South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

1.7c here at moment with patchy cloud and ground frost remaining.

All eyes to our west then tonight/tomorrow in hope that our snow doesn't evaporate before making landfall 

We could do with one of those things they send into the air in China in the summer that aids Precipitation! I'll look on Amazon, I've got Prime, might be able to same day it 

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Chevron12345 said:

? Strange comment. No falling out as far as i see it. This is certainly not the model thread....they are chasing fantasy SSW 3 weeks away!

Your temperature does seem a little high going from averages in region... Have you checked it against a second sensor?

[matt111]

4 minutes ago, Ashme said:

 

Thought I was in the Mod thread for a minute! C'mon lads play nice ???

Nothings as bad as that. 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

? Strange comment. No falling out as far as i see it. This is certainly not the model thread....they are chasing fantasy SSW 3 weeks away!

Fantasy SSW, come on Chevron. Go look at the Strat Thread, read the Met Office release from Yesterday, take note of the well respected Members in the Mod Thread. Nothing Fantasy about it. You'll end up rubbing people up the wrong way my friend! You are new to the Forum I see, so maybe you don't understand the dynamics of this Forum, especially the Regional! 

Peace! 

 

Edited February 5, 2018 by karlos1983

[festivalking]

2 pages in the last hour must be snow falling somewhere.....ah perhaps not 

[matt111]

Just now, festivalking said:

2 pages in the last hour must be snow falling somewhere.....ah perhaps not 

You’re out of luck there, as always. 

[Chevron12345]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Fantasy SSW, come on Chevron. Go look at the Strat Thread, read the Met Office release from Yesterday, take note of the well respected Members in the Mod Thread. Nothing Fantasy about it. You'll end up rubbing people up the wrong way my friend! You are new to the Forum I see, so maybe you don't understand the dynamics of this Forum, especially the Regional! 

Peace! 

 

Certainly not new, been using this website since 2008. Ok - there is supposed to be a SSW, still hasn't happened yet and if it does, has no guarantee of any cold weather effecting our tiny island. So until it shows in the models it is all just FI. I think that's a fair point of view....but my point of view may differ to you. That's what a forum is about.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Chevron12345

[Nights King]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

We could do with one of those things they send into the air in China in the summer that aids Precipitation! I'll look on Amazon, I've got Prime, might be able to same day it 

 

I'm game if you are 

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

2 pages in the last hour must be snow falling somewhere.....ah perhaps not 

Apologies. Just providing some Monday entertainment ahead of tomorrow's dandruff headshake. 

[Polar Bear]

35 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Well the airport is at 3, so going by its height in relation to our location 5-6 degrees in probably about correct. 

Anyway all temperatures showing as karlos have posted are not that cold really if we are in a cold snap.

Unless you factor in the " rare" north easterly on top... and its feel factor Chevron? . If it was the prevailing south westerly then the temps then may not be that cold really?. I flipping felt it this morning riding out first thing and I am out in all weathers every week.. thermals and about 10 layers. Lovely though.

[fromey]

@Chevron12345 I’m sorry but he SSW is not fantasy, it going to happen what we and others are not sure of is how it’s going to effect us, we could be the wrong side or it could pan out we end up going very cold.

looking at charts in to the future of how thing pans out is the fun of the chase especially when we have a SSW forecast.

i suggest reading Catcol and chio posts if you haven’t already

[Chevron12345]

1 minute ago, Polar Bear said:

Unless you factor in the " rare" north easterly on top... and its feel factor Chevron? . If it was the prevailing south westerly then the temps then may not be that cold really?. I flipping felt it this morning riding out first thing and I am out in all weathers every week.. thermals and about 10 layers. Lovely though.

North Easterlies aren't that 'rare' - 

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Polar Bear said:

Unless you factor in the " rare" north easterly on top... and its feel factor Chevron? . If it was the prevailing south westerly then the temps then may not be that cold really?. I flipping felt it this morning riding out first thing and I am out in all weathers every week.. thermals and about 10 layers. Lovely though.

I haven’t been outside yet but it certainly felt very cold when I opened the door to let the dog out earlier. 

