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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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It's such a shame we have been at similar stages a couple of times this Winter, only for it to implode at the final hour.

Otherwise I would be getting very excited about the up-coming potential cold spell, but I just can't bring myself to fully come on board, fingers & toes have been burnt so many times.

I shall quietly sit and watch it unfold, but not get my hopes up until I see snow falling.

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I can’t see this arrival of cold going into reverse now! We are close to the point where we can begin to look at the detail, I.e. where will it snow and how much, will it the frontal band make it this far? And can we get any disturbances in the flow from the east (that’s the least likely imo).

its possible we end up dry, but we definitely have the first 3 numbers of the lottery ticket, so we just need a bit of luck.

at least this time after Saturday, the dreaded M4 will NOT BE A FACTOR!

Not even @Mapantz can be overly cynical about this upcoming cold spell :rofl:  surely.....

it’s on like donkey kong!

Edited by karlos1983

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Long as it doesn't become south of the M27 karlos lol

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1 minute ago, jy said:

Long as it doesn't become south of the M27 karlos lol

Mind you, I should never underestimate the power of the Purbeck microclimate ! :nonono:

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Mind you, I should never underestimate the power of the Purbeck microclimate ! :nonono:

Indeed having lived on the purbeck hills for 20 years I can testify it lives its own weather!

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9 minutes ago, SteveB said:

It's such a shame we have been at similar stages a couple of times this Winter, only for it to implode at the final hour.

Otherwise I would be getting very excited about the up-coming potential cold spell, but I just can't bring myself to fully come on board, fingers & toes have been burnt so many times.

I shall quietly sit and watch it unfold, but not get my hopes up until I see snow falling.

I totally understand the caution - I like to warn wife and friends a bit ahead of MET/BBC of possibly snow and cold weather, but I'm always loath to do it too early. We have had some tantalising output this winter, much more so than in recent years, and for most of us in the South it's not really delivered. However I do think that this time it is different. We have reached the much closer timescale for looking at the charts (Tuesday's potential now only 120 hours out, not 168 or more). There is also a high level of cross model agreement, with only minor differences. Of course all the runs are just possibilities, and from a pessimist there is always the fear that the downgrade will come. Time will tell, but I am much more hopeful this time than I have been since probably Jan 2013.

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2 minutes ago, warmintim said:

I totally understand the caution - I like to warn wife and friends a bit ahead of MET/BBC of possibly snow and cold weather, but I'm always loath to do it too early. We have had some tantalising output this winter, much more so than in recent years, and for most of us in the South it's not really delivered. However I do think that this time it is different. We have reached the much closer timescale for looking at the charts (Tuesday's potential now only 120 hours out, not 168 or more). There is also a high level of cross model agreement, with only minor differences. Of course all the runs are just possibilities, and from a pessimist there is always the fear that the downgrade will come. Time will tell, but I am much more hopeful this time than I have been since probably Jan 2013.

FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT IS HOLY, DO NOT TELL A SOUL!!!

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16 minutes ago, jy said:

Oh go on,Beka,just this once.....be like being in the Model Discussion thread for a nano second lol

Will it snow in Winchester? WILL IT??

How do I make my own sledge? ...

*Off to panic buy food shopping now* ...

 

That's the best you get ... I'm still resistin'!

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18 minutes ago, SteveB said:

It's such a shame we have been at similar stages a couple of times this Winter, only for it to implode at the final hour.

Otherwise I would be getting very excited about the up-coming potential cold spell, but I just can't bring myself to fully come on board, fingers & toes have been burnt so many times.

I shall quietly sit and watch it unfold, but not get my hopes up until I see snow falling.

I'll snuggle up to you in the corner and watch Mad Tv whilst we drink wine and eat chocolate ...

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Enough of this snow talk in the ranks....im on mission impossible.....to float fish a stretch of the Hampshire Avon that is flowing slower than Usain Bolt...tough assignment methinks.

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22 minutes ago, SteveB said:

It's such a shame we have been at similar stages a couple of times this Winter, only for it to implode at the final hour.

