South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[khodds]

Just a thought; who is providing the BEEB with their forecast data now then? 

[karlos1983]

Just now, khodds said:

Just a thought; who is providing the BEEB with their forecast data now then? 

Meteogroup ! And they are shocking! 

Edited February 18, 2018 by karlos1983

[khodds]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Meteogroup ! And they are shocking! 

Oh dear ?. So our own beloved Ian might not be seeing what the Meto are seeing then? Hence the forecasts being dire? I wonder if the they were still with the meto whether the beeb forecasts would be more bullish by now? It’s probably far too early days I guess

[festivalking]

In a week where runs will be checked every 6 hrs and furrowed brows become grimaced followed by relief and sometime joy we need a potential incoming cold weather survival kit....

Gin

Valium 

Sense of humour

err...Gin

Should just about cover it

Edited February 18, 2018 by festivalking

[festivalking]

Just now, khodds said:

Oh dear ?. So our own beloved Ian might not be seeing what the Meto are seeing then? Hence the forecasts being dire? I wonder if the they were still with the meto whether the beeb forecasts would be more bullish by now? It’s probably far too early days I guess

I bet the likes of ian are distraught they have to use substandard weather models now

[karlos1983]

Just now, festivalking said:

I bet the likes of ian are distraught they have to use substandard weather models now

I was thinking that. I wonder if he has any red tape preventing him from saying what he actually thinks? 

He still works for the Met office doesn’t he?

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I was thinking that. I wonder if he has any red tape preventing him from saying what he actually thinks? 

He still works for the Met office doesn’t he?

I had assumed that all former MO employees have been taken on by the BBC. Suspect he still has the pass codes for the mets super computer 

[khodds]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I was thinking that. I wonder if he has any red tape preventing him from saying what he actually thinks? 

He still works for the Met office doesn’t he?

I’m not sure.. if his forecasts are on the beeb then probably not I wouldn’t of thought?

[festivalking]

5 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m not sure.. if his forecasts are on the beeb then probably not I wouldn’t of thought?

The fact that the BBC has taken on former met office employees makes a mockery of the claim that going to meteogroup saved them money.

 

[Gibby]

Well as some of you may know I give a forecast every morning and night on my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page and on a Sunday night a look at two weeks ahead which has proved very popular with the page followers. I’ve just posted tonight’s and no way was I gonna suggest snowy Armageddon at 7-10 days out whatever the models show. In fact I tried to highlight the chance of a UK based cold High as possible too. Probably won’t be too popular with my snow revellers who surprisingly enough are mostly ladies.

[khodds]

3 minutes ago, Gibby said:

Well as some of you may know I give a forecast every morning and night on my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook page and on a Sunday night a look at two weeks ahead which has proved very popular with the page followers. I’ve just posted tonight’s and no way was I gonna suggest snowy Armageddon at 7-10 days out whatever the models show. In fact I tried to highlight the chance of a UK based cold High as possible too. Probably won’t be too popular with my snow revellers who surprisingly enough are mostly ladies.

Very sensible Gibby! Never let me loose on a forecast ?

Whats your take on the latest? Are you stockpiling yet?!

[Gibby]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

Very sensible Gibby! Never let me loose on a forecast ?

Whats your take on the latest? Are you stockpiling yet?!

No way. Not till t6hrs?

[Leon1]

im too confused again can i have a quick summary please, i think its still good but the ecm has backed off a bit?

[karlos1983]

17 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

im too confused again can i have a quick summary please, i think its still good but the ecm has backed off a bit?

ECM although cant be discounted and was still a stonking run, was kind of on its own in terms of pressure for the uk. 

so that suggests that the high will more likely be positioned further north, lowering pressure ( to a degree) over the uk and more of an easterly flow. It’s all good. Just a variation of output And that is likely to continue. Theme still on course! 

Edited February 18, 2018 by karlos1983

[festivalking]

16 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

im too confused again can i have a quick summary please, i think its still good but the ecm has backed off a bit?

No one really knows. We have weather coming from the east. It will be colder than now but the depth of cold is up for grabs. Individual runs will be different. But the trend is similar. Sorry we won' know for at least another 3 or 4 days

[Leon1]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

ECM although cant be discounted and was still a stonking run, was kind of on its own in terms of pressure for the uk. 

so that suggests that the high will more likely be positioned further north, lowering pressure ( to a degree) over the uk and more of an easterly flow. It’s all good. Just a variation of output And that is likely to continue. Theme still on course!

for some reason i don't feel excited, i bet its because of the killkoys pointing out everything bad in the mad thread making it seem worse than it really is  

[matt111]

5 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

for some reason i don't feel excited, i bet its because of the killkoys pointing out everything bad in the mad thread making it seem worse than it really is  

Well the 18z quickly put that right, at least in the earlier stages. And just as  @Catacol said last night, it's moved the cold even further forward. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by matt111

[karlos1983]

Just now, Leon1 said:

for some reason i don't feel excited, i bet its because of the killkoys pointing out everything bad in the mad thread making it seem worse than it really is  

Yeah that will happen. It’s extremely busy in there at the moment and a lot of varying views will come across. Plus in this setup it’s the lower half of the uk that will benefit initially, so might find some disgruntled northern members. But hey, they should try being a southerner!!! We are well placed, we have margin for error! If/when Heights transfer to Greenland, more northern areas will fair better and we run the risk of getting cut off from any cold flow once areas of low pressure start pushing up against the block! Of course that could bring us some fun initially ?. I prefer an easterly!!!!

[khodds]

I wish I could step away from all this for 24+ hours.. but I just can’t ?

[matt111]

Just now, khodds said:

I wish I could step away from all this for 24+ hours.. but I just can’t ?

I can't step away for 24 minutes. 

[karlos1983]

Just presume I like all your posts!! I’m clean out! Lol 

[Leon1]

okay i am a little more excited now from the gfs 18z!!!!!

[khodds]

2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

I can't step away for 24 minutes. 

Me either! I don’t know how I’m going to work tomorrow  I will need to give my phone to someone to hide until lunchtime 

[nettie]

Been glued to the forums past 3 days . I can't put my tablet down for more than 10 mins without refreshing.  Driving the other half nuts.

[khodds]

1 minute ago, nettie said:

Been glued to the forums past 3 days . I can't put my tablet down for more than 10 mins without refreshing.  Driving the other half nuts.

Me too! I’m sure he thinks I’m having an affair ?