South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[Nights King]

5 minutes ago, khodds said:

Killjoy ??

Just cast your mind back the last 8 years and tell me last time it didn't..? 

Stay on the ground I tell you 

[festivalking]

Moaning mini time. Being we are all friends hoping to get away with it. So this upcoming cold spell that might happen. If it does yes it will be cold but snow is a different issue those in the east of the region might get some snow showers but surely on an easterley fetch anywhere west of say Poole up to Warminster and Cheltenham will struggle to get anything. The only way I think (tell me I'm wrong) that something properly falling is an undercut or the Atlantic bumping in which is then fraught with danger.

Model or winter fatigue hitting home!

 

[offerman]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Moaning mini time. Being we are all friends hoping to get away with it. So this upcoming cold spell that might happen. If it does yes it will be cold but snow is a different issue those in the east of the region might get some snow showers but surely on an easterley fetch anywhere west of say Poole up to Warminster and Cheltenham will struggle to get anything. The only way I think (tell me I'm wrong) that something properly falling is an undercut or the Atlantic bumping in which is then fraught with danger.

Model or winter fatigue hitting home!

 

Or possible trough in the easterly flow ?

[festivalking]

Just now, offerman said:

Or possible trough in the easterly flow ?

Be some trough to get down this far. But yes that is another option ?

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Moaning mini time. Being we are all friends hoping to get away with it. So this upcoming cold spell that might happen. If it does yes it will be cold but snow is a different issue those in the east of the region might get some snow showers but surely on an easterley fetch anywhere west of say Poole up to Warminster and Cheltenham will struggle to get anything. The only way I think (tell me I'm wrong) that something properly falling is an undercut or the Atlantic bumping in which is then fraught with danger.

Model or winter fatigue hitting home!

 

Well with the instability I’ve seen on some charts, if they were to come off not even the welsh mountains could stop them. Likely to band together. 

Just got back from footy, and saw another fantastic GFS run...... then I looked at the ens..... I don’t have enough superlatives for this graph 

D6/7 mean showing uppers of -11!!! WTF! 

Edited February 18, 2018 by karlos1983

[khodds]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

Be some trough to get down this far. But yes that is another option ?

It’s 

 

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well with the instability I’ve seen on some charts, if they were to come off not even the welsh mountains could stop them. Likely to band together. 

Just got back from footy, and saw another fantastic GFS run...... then I looked at the ens..... I don’t have enough superlatives for this graph 

D6/7 mean showing uppers of -11!!! WTF! 

I’m going to run out of likes today!

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m going to run out of likes today!

LOL

looks like I’ve got some catching up to do ?‍♂️

Edited February 18, 2018 by karlos1983

[festivalking]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well with the instability I’ve seen on some charts, if they were to come off not even the welsh mountains could stop them. Likely to band together. 

Just got back from footy, and saw another fantastic GFS run...... then I looked at the ens..... I don’t have enough superlatives for this graph 

D6/7 mean showing uppers of -11!!! WTF! 

I guess in the back of my mind I'm thinking if we hit the jackpot getting uppers of -10c and we still don't get amazing snow (A flurry doesn't count) then at what condition can we get snow. Is all this chasing a never ending chase?

 

[jy]

A  Channel low would have been the historical answer I guess,they are a rare breed these days,in answer to a letter I wrote to the Met Office about our area years ago about snow delivering wind direction,their answer actually was NE,make of that what you will.

[snowdog]

33 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Moaning mini time. Being we are all friends hoping to get away with it. So this upcoming cold spell that might happen. If it does yes it will be cold but snow is a different issue those in the east of the region might get some snow showers but surely on an easterley fetch anywhere west of say Poole up to Warminster and Cheltenham will struggle to get anything. The only way I think (tell me I'm wrong) that something properly falling is an undercut or the Atlantic bumping in which is then fraught with danger.

Model or winter fatigue hitting home!

 

Well I live 3 miles north of Poole approx and believe it or not we have had spells of snow  over the years that I have lived here( all my life ).I haven't a clue what the set up is for them to happen I'm afraid.I think the best ones are when you don't expect it to happen.Then at least you don't get disappointed at the last moment.Probably best when you are a child and wake up to a covering of snow without even following any forecasts.