Otherwise I would be getting very excited about the up-coming potential cold spell, but I just can't bring myself to fully come on board, fingers & toes have been burnt so many times.

I shall quietly sit and watch it unfold, but not get my hopes up until I see snow falling.

Who knows this could end up being great for the South West with fronts stalling and dumping loads of snow, we can but dream eh :D

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So everyone’s still in a positive mood this morning. :yahoo:

Feels quite cold now in the wind, could be positively mild compared to next week. 

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Quietly confident now in getting a decent run of below temps at night next week. Always struggle in my locale. Snow still up for debate.....

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Not even @Mapantz can be overly cynical about this upcoming cold spell :rofl:  surely.....

Confidence is high for cold, yep. But, I'm certainly not in the 'excited' camp, yet. Far too many factors to play out and subtle changes to hamper things for moi. You'll see no excitement from me unless forecasts at 12 hours show any wintry precipitation. 
I might sound a tad miserable, but it is the only way to behave to avoid any disappointment. My own rule applies to Summer plumes, as well. :)

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Garden full of long tailed tits this morning, all squabbling over the bird feeder. Don't get them often but they always turn up when cold weather is brewing. Just saying.......

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Love Long Tails Jethro!

Reliable time frame, are we actually going to have a dry day!?

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11 minutes ago, jethro said:

Garden full of long tailed tits this morning, all squabbling over the bird feeder. Don't get them often but they always turn up when cold weather is brewing. Just saying.......

They're my favourite. Could watch them for hours.

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Just now, jtay said:

They're my favourite. Could watch them for hours.

My bird feeders ,nuts seeds and fat balls ,had hardly been touched untill a few day ago ,then on Monday about a dozen or more Long tailed tits arrived ,flitting around the garden for about ten minutes then disappearing only to reappear twenty minutes later ,and so on .And today the berries are being closely guarded by the local black birds .As for the weather ,looking at all current charts etc ,we could get lucky especially if any fronts stall , And if Mother nature turns a blind eye to the M4 Corridoor  it could be our turn .Certainly looking like the best synoptics for us in a while .Although i do visit the Model output forum ,for any new beginners ,keep an eye on the Fax charts ,the met office updates , read between the lines ,Snow falls are very hard to predict ,but many a good fall in our area as come from Marginal situations ,right i,m off down ASda for a good stock up , could be some curtain twitching coming up ,Radar Watch ,take care all ,cheers :yahoo::cold:

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So the long tailed tit model seems to be on board? :yahoo:

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12 minutes ago, matt111 said:

So the long tailed tit model seems to be on board? :yahoo:

It is at home, confusing model signals at work, the latest woodpecker outlook says spring is on the way, persistently drumming that message home at the moment.

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45 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Love Long Tails Jethro!

Reliable time frame, are we actually going to have a dry day!?

They're one of my favourites too, so pretty.

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Not going by any model output until Sunday. Especially regards to Tuesday snow. It will either not reach us and come to nothing due to increased strength of the easterly component or deliver wet horrid frontal snow with drizzle mixed in. Anything from the Atlantic carries the risk of slush in my book. Still time for this to go wettish/slushy for us in North Somerset anyway.

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I think people have finally run out of superlatives in the Mad thread! We’re in a lull lol

either that or post restriction threats have been noted 😂

Edited by karlos1983

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think people have finally run out of superlatives in the Mad thread! We’re in a lull lol

either that or post restriction threats have been noted 😂

I think everyone is drawing a breath!!!:rofl: 

not long till the 12z and it will all start again.

im keeping a record of replies, last nights18z had 84 reply’s in 30mins no doubt it will be broken 

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2 minutes ago, fromey said:

I think everyone is drawing a breath!!!:rofl: 

not long till the 12z and it will all start again.

im keeping a record of replies, last nights18z had 84 reply’s in 30mins no doubt it will be broken 

I’ll miss most of the 12z, leaving Chichester at 3:45 to go home. I’ll know fairly quickly if things have gone titsup, as I’m expecting pages of updates if all is good! Nervous journey ahead. 😬

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