit of flutter. Today and the next couple days the first above average days of the month.

Anyway Sunny Sheffield up to 2.4C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall no change.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.5C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 29.4mm 48.9% of average.

Edited February 18, 2018 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

3.5 to the 17th

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

 

*Yesterday's update should have said to the 16th not 15th*

[NorthYorksWeather]

Firby at 2.2c to the 17th, 1.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Average minimum of -0.5c here so far this month. 

[The PIT]

The last time we finished with a min below zero was March 2013 we may have a chance this month.

[Summer Sun]

3.5 to the 18th

0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll do a full update for the 12z later, but the 06z GFS would have the CET on 3.0C before corrections and could even set a new record low mean for 27th (forecast -3.0C, previous record -2.8C).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Based on the 12z below

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.8C to the 19th... -0.5    (8.1: +4.1)
4.0C to the 20th... -0.3    (7.4: +3.6)
4.0C to the 21st...  -0.3    (4.9: +0.8)
4.0C to the 22nd... -0.3    (3.4: -0.8)
3.9C to the 23rd... -0.4    (2.2: -2.1)
3.8C to the 24th... -0.5    (2.0: -2.7)
3.7C to the 25th... -0.6    (0.3: -4.0)
3.5C to the 26th... -0.9    (-2.1: -7.0)
3.2C to the 27th... -1.1    (-3.0: -8.3) (Previous record low = -2.8C from 1929)
3.0C to the 28th... -1.4    (-2.1: -7.3)

The ECM shows that the arrival of the cold air is far from certain yet, but it does appear we'll see a gradual cool down after mid week that should ensure the CET remains comfortably below the 81-10 average. Both the 06z and 12z GFS suggest a real chance of breaking some cold records on the last 2 days of the month also. Exciting times!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.6C -1.7C below normal. Rainfall 31.9mm 53.1% of normal.

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Based on the 12z below

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.8C to the 19th... -0.5    (8.1: +4.1)
4.0C to the 20th... -0.3    (7.4: +3.6)
4.0C to the 21st...  -0.3    (4.9: +0.8)
4.0C to the 22nd... -0.3    (3.4: -0.8)
3.9C to the 23rd... -0.4    (2.2: -2.1)
3.8C to the 24th... -0.5    (2.0: -2.7)
3.7C to the 25th... -0.6    (0.3: -4.0)
3.5C to the 26th... -0.9    (-2.1: -7.0)
3.2C to the 27th... -1.1    (-3.0: -8.3) (Previous record low = -2.8C from 1929)
3.0C to the 28th... -1.4    (-2.1: -7.3)

The ECM shows that the arrival of the cold air is far from certain yet, but it does appear we'll see a gradual cool down after mid week that should ensure the CET remains comfortably below the 81-10 average. Both the 06z and 12z GFS suggest a real chance of breaking some cold records on the last 2 days of the month also. Exciting times!

Looking like a cold month then! It wouldn't surprise me if some of the means were much colder then forecast because of snow cover and the effect on minimums and perhaps daytime temperatures too.

Usually at this time of the year it would melt pretty quickly but given dew points and soil temperatures will also probably be very cold I reckon it could stay for a while. Furthermore I'm sure the North Sea will fuel a fair amount of convection.

Given the usual downwards corrections at the end of the month I'd maybe go for 2.4C to 2.6C.

[summer blizzard]

Avery good chance that we the first winter month 1C below average since Feb 13. 

[Roger J Smith]

Since that memorable cold spell in late February into March of 1947, these are the coldest CET daily means on each date from 20th Feb into March until the 1947 spell ended ... have posted each day from 1947 as a comparison. As 1947 was not a leap year, there's no entry for 29 Feb 1947 but there is one for since then. The readings that are daily minimum records from 1947 are highlighted in blue. We have not set a daily record in this part of February since then! And there are just two records, from 1965, on any dates in March since 7th March 1947 set a record. 

