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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Regional

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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted

Decent 06z ENS to be fair, firming up on agreement around 26th-27th of -11 to -15c 850s...

 

t850Gloucestershire.png

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Could you pass the "Challenge 25" in the ground?

Unfortunately yes.... haha 

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Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted
18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Good man, can’t beat a bit of Banter ??

 but you want the quadruple..... if we lose it’s just another nail in Arsene Wengers coffin, if we win i get double drunk! Win win situation ?.

probably be dry as a bone and a snow storm at home!! That’s my luck lol

l’m staying the night as well. I’m OUT OUT 

EFECEC24-510A-4B90-A4BB-1E22ED1BDF28.thumb.jpeg.ba96ea4d00786fd416db30fd11c37762.jpeg

And to make things better we’ve been allocated the Weatherspoons pub. No £5 a pint for me ?

934D2EC6-5FAE-498A-809F-410175684E63.thumb.jpeg.0fa9614e9d19e5a128a54a0bfdb4d39a.jpeg

Shame they have to separate rival fans. Have to say, give their due, Rochdale not only provided an entertaining game, but also made Spurs fans very welcome at their pubs.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

and Ironing boards :spiteful:

Just to clear this up, as I don't want anyone thinking I'm a chauvinist, (I saw a confused like emoji) :ninja:

I hereby show the ultimate sledge!!!

Image result for ironing board sledge 

Edited by karlos1983
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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted

Joking aside a sec ... If we are having the likes of -10+ and over/windchill how do we dress up for that extreme cold?

I know you layer but the simple thermal base layer + fleece on top wouldn't be enough for us petite 7stoners!

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted
3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Joking aside a sec ... If we are having the likes of -10+ and over/windchill how do we dress up for that extreme cold?

I know you layer but the simple thermal base layer + fleece on top wouldn't be enough for us petite 7stoners!

I actually have no idea! It’s going to be fun ?

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Oh wow... latest met office update looks potentially epic!

I nearly changed my profile pic but Ill hold on just a bit longer :bomb::unsure2:

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
5 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Oh wow... latest met office update looks potentially epic!

I nearly changed my profile pic but Ill hold on just a bit longer :bomb::unsure2:

*Grabs Kings hand. Drags him off behind the bike shed ... hold hands ... jumps up and down ... Screams with delight ... Smooth down skirt ... Smooth down hair ... Walk out with straight face*

~ We aren't there yet people. Hold your knickers on ... Only another 4 days until I accept rampidge! Don't get excited yet ...

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Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted
11 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Joking aside a sec ... If we are having the likes of -10+ and over/windchill how do we dress up for that extreme cold?

I know you layer but the simple thermal base layer + fleece on top wouldn't be enough for us petite 7stoners!

I work in an unheated barn. Best not put the thermals away

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

I work in an unheated barn. Best not put the thermals away

You have time to polifillar the gaps! :-D

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EllyTech Rising Star

EllyTech

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
Posted
15 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Just to clear this up, as I don't want anyone thinking I'm a chauvinist, (I saw a confused like emoji) :ninja:

I hereby show the ultimate sledge!!!

Image result for ironing board sledge 

I confess, 'twas me. Now that you show the concept, I get it. :pardon::crazy::clap:

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
Just now, Frosty hollows said:

Beka..you're going to run out of likes by tonight! :rofl:

 

Meanwhile off to the barn and making the most of 11.3 c. He'll I might even open a window

EVERY DAY I DO!!!!

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
Just now, *Stormforce~beka* said:

EVERY DAY I DO!!!!

Somehow I don’t, although if things do get very interesting in the coming days that might change. 

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

OH MY GOD... @Nights King is almost ramping... now all we need is @Mapantz on board... I’m going to have s heart attack at this rate through nervous exhaustion 

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EllyTech Rising Star

EllyTech

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
Posted

I was going to keep my thoughts to myself as I'd actually really like spring to arrive. However it really does look a constant that Eastern blocking heaves up deep cold, an Easterly. However, what I think truly is in debate is; how cold, how wet (snow), for who and exactly when? The IMBY turbodrive in the MAD thread is in an emotional tug of war with sense, working it all out.