[Chevron12345]

3 minutes ago, fromey said:

@Chevron12345 I’m sorry but he SSW is not fantasy, it going to happen what we and others are not sure of is how it’s going to effect us, we could be the wrong side or it could pan out we end up going very cold.

looking at charts in to the future of how thing pans out is the fun of the chase especially when we have a SSW forecast.

i suggest reading Catcol and chio posts if you haven’t already

I have read all there posts, ok I will go with it...the SSW is nailed. But as you agree with me, the chances of a special event like 91 or other famous events over the years (Catcol named a few years) is beyond FI. Indeed will be interesting to see what happens in the models but many are counting on this producing the goods.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Chevron12345

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Certainly not new, been using this website since 2008. Ok - there is supposed to be a SSW, still hasn't happened yet and if it does, has no guarantee of any cold weather effecting our tiny island. So until it shows in the models it is all just FI. I think that's a fair point of view....but my point of view may differ to you. That's what a forum is about.

NWP modelling of the Strat is far more reliable than the Trop. We are now a week away from that Warming coming to fruition, ALL of the evidence points towards that happening, not the other way around. Of course we might not benefit from it, but we have a 2 in 3 chance of benefiting from it, 66.66666% chance. If we don't, so what, that's life. Right now, my fl charts have as much chance of your toughts verifying, the difference is my thoughts are being shown already on Operational runs. Retrogression of a UK High heading straight to Greenland AKA Nirvnana for the UK in term's of Cold.

End of constructive post.

 

[Nights King]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

NWP modelling of the Strat is far more reliable than the Trop. We are now a week away from that Warming coming to fruition, ALL of the evidence points towards that happening, not the other way around. Of course we might not benefit from it, but we have a 2 in 3 chance of benefiting from it, 66.66666% chance. If we don't, so what, that's life. Right now, my fl charts have as much chance of your toughts verifying, the difference is my thoughts are being shown already on Operational runs. Retrogression of a UK High heading straight to Greenland AKA Nirvnana for the UK in term's of Cold.

End of constructive post.

 

So we talking about cold after the 18th of feb karlos... 

I think we should write off the 10th to the 18th no good weather needs to visit our region that week 

[karlos1983]

Just now, Nights King said:

So we talking about cold after the 18th of feb karlos... 

I think we should write off the 10th to the 18th no good weather needs to visit our region that week 

I probably don't have a clue mate  

I'll go with the 19th 

[Polar Bear]

1 minute ago, Chevron12345 said:

North Easterlies aren't that 'rare' - 

ha ha - good old dictionary -  doesn't give an immediate antonym of "prevailing" as in south westerly. Being coastal girl, it is so often a south westerly . ...Planes at Heathrow today have changed their landing and take off on account of the more easterly - which is less prevalent than the westerly direction operation at 30% of the time. Just love that fact - and noticeable from our office today.

 

 

 

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

So we talking about cold after the 18th of feb karlos... 

I think we should write off the 10th to the 18th no good weather needs to visit our region that week 

A nice sunny anticyclonic spell like 2008 would be nice while we wait for the next cold spell hehe.

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Polar Bear said:

ha ha - good old dictionary -  doesn't give an immediate antonym of "prevailing" as in south westerly. Being coastal girl, it is so often a south westerly . ...Planes at Heathrow today have changed their landing and take off on account of the more easterly - which is less prevalent than the westerly direction operation at 30% of the time. Just love that fact - and noticeable from our office today.

 

 

 

God help the air passengers if we get a northerly or a southerly... with 70/30 that doesnt leave much wiggle room for those directions 

[festivalking]

SSW happens every year as the season changes I guess the secret is if happens earlier than normal i.e next week not in the middle of march. Love to think it would happen and we get a white easter (statistically more possible than a white christmas)but no doubt it will lead to just below temperatures and a big heating bill.

As an add on when did the last early SSW happen? 2013 I know but was it January?

Edited February 5, 2018 by festivalking

[festivalking]

Heres one for the copy book, looks like according the radar its snowing in the scilly isles.........even if its a false reading still funny to see!!

[Mapantz]

Temp: 4.6°C - Hum: 72% - Dew: 0.0°C - Bar: 1024.48hPa - Wind: NE @ 7mph.

[matt111]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

IOW Members should watch with interest as these enter the Solent! Possibly might beef up a tad 

Just watching that on the radar it looks like the opposite happened.  

Edited February 5, 2018 by matt111

[Mapantz]

re temps of 6C in Somerset; i'd be surprised if you were over 6C.. Northwest Scotland is the warmest place in the British Isles at the moment, with temps between 6 and 7C. I'd say your gauge is over-reading by 2C, at least.

Edited February 5, 2018 by Mapantz