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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Yet another GFS scenario being shown..

141 hours - very cold air across our region..
204 hours - marginal upper air creeping in to the South coast.

12Z was slipping away too much South for my liking, 18Z wants to push it too far North, now.

I'm still keeping an open mind, it's just the OP run. The ECM was my favourite tonight.

 

Probably end up in middle between the two which would be epic but more runs needed again. 

Nervous days ahead :blink2:

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This is it South West and Central Southern England members! Your time has come!  Serious cold spell on the horizon - charts/Metoffice update must make great reading for you! I am extremely jealous

Steve Murr’s mother....

One thing I cannot abide on here, is the North/South arguments. You can tell right away that someone is enjoying typing and hitting the send button when you read "Not looking very good for those in th

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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Yet another GFS scenario being shown..

141 hours - very cold air across our region..
204 hours - marginal upper air creeping in to the South coast.

12Z was slipping away too much South for my liking, 18Z wants to push it too far North, now.

I'm still keeping an open mind, it's just the OP run. The ECM was my favourite tonight.

 

But the GFS is constantly trying to revert to warm. Lets see a further run.

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6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Some tripe being spouted in mod thread tonight and even a goat with unknown location bleating out one liners... :rofl:

lol the old north south divide rearing its ugly head.  Baaa

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What Thomaz was saying at 10 40 this evening was that the cold could go on well into March,but in fairness he also said the real cold could go further South,so not a done deal.

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2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

One thing I cannot abide on here, is the North/South arguments. You can tell right away that someone is enjoying typing and hitting the send button when you read "Not looking very good for those in the South" 
If you look at their location, you can see exactly why it was posted. The same happens when someone writes "Not looking good for those in the North" as well. There's simply no need to troll like that, not when we're on the cusp of some exceptional weather that the whole of the British Isles will endure.

Well if this event is prolonged, not many will be 'left out'. 

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Just now, Nights King said:

Not a great mood in mod thread this morning :cc_confused:

ECM has put a little spanner in the works. Short term still frigid but seemingly lose the easterly alot quicker. 

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ECM still looks cold to me, maybe not as cold as some people will like but if the 00z was the final outcome we still hang on to -7c 850s or so, with a reload of cold towards the end of the run from the north east, we all know its going to be different again on the 12z anyway. Can't say I am getting to worried about it for now.

 

ECU0-120.GIF?21-12ECU0-144.GIF?21-12ECU0-168.GIF?21-12ECU0-192.GIF?21-12ECU0-216.GIF?21-12ECU0-240.GIF?21-12

 

 

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.. and I'd probably look for signs of Polar Low on the GFS first and foremost (post 36hrs to event). GFS was always good at picking out disturbances. like depressions that go on to become Hurricanes etc.  Could do with a good blizzard.... 

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I think we still have until Tomorrow evening or even Friday Morning, before the  models have the correct handle on things.

I seem to remember, when in the past we've had a proper cold spell forecast, the models had a small wobble before upgrading again. We still have time for this to happen.

It's still a win win for me anyway due to the time of year. Winter is nearly over & Spring is upon us, longer day's, and the ever increasing chance of thunderstorms.

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