 

DATE ____ 1947 ___ coldest since ____^___ DATE ____ 1947 ___ coldest since

21 Feb ____  --2.8 ______ --4.3__ 1986___^___ 04 Mar ____ --1.4 _____ --1.6 __ 1965

22 Feb ____ --2.7 ______ --2.6 __ 1986___^___ 05 Mar ____ --1.0 _____ --1.0 __ 1970,1971

23 Feb ____ --3.5 ______ --2.4 __ 1986___^___ 06 Mar ____ --0.7 _____ --0.3 __ 1971

24 Feb ____ --6.7 ______ --3.2 __ 1963___^___ 07 Mar ____ --3.3 _____ --0.3 __ 1970

25 Feb ____ --5.1 ______ --3.6 __ 1963___^___ 08 Mar ____ --1.2 _____ --0.5 __ 1970

26 Feb ____ --1.7 ______ --2.3 __ 1986___^___ 09 Mar ____ +2.0 _____ --1.7 __ 1958

27 Feb ____ +0.6 ______ --2.3 __ 1955___^___ 10 Mar ____ +0.8 _____ --1.8 __ 1958

28 Feb ____ +0.2 ______ --2.3 __ 1955___^___ 11 Mar ____ +1.2 ___ --0.8 _ 1958 (-0.6 2013)

(29 Feb) ___ --- --- ______ +0.5__ 1968___^___ 12 Mar ____ +1.8 _____ +0.1 __ 2013

01 Mar ____  --1.9 _____ --1.0 __ 1954 ___^___ 13 Mar ____ +2.4 _____ +0.4 __ 1956

02 Mar ____ --1.1 _____ --3.2__ 1965____ ^___ 14 Mar ____ +0.8 _____ +0.7 __ 1962

03 Mar ____ --2.5 _____ --3.9__ 1965____ ^___ 15 Mar ____ +0.6 _____ --0.1 __ 1962

_________________________________________________________________________________

The records that existed before 1947 were

--2.1 (23 Feb 1785) __ --2.1 (24 Feb 1814) __ --2.8 (25 Feb 1814) __ --2.4 (7 Mar 1886). 

The records broken on 2 and 3 March 1965 were

--2.1 (2 Mar 1804) __ --2.5 (3 Mar 1947) and that had broken --2.0 (3 Mar 1778)

__________________________________________________________________________________

Daily records can be seen in my posts in monthly threads (around 2nd) of CET extremes, and also here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/73431-daily-cet-average-values-1772-2011/?page=1

 

The coldest March daily CET was --6.5 on 13th in 1845. 

It should be noted also that severe wintry weather had set in a month before this table begins in 1947. The February mean was --1.9 and the mean to the 8th of March was --1.6, for the period 20 Jan to 8 Mar it was --1.9 C. 

If we find anything from 2018 making this table, it might be a new daily record on the 27th, that one is low-hanging so to speak (-2.8, 1929). Records for 4 March (--2.9) and 5 March (--2.8) are also relatively weak compared to others in the general vicinity. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[Timmytour]

8 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Avery good chance that we the first winter month 1C below average since Feb 13. 

And yet....for those in the south east...without a single fall of settling snow greater than 1cm.

We may yet get one before the end of the month. But can't be too many winter months that come in that much below average without any significant snow in the east?

[Optimus Prime]

Will be interesting to compare the final 3 day anomalies of this month to that of November 2010;  The 27th - 30th averaged -2.3°c (!) some 8.0°c below normal.

[NorthYorksWeather]

2.6c here to the 19th, 1.2c below the 1981-2010 average.

Looks nailed for a below average month here.

[Summer Sun]

3.8 to the 19th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd

[cheeky_monkey]

Cloudy Edmonton is at -18.4c..which is 10.2c below normal..staying below normal for the rest of the month it seems.

[coram]

15 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Cloudy Edmonton is at -18.4c..which is 10.2c below normal..staying below normal for the rest of the month it seems.

Very warm weather due to hit North America - probably because of SSW. Winter is over.