We might find ourselves baltic but dry conditions (might!). The current Jet model showing a fetch from the North, having traversed the deep moisture from mid Atlantic.. delivered down (at least) the Eastern side of the UK right now.... and that isn't really in the picture for the cold event, but thought it worth a mention as the Jet is part of the (Baroclinic?) set up, going forward.

So in short, there could be dramatically low dew points and along with that, very cold air across us. Is it easier to keep warm when the air is dry? Power snow from that? Diamond dust .. who doesn't yearn for those conditions?

Someone will set me straight if I've had a senior moment whilst interpreting.  ;)

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

There are some pessimists in the Mod Thread today.... it's driving me bonkers!! - So I feel I have no option but to highlight a couple of things

I am no expert and do not claim to be, I just enjoy the output as much as the next person! 

GEFS ens - for a location that is a stones throw away from a beach on the Central South Coast!!

image.thumb.png.681c649b8aa03800a7ab4b72d9053499.png

extended - same location (Near the Beach on the South Coast!!! no less!)

image.thumb.png.bf40d8ff367d3adc5a0ab25da8030d22.png

ECM ens 2m Temps 

image.thumb.png.cced01a87beb67cc4776c87265029f13.png

Met Office -  Check :cold:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

The Strat - is in a complete mucking fuddle

tempresult_azl3.gif

How cold, how snowy, how long it goes on for all open to debate!

If someone wants to counter my thoughts and show me a route to mild against the above Data (in the reliable), be my guest! I'm all ears..

Edited by karlos1983
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

^^^ watch the 12z go Pear shaped now :rofl:

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

There are some pessimists in the Mod Thread today.... it's driving me bonkers!! - So I feel I have no option but to highlight a couple of things

I am no expert and do not claim to be, I just enjoy the output as much as the next person! 

GEFS ens - for a location that is a stones throw away from a beach on the Central South Coast!!

image.thumb.png.681c649b8aa03800a7ab4b72d9053499.png

extended - same location (Near the Beach on the South Coast!!! no less!)

image.thumb.png.bf40d8ff367d3adc5a0ab25da8030d22.png

ECM ens 2m Temps 

image.thumb.png.cced01a87beb67cc4776c87265029f13.png

Met Office -  Check :cold:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

The Strat - is in a complete mucking fuddle

tempresult_azl3.gif

How cold, how snowy, how long it goes on for all open to debate!

If someone wants to counter my thoughts and show me a route to mild against the above Data (in the reliable), be my guest! I'm all ears..

As a matter of interest has anybody mentioned mild?

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EllyTech Rising Star

EllyTech

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

^^^ watch the 12z go Pear shaped now :rofl:

I guess most of us are aware that the GFS has an elastic band drawn from zonal/warm, and stretched really to snapping point when it comes to getting cold in. I'm sure, of all the models, the GFS will sling one or two spanners at us.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

As a matter of interest has anybody mentioned mild?

I've not said they have I don't think.... Just trying to focus on more southern areas, which wouldn't be fair to do in the Mod thread, might upset a few Northern members :ninja:

Edited by karlos1983
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I've not said they have I don't think.... 

No but  you said this which I thought a bit odd

Quote

If someone wants to counter my thoughts and show me a route to mild against the above Data (in the reliable), be my guest! I'm all ears..

because as far as I'm aware getting colder is done and dusted, the question of how cold isn't of course, and on the snow question we will need to wait awhile.

Edited by knocker
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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted

How's everyone holding up? This week is a marathon of model watching. I'm currently in a repressed state of excitement but am holding it together just.....

Think by Wednesday I'll pucker up, brush my hair, but my best winter clothing on,  be brave down a gin and ask @*Stormforce~beka* for a visit to the back of the bike sheds.............

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