South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[Mapantz]

Remember though.. you're not to get on board until i'm fully on board. LOL

[karlos1983]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Remember though.. you're not to get on board until i'm fully on board. LOL

I feel we need a Mapantz red/orange/amber/green/ONBOARD scale in place 

[DanDorsetUK]

Omfg not seen anything like this ever befoe can this really happen. Total perfection. I dream of seeing such an event in my lifetime!

[matt111]

And I thought 2010 was good... 

[Bazray]

Even the Moderators on the mad thread are ramping it up and our own Catacol whom if I remember rigntly was the first to point this SSW event out what seems like an age ago. Unbelievable stuff

Edited February 17, 2018 by Bazray

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

And I thought 2010 was good... 

Looks dry though ?

[matt111]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks dry though ?

That phrase is banned. 

Unless you mean nice dry powder snow of course. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by matt111

[DanDorsetUK]

Proper blown away tonight by that run never thought I'd see such charts again.

[Mapantz]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I feel we need a Mapantz red/orange/amber/green/ONBOARD scale in place 

OK - I knocked this together..

[Jason74]

Those charts are a thing of beauty. 

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

OK - I knocked this together..

And your survey says .......

[Mapantz]

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Ditto, good call lol

[nettie]

Can I get excited  now? 

[dec10snow]

Wow those 18zs are just utter madness, I love the mad thread when everyone is how they are tonight!!

The easterly goes all the way across to Canada on the GFS!!!!!!!!! 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, matt111 said:

And I thought 2010 was good... 

In all seriousness this could eclipse Dec 2010. 2010 was notable for the temp across the month... but at no stage was there snow as deep as might come if these trends and charts verify. I'm trying hard not to get over excited - and in weather watching we all know that patterns can change and we might end up disappointed - but this current pattern suggests the greatest chance for substantial snow in the south of England for a very long time indeed. Feb 1996 brought some localised heavy snowfall on an undercut with the cold lasting several days afterwards.... but this could see heavy snow in around 10 days time that would beat that rather localised event.

Be prepared for downgraded charts over the next 2 days - but actually the op runs arent what matter. Of far greater significance is the combined impact of stratospheric warming - currently progressing as expected broadly - and then pacific profiles centred around the MJO and GLAAM. These are not so supportive of high lat blocking - but currently the pacific is not acting as a negative force either.... kind of in neutral. If we can hold a pacific pattern in neutral (signified by a positive AAM signature) for another week on top of the warming profile then I think we are home and dry for the block. After that it is all about frontal systems, angle of attack and convective streams from the east.

Fingers crossed. No current NWP, teleconnective forecast or human calculated impact looks likely to knock us off course. As Chio has said - best model runs of the internet age.

[A.J]

my missus asked me what the weather would be like for the next couple of weeks......I told her mild and damp.....just to be on the safe side 

[khodds]

MORNING ALL!!! It’s 3.25am.. just finished work, what have I missed..?! Wakey wakey!!

[EllyTech]

I don't think for a minute it will surpass 2010. (insomniac's thought for the, day). In that particular winter, we had the sea freeze, icicles as big as baseball bats hanging from house guttering. Waterfalls completely frigid and sea front park benches and parked cars, entombed in a foot thick sarcophagus of frozen of sea spray. Aside from that, main roads with 8 inches of compact snow/ice so cold, the salt had no effect on it at all, yes, some snow next week would be welcome.  

[Nights King]

1 hour ago, khodds said:

MORNING ALL!!! It’s 3.25am.. just finished work, what have I missed..?! Wakey wakey!!

I'm sat in the departures lounge. Expect downgrades by the 12z upon my return. 

[Nights King]

1 hour ago, EllyTech said:

I don't think for a minute it will surpass 2010. (insomniac's thought for the, day). In that particular winter, we had the sea freeze, icicles as big as baseball bats hanging from house guttering. Waterfalls completely frigid and sea front park benches and parked cars, entombed in a foot thick sarcophagus of frozen of sea spray. Aside from that, main roads with 8 inches of compact snow/ice so cold, the salt had no effect on it at all, yes, some snow next week would be welcome.  

Yes the sun is also a lot higher end of Feb into March... 

Can't see ice days without cloud cover really. 

Edited February 18, 2018 by Nights King

[knocker]

Moderate rain, fog, sky obscured and a westerly breeze.

[festivalking]

3 hours ago, Nights King said:

Yes the sun is also a lot higher end of Feb into March... 

Can't see ice days without cloud cover really. 

It is now illegal in this country to be pessimistic on netweather when freezing weather is predicted. The fact it' early where you are will mean you are let off with a caution. 

I'll risk arrest by saying I worry for a downgrade as the charts can't get any better....

[karlos1983]

Morning  

 

[Dorsetbred]

17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Morning  

 

Is that it?