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Is it just me or is this impending cold spell taking forever to get here?   Lol feels like we’ve been talking about it for months?! Really hoping it happens but living on the snowless Isle of Wight not expecting we’ll get any snow at all unfortunately 

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

not expecting we’ll get any snow at all unfortunately 

If some of these charts come off snow would fall in the channel let alone on the island. That’s if it’s not dry of course. 

[jy]

In 2010 the forecast for here said milder air will come in overnight and a thaw will set in,imagine my surprise to see it snowing heavily the next morning,two days later the forecast was the same but again it was snowing hard ,my point being when the cold air is in place,as then,very small margins come into play,really the last snow here of any note March 13 was cold,it did snow,but settled only to a minimal extent,nowhere near what other areas of the country got

[knocker]

Still slight rain, thick fog and sky obscured

[A.J]

1 hour ago, Nights King said:

All these posts of 87 and 47 and all going to get buried are very ott currently.  Still in fi you know it can still go wrong... 

here's a stat for you.....if you add 87 and 47 together, you get 134 which coincidently is the amount of off topic & OTT posts in the MAD thread the past 30 minutes

Edited February 18, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

here's a stat for you.....if you add 87 and 47 together, you get 134 which coincidently is the amount of off topic & OTT posts in the MAD thread the past 30 minutes

Are you getting moderator withdrawals AJ ? it has just taken me the best part of 35-40 mins to read basically the same posts over and over again just from different posters ?‍♂️

[snowysouth]

1 hour ago, festivalking said:

Moaning mini time. Being we are all friends hoping to get away with it. So this upcoming cold spell that might happen. If it does yes it will be cold but snow is a different issue those in the east of the region might get some snow showers but surely on an easterley fetch anywhere west of say Poole up to Warminster and Cheltenham will struggle to get anything. The only way I think (tell me I'm wrong) that something properly falling is an undercut or the Atlantic bumping in which is then fraught with danger.

Model or winter fatigue hitting home!

 

Our best snow in recent times was from an easterly channel low. We had several hours of falling snow from that. If I recall correctly, it wasnt modelled until the last minute. Cold air first, then wait for low pressure. Though it can be VERY painful to watch channel lows stay in the channel. That's happened before too ?

[SteveB]

There is no way I'm telling non weather nuts that we might be heading into the freezer later next week.

I was asked the question last night, and it was a flat NO from me.  I don't care if I have egg on my face this time next week.... if I'm knee deep in snow drifts

[Deep Snow please]

1 hour ago, jy said:

Im fairly Jurassic at all this stuff...a question......what on earth is a sticky note

The button beneath people's posts "Send Sticky Note" is a way of sending a quick message to that poster about there post, it'll pop up on their web page if they are online or next time they come online. The ideas rather than derailing a thread with irrelevant comments those comments can be sent directly to the member concerned, I'll assume it's mean intention is to cut off topic rubbish in the mod thread. 

[karlos1983]

23 minutes ago, SteveB said:

There is no way I'm telling non weather nuts that we might be heading into the freezer later next week.

I was asked the question last night, and it was a flat NO from me.  I don't care if I have egg on my face this time next week.... if I'm knee deep in snow drifts

Me either! Every time I do this the models flip on the next run!!! I’m so tight lipped atm, I just use the “I hate late winter and early spring, so I’m not even looking at the weather” line on anyone that asks me! 

?????

[khodds]

I bet the servers crash at some point this afternoon/evening 

[Leon1]

how many likes and reactions can you use because i think i've ran out rip me  

[SteveB]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Me either! Every time I do this the models flip on the next run!!! I’m so tight lipped atm, I just use the “I hate late winter and early spring, so I’m not even looking at the weather” line on anyone that asks me! 

?????

We've become wise to the fickle world of model watching haven't we , it's only taken many many let downs for it to finally sink in DON'T TELL ANYONE

[khodds]

6 minutes ago, khodds said:

I bet the servers crash at some point this afternoon/evening 

...and they just did ?

[khodds]

4 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

how many likes and reactions can you use because i think i've ran out rip me  

I really don’t know but I recon I’m nearly